EP161 - Verizon Enterprise Solutions GVP, Michele Dupre
Episode 161 is an interview with Michele Dupre, GVP of Verizon Enterprise Solutions, live the National Retail Federation Big Show. We cover a variety of topics including:
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Episode 161 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, January 15th, 2019.
New beta feature - Google Automated Transcription of the show
[0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this episode is being recorded on Tuesday, January 15th 2019 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your.
[0:37] Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners we are joining you live live live from the floor of NRF 2019 Big Show here in the lovely Javits Center in New York City.
And we are in part 2 podcast Booth A and B I don't know what they're doing but they is where all the action is.
[0:56] Yeah if they keep doing a good job maybe they'll earn their way up to Booth a at some point.
[1:00] It's pretty much the gold tier here at at.
So we are excited to have on the show with us Michelle Duprey she is the group vice president at Verizon Enterprise solutions for retail hospitality and distribution.
So not only is she an awesome guess she has a longer title than you Jason which is just saying something.
[1:18] That's our new private area for gas is only a guess that have longer titles than me.
[1:22] Well there you go I think I fit the bill then.
[1:25] Will you tell appreciate you taking some time out to talk with us today Michelle tradition on the show we always like to start by getting a little bit of background about yourself and how you came to your roll.
[1:36] Yeah absolutely and again thanks for thanks for having me here today and then again we're really excited to be part of.
To be part of an Arab but where it where I started my journey with Verizon and just again the retail industry and how it's evolved.
So I do have responsibilities for the team that works with some of the largest and most recognized Global Brands not only in retail but also distribution and travel so,
you know again we service those clients globally we work with them to help them service there,
customers better but again my journey started with with Verizon a long time ago and it's evolved over,
yeah several years in different roles but really focusing on the Enterprise customer and you know again with the technology Evolution that clearly you see on the floor of a giraffe,
how you can see why Verizon continues to Young to evolve itself and continues to you no respond to the ever-changing needs of their customers.
[2:33] Cool and then so tell a suit so I get Verizon Enterprise Solutions and it sounds like you guys are vertical eyes didn't in any retail is there article we want to talk about today.
So so I'll just ask him some newbie questions just kind of soda does that mean the Verizon stores themselves you work with them or know you're selling more stuff to retail.
[2:50] No so we we go to market with in a retail meeting you know how we serve our consumers so the retail sector within Verizon I don't have responsibility for,
but again it's just that is becoming you know one of the test beds and again where we gain a lot of insight,
you know to what consumer demands are and do it all we've done a fabulous jobs over over the years just to get you no evolving and really working on providing that.
Yeah that great customer experience within the physical environment,
but also within our digital environment as those demands continue to grow to for the way consumers want to engage with our brand so you know we do a fabulous job and again it's a test bed,
I mean it's a great source of information for us to get our just again test the market and see what what what else is out there.
[3:40] Kosama soccer guy so let me restate that so you guys have these Solutions in your Verizon stores,
and you kind of dog food them outright you figure out what's working there and then you can go to another retailer and say hey JCPenney or you know whoever hears some best practices around
obviously conductivity but yeah when I go to Verizon store it's really nice to have like that dude with the tablet so I have positional awareness of where I am,
you know I think the cash register kind of like they have them but they kind of anyone can check me out it is that kind of what we're talking about.
[4:12] Yeah I mean I think it's two-fold I think it's exactly what you just said is that it's it's an opportunity for us to learn but it's also when we launch new products and services that we think are fit-for-purpose and again specific to retell,
Amino gives us the opportunity to do a sanity check to see are we on the market is it scalable,
you know beyond didn't and I think the other point about tablets that was you know getting Evolution that we recognized as a retailer very early on to get outside of you have behind the counter and get
in front of our customers and service that more effectively with a tablet and you know you look at retailers that continues to UNLV a widely adopted,
it'll application the way that they're serving their customers and brick-and-mortar.
[4:55] So when the reasons I'm excited to have you today is wheat wheel update on the show.
Are not around holiday time we get data from a bunch of sources about how consumers were behaving butterfly in a lot of the data sets that we get out of it it's heavily skewed towards desktop to use.
And I know you guys published some some insight about a holiday Shoppers and I'm guessing you're going to tell me that your data set.
Encompasses a lot more mobile users as well.
[5:31] Yes we did on the 5th year that we launched the holiday retail index in it and it does include you know focuses on the top 25 retailers e-commerce,
and attracts Broadband traffic so what I would say is that regardless of I think the mobile,
engagement continues to grow year-over-year I don't think that this Statistics behind how that consumers engaging really is you know it isn't any different so I think you know whether they're behind a desktop or whether they're on a phone
I'm again it's about the convenience but I think overall what the takeaway is is at the digital aspect of a consumer,
do you have their engagement with their brands that's where the the the traffic is significantly increased year-over-year.
[6:14] Got you and what were some of the top line inside from the study.
[6:17] Yeah so again like I said this is the fifth year that time that we've had the index in in what made this year very unique is just that.
The sheer volume of traffic that we saw starting November 1st so it was almost like you know Halloween was just a note in a dusted and over,
and right away came November 1st and every retailer had a full-on,
you know launch around you know just holiday and we also saw a heavier in again this is not associate with the index but again the other additional research that we do behind.
In a behind-the-scenes is that it was creating that experience for the anticipated and not coming holiday so that we saw the season get off to really really quick start,
I saw significant growth over you know 2017 and you know it.
[7:06] Throughout November we saw it you know just again significant growth patterns leading up to Thanksgiving which was a little bit unusual compared to last year,
of course Black Friday Saturday leading into Cyber Monday were really strong but that we saw significant weakness which again if you look at,
you know everything that's been reported on it's pretty you know it's consistent with what we saw you know early on in the in the holiday season so,
that continued and then absolutely we saw there was you know there's traffic and it was over the weekend she saw this you know that.
Natural Spike of when consumers are you know shopping and at home,
and then it kind of fell again petered off and then that last week right before Christmas just again it rallied up pretty strongly till the end.
[7:55] I call that the procrastinator pop that's that's where my shopping list how about you Jason.
[7:59] I'm super a proactive so I did everything on Prime day.
Add event listener believes that I have a bridge to sell you.
Do you have a I'm curious like so it feels like you're you're about eating some of the other day that we've seen that light.
The front half of holiday sort of over index versus previous years and the very end of holiday may have been,
under indexing versus the the growth we would traditionally expect.
[8:29] Yeah I mean I take the the the front half of the Season again and I think the season I think for you know it starts November 1st I mean I think historically it's just everyone rallied and it started,
are the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and then let into that weekend and that was the end of the end I'll be off but again I think you see this constant beat of the drum of consumer engagement,
and I ate it again I think it was really strong the first you know what I'd say November and then again we just saw this with this law,
the other piece that was interesting when you look at the statistics in the den,
you know Sunday seems to be one of those days you know where we saw you know we didn't see strong.
Yeah I was down here over here so I think that that's a consistent pattern and and they get I think that the opportunity for all retailers just to really Digest,
you know what what did they now throughout the entire season how are agile were they to respond,
and then going into 2019 in the planning season which they obviously already are is like what can they learn from it what do they have to do differently.
[9:32] Yeah I feel like one the ramifications we've already seen is there some retailers that like you know gave these like
midseason snap shots and they felt kind of Rosie and they probably raised investor expectations and now we're seeing the first rounds of like Ernie announcements and some of those earnings announcements aren't quite as rosy it feels like those retards are getting by.
A little extra punishment.
[9:54] Yeah it ain't and I do think because they saw strong a gagement on the front end you know I take absolutely you know that you know you would have you would assume that it would carry through the entire the entire season.
[10:06] So do you have a hypothesis for why I got a little softer like our people just Scott and I side more proactive and shopping earlier or did something happen that like there was less consumer confidence that I've talking to shut that I don't know.
[10:19] Yeah I know there could have been some distraction just in general but again consumer confidence I tagged you know absolutely it was there and,
yeah I think what we're going to find at the end of the season is that they're they're absolutely there are.
Some have been reported is that they've had really strong holiday seasons and then you know others I think they were probably a little bit,
yeah I'm taken aback by the by the end results because of the do you know the the traffic they saw in the front end so I think it's it's it's how they pivot
I think it's that the challenge that they all have going forward whether you had a fantastic holiday season it's just like well how do you repeat that because then you have the challenge there is that you got to set the right expectations. Going into the full you now to 2019,
and you know how do you repeat that going into you know holiday next year what's your this year actually.
[11:11] We call it comping the comp Center.
You might want to take a job after they had a soft here is my advice to listeners any thing that came out of holiday that like surprised you or that you think is a common misperception that.
[11:28] Yeah I think the piece that surprised it again I think it's it goes back to how a retailer is getting creative around,
you know engaging engaging our customers and it again I spoke to it a little bit earlier about just that the preseason kickoff for that November 1st it was is,
yeah really launched it and either you saw a lot of retailers being creative with,
again creating that experience so a lot of you know push for HomeGoods secreting that great environment whether it was for you know Thanksgiving or even going into you know into Christmas and Hanukkah.
But then but then also it's just being able to deliver that great customer experience so they're really good at the creative aspect of how do you get a how do you engage,
you saw a lot of flash sale so that time-bound engagement.
And I think overall I think retailers are really getting to become more intimate with their customers and understanding what their likes our understanding what their you know engagement patterns are through loyalty programs,
any adoption you know in that space it just in the maturity and I think you know five years ago I think consumers were a little bit so you know.
[12:39] Some of the aspects of knowing them a little bit too intimately were creepy and I think for the most part I think consumers are way beyond that.
Any on the other pieces is that once you have someone engage you don't want to just keep that consumer and gauge for the holiday season you want them to become a brand loyalists.
Post Holiday Inn for you know it ternity.
[13:02] Closer I get that you guys aggregate all the stated and you get some insights,
fur individual retailers can you provide them some some information that helps them to better so so it seems like you could,
yeah if you guys are running the network in a store you could say Hey you had this many people on the network and they were super active or.
They your network was too weak we need to up the bandwidth of the network and then such as like at the that layer even you know,
maybe Jason week we talked a lot about the mobile experience for a lot of retailers has a much lower conversion rate in when someone abuses their phone versus the website kind of a thing,
can you guys provide any insight stop retailer.
[13:41] Yes send it so the index looks at you know it's it's at a macro level and if the data is on on am I so from that standpoint the top 25 it says it is it is what it is
but I think we're retailers have the opportunity and and you know whether it's through their agencies.
You know whether it's through their digital marketing team that they understand their customers.
And I think with some of the you know was a Technologies and in some of the the geofencing and in the Loyalty apps and they're able to make that that intimate connection.
So I think that there is a combination I think it's no one data source.
Will tell you everything you need to be if you're a retailer I think it's it's understanding your customers based on what you know and then obviously looking at you know the external data in a data sources that are available in really mashing that up,
and in determining what is the best you know engagement and how do you engage with those customers on an intimate and personal level.
[14:38] Do you have an opinion about deacons they seem to be like hot five six years ago Starbucks have in every store and when I walk in there pops open the app but then I don't get that experience hardly anywhere else anymore at the seams like beacons are on their way out at.
I'm not an expert on him I thought you may know something.
[14:53] Yeah I mean I think that they've evolved in terms of another they absolutely still exist without a doubt and I think,
they're being used you know and I think this is where 5G will come into play to is just the ability to do stuff to do create this connected environment,
I'm at scale and I think there was some limitations when you look at it you know the cost of the devices the cost of the chipsets like those are the things that I think will really,
help of all this connected community that your retailers will have the opportunity to do but to your question around there because I think what we're it's a vowel from being of knowing who you are cuz I think there's other ways that they understand who their customer base
you know any retailer understands who their customer base is but it's understanding the flow so I think that there's a lot of the location-based applications that retailers are looking at
you know where today how effective is a display within a store how effective is there merchandising strategy in terms of product placement,
so I think that that's really the beat of the behind-the-scenes where they've learned to Leverage,
it wasn't just a customer-facing application but now it's kind of how do I help.
Build a better store environment and is the planogram that we've did you know is it working and do we need to make any modifications based on where the traffic flow is throughout the store.
[16:14] And you mentioned that the magic number letter combo 5G to Jason was just at Cs and here at the floor there's a lot of talk about 5G,
what started the thirty thousand foot level for for listeners that may not know what is 5G when's it coming and you know obviously five seems better than four or.
Is it 20% is it 20% better so and then not only is it faster but are we can get more coverage and maybe give us the high-level pitch on 5G.
[16:43] Yeah absolutely so again where it you know if you were at CSU you saw Hans and hopefully you saw hands on the on the our CEO.
Take the main stage for a keynote so we we strongly believe that it is again it's the Next Generation,
and it's the Next Generation from Tuesday and Finds Its what is that it's a new not you know it is the next Generation Network,
but it also will be so connected to the Next Generation device and whether that's a you know smartphone whether it's a you know iot device but again that's the pervasiveness of how we see,
the technology being deployed you know I think that there is absolutely the opportunity to get a 4G is not going away.
I'm so I think it will be complimentary and I think what you'll be able to do is really look at aplacate at the application truly at the edge and take advantage of edge computer.
What you getting that and other environments it just it was prohibited to be able to you know to do that so we're super excited about where the industry is going we're absolutely,
yeah positioned ourselves to be you know continue to be a leader in you know with 5G and Innovation and I think you know this industry,
we see it just unbelievable opportunity for them to be able to take advantage of it you know in the very near future.
[18:03] Stone example of like the edge thing is an autonomous car can do a lot of processing and then you cuz 5G so fast it can it can do offload more that to the cloud,
and you instead of kind of today those cars have to go doc overnight just to kind of get the data kind of give up into a cloud for processing and that kind of thing so it's is that kind what you mean by.
[18:23] Yeah absolutely I mean it takes it because if you think about what you know it's everything has been connected and iot we've been talking about for years and.
And you know it's the latency in the speed so when you push everything out to,
I'm out to the yeah just like that's where that kind of all comes the intersection no pun intended to the car analogy but it just that's where it all comes together and you know that I think that we see what the future can bring,
but I think it was a challenge that we threw out to the community is you don't help us cuz they had and there's tremendous amount of incredibly intelligent.
Visionary people that are out there and again we want them to help us you know crafty yeah the art of the possible.
[19:09] And then tell us what is 5G do you think mean for stores because a lot of stories I go into they have the Wi-Fi but it's like always a hassle right you have to go in find it and.
Does it connect you have to agree to terms and so it's not as seamless as you know if if I had not know if you know Wi-Fi level speed off of a of a network.
I'm totally against all that but then like what kind of store experiences are you a retailer thinking about that 5G will name.
[19:34] Yeah I think I think what will enable them and again it goes back to their the technology exists today but you think about video and you think about just the ability to look at an analyzed again whether it's this get out of simple model of
understanding flow traffic.
I was in the store but then also looking for characteristics of you know again what consumers,
are they might be wearing and we have yeah we've launched the 5G Labs of which were doing a lot of different,
you know again elevation around what does it mean and in one of the applications that were showing there is again that's it there's two that I think a really that are that will take off will they all take off but the ones I think are really relevant,
I miss being able to identify someone who walks in a store and the example is that they have yellow logo to a sports logo shirt.
And being able to identify that and then going back to your you know your comments about engagement is like well how do you personalize we know that you like,
a certain brand of sports attire you know apparel so that they can engage with you and whether it's you have some type of promotional activity,
I'm just again making that much more personal I think is but is identifying what are the patterns that you see with that and you just you can't do that today it's got it just the.
[20:57] Requirement for bandwidth latency speed and just the cost of Entry is just it it's it doesn't it's just not there so we see that continually to to evolve.
[21:07] Go to Jason walks in wearing his Lululemon pants and it says we see your Lulu enthusiastic come over to this part of the store to learn more.
[21:16] Alternatively it might say we see you and we women pants and willing to pay you not to.
[21:20] Please check the store security security.
[21:23] Fitbit could make product recommendations to the alternative the absolutely.
[21:27] Exactly so I want to turn to win the last Topic in it.
It's a good-news-bad-news thing for the industry after you guys enjoy this particular a good reputation in the security space so so Verizon Enterprise Security Services but the bad news is.
The reason you're always mentioned is some retailer gets breached and then you that they didn't hire Verizon the problem I feel like I've seen too many press releases where like you were the dissolution.
Can you talk a little bit about where the security services are and what some of the trends are.
[22:05] Yeah absolutely I'm an idiot I think it's you.
Looking at it from the standpoint of what you just you commented on we have an incredibly strong practice around helping you know organizations when you know the Anson couple happen so we're able to go in there and help them.
Intermediate and you know get back to get back to normal but on the front end and again I think that this is one of the important aspect of a good security practice is,
in a really understanding where your wrists are in the business so you know before the unthinkable happens we've created a really strong practice,
I'm at work with a lot of Major Brands not just hit retail cuz it got everyone susceptible to a potential you no compromise and breach in really putting salt leadership around how do we help.
[22:51] Be out the industry identifying you know the potential threats and attacks of the unusual it a traffic and visibility that we see throughout the entire network our Global Network.
And then also you know understanding the patterns that they know that's inclusive to their to their family and two there traffic correlating the two and then also looking for ways to it'll help,
prepare that when and if something does happen that they have the right practice in place,
whether it's notifying and working with the board of directors that's the other PR firms or Communications teams whomever that might be but it's again it's really just building that strong practice,
so when and if something does happen that you're well prepared but what retailers and everyone in the industry yeah they need to do they need to understand what information do they have what day do they have,
where does it set where is it in transit.
[23:45] And never let that information be accessible to anyone in the public and I think it's it's foundational to you no good security hygiene and I think that there is absolutely you know is that the Bad actors as we call them.
Is they continue to get smarter and and you know we have to stay ahead of the game and so does everyone else in yeah we really do work strong with them to do that so it's a growing field it's not going to get any smaller and I think when you look at.
It all Foundation lie to you know the leap from this connected environment that's going to continue to grow,
is it everyone needs to keep that in mind it's just whether year with 4G today and and you're going to create this in krino credible ecosystem of a disconnected environment,
everything you do today is foundational to the next generation of technology so it's really important that.
They know what they have in place today where it is and they have a plan that you know if and when something does happen that they can execute on it very quickly and stay out of the news.
[24:47] We stay out of the news seems like it should be the slogan the it's one of the topics I've heard come up in a lot of the the presentations that the show has has been about this like.
Emerging awareness of trust and how important trust is for Palmer success and obviously these,
these security Miss taps our line of the the easiest ways to lose that trust and as you rightly pointed out.
As connectivity gets better and we moved to 5G and you know we only have more devices they're not part of the customer experience it's a lot more vectors for those Bad actors to attack so I feel like protecting that trust,
is more important than ever and also harder than ever.
[25:30] Yeah I mean it's more complicated and I think it's just understanding you know if you create and live in a complicated environment it just you got to have the security practice.
Yeah the compliments that so you know again it's a 10 think we're going to live in this world if you think about where we were five years ago the adoption of smartphones
it just iot smart vehicle Smart cities you know I think that they would just security is just such an important aspect.
About Evolution and and you know again we're here to help and and will continue to be here to help serve our customers and and really serve the industry.
[26:07] Michele that's going to be a great place to leave it because we have used up our a lot of time but we greatly appreciate you taking time off in the Florida come.
Talk to the listeners and as always if the listeners want to follow up on the conversation we encourage you to jump on our Facebook page and of course we always appreciate those five star reviews on I-10.
[26:26] Michele thanks for joining us do you tweet or if if listeners want to follow some of the thought leadership from Verizon around 5G or security or some of the topics we talked about the retail flavor where should they go.
[26:38] Yeah absolutely so you can go to verizon.com and you can see everything that we're doing across all Industries and I'll practices and we're here today on our Verizon Enterprise
so look for us out there and and yeah we are actively tweeting so.
[26:55] Awesome until next time happy commercing.
EP160 - CES 2019 Recap, and NRF Update
Episode 160 is a recap of the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show, and an update from the Nation Retail Federation Big Show.
Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.
Episode 160 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Monday, January 14th, 2019.
New beta feature - Google Automated Transcription of the show
[0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 160 being recorded on Monday January 14th,
2019 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your clothes Scot Wingo.
[0:40] Jason a welcome back Jason Scott show listeners Jason's is one of those rare episodes where we are actually in the same room.
[0:47] I know it's super exciting I've always enjoyed getting the opportunity to spend some real life time with you.
[0:53] Collie time yeah yeah so we are live live life here from New York City I am looking out of Jason's fancy hotel room and I can see the Empire State Building which is home to many Amazon stores and fulfillment centers near in New York.
[1:08] And there's a Starbucks in that building that delivers.
[1:13] Leave it to Jason to know some Starbucks trivia.
[1:15] I'm desperate to find a way to work in a building.
[1:18] What is January weather in New York City that can only mean one thing we are here for the national retail Federation Big Show that are at Big Show and in that Spirit tonight's theme is trippy parts
are are fearless reporter Jason has been traveling the world to bring you the latest and greatest information about what's going on out there
I'm in first you want to cover he is you went straight back to back I think from Vegas to New York by past the family so
hi and bye guys and he is going to start out with ACS report and tell us what's going on there and then we'll jump it in her up so
what's good to talk Jason with what were some interesting things you saw at CES that had retail implications.
[2:03] Yeah so I feel like there was a fair amount of retail specific stuff at CES this year while the number of retailers had boo,
and so a lot of the Chinese retailers in particular had big boost to TSO Ali Baba had a big boost there for,
Services they would promote in the US are like,
their supplier services in their B2B Services they have a an alternative to AWS in China that they would offer to Western companies that want need to host Platforms in China,
but the bulk and they had one novelty they were showing and a new,
voice translation capability that was real time audio translation so Google kind of made some Buzz at the show by announcing these this new generation of their,
translate that lets you talk in your phone at transposes it in another language,
but you hang your phone into someone they can read it in their language speaking their language and you can kind of hand the phone back and forth so Alibaba came up with this technology we're in real time you talking to him.
And the guy next to you here's a translation in his native language and speech back to you so I got to speak to someone who is in need of Mandarin speaker and like.
[3:29] It mostly worked it's not like the grammar is a little,
monkey but you could totally get the antenna.
[3:35] Is like a translator where you speak and then you pause and it speaks and then the other person speaks and you pause so it's got like that and if you.
[3:42] So that the Google when is the definite pause in this Ali Baba one if you're speaking long enough they will get the translation before you finish.
[3:53] It's hard to like keep your brain going while the things speaking in a foreign language.
[3:59] Intended for remote interactions they're demoing it in a you're standing right next to the person but you are kind of in a isolated Booth so you only heard.
But it's remarkable how well that technology is getting the Star Trek Universal translator is basically here.
[4:18] Or the Babel Fish.
[4:20] Absolutely so but half of Ali Baba's Booth was focused on,
predominantly consumer electronics and Home Products that Ali Baba designs manufactures and sells on the platform so in addition to being a retailer and a service provider,
Alibaba is a product manufacturer and then their own hand sets that are sold in China they have a bunch of like,
smart home appliances and things and their pitches.
[4:51] Is there.
[4:53] Leveraging all the data and warnings from their their voluminous shopping interactions to identify needs in the market and design these products,
and I into a half a booth was dedicated to promoting those products and potentially selling those products in New Markets,
and I say that because that's a amongst all these retailers so jd.com,
which is like the second biggest e-commerce site in China Alibaba zapier Marketplace they don't actually sell their own stuff other than those,
products that they make jd.com is primarily a direct seller so they're more retailer that,
sell wholesale products in China they also had a big booth,
same story half their Booth was dedicated to products manufactured by jd.com sort of reinforcing this theme that,
retailers that had the most intimacy with the consumers have the most inside that they can use to make the most relevant products,
what time is also showing some of the retail technology so,
in China jd.com is doing pretty significant amount of deliveries via drone in so they were showing all their drones.
[6:11] The drum Vehicles usually say drown people.
[6:12] Usually when we say drone people think of the quadcopter that's flying packages and jd.com.
[6:18] Does have a like high payload quadcopter and they claim.
[6:19] Does have a like high payload quadcopter and they claim that they make,
thousands of deliveries a day with these things in in remote villages,
but the way higher volume stuff is they have autonomous vehicles these little mini size Vehicles even smaller than like a smart car that are mostly like storage capacity and it's kind of like,
shopping cart the drive to your house and so those things are kind of interesting they were showing some of the,
version of Amazon go type technology so they have vending machines that use facial recognition and so you've you've basically like storage a WeChat credential,
and you walk up the vending machine you just open the door take whatever you want and it it authenticate you with your face and charges your tencent account.
For the purchases so that was interesting.
[7:15] Alibaba has technology like that too for their The Coloradoan o and said omni-channel they call it online and offline 02.
[7:23] Yeah online to offline and and Alibaba definitely has initiative facial recognition they have pay with a smile that,
like I Smile as a gesture after the face recognition to to initiate transactions I didn't specifically see them demoing that in their Booth this year,
[7:43] The Chinese providers are like big ecosystems of of these interesting Services some oriented at Commerce of some sort of broader than that,
the third Chinese retailer there that would be even less familiar to listeners unless you spend some time in the Chinese market is,
I called sooning and they're the largest brick-and-mortar retail are in China there a conglomerate that owns a bunch of different kinds of stores,
the biggest chain is like 1700 consumer electronics and home appliance store so sort of like a Best Buy in China,
they had a booth and in their Booth they were primarily showing technology that they had developed for experiences inside of retail store,
they were showing produce displays for a grocery store that way all the,
the produce inside they detect when the weight on the Shelf changes so they know an apple got picked up for a banana got picked up and they have a digital sign that shows you,
product content relevant to that banana what form the banana came from how many days it'll be fresh all those sorts of things that a lot of in-store analytics so they were using video system to measure store traffic and I grabbed while time and all that sort of stuff.
[9:01] They had a,
at self-checkout experience they had a virtual try-on experience where your body was mapped in 3D and so they,
apparel on you that's not paper towels in front of you it sort of on your body and is you turn you see the profile and all that sort of stuff so they had all these,
different retail vignette showing technology that they had developed for their stores and what was interesting / peculiar,
a bunch of these people had badges from Palo Alto California from sooning I asked and they said they had a R&D lab in Palo Alto they have no,
that's out of Asia like they're mostly in China that a few stores in like Hong Kong there.
[9:48] There depends in the booth.
[9:49] There comes in the booth they're not trying to sell any of this retail technology to other retailers they're not trying to license anything outside of their home market and so.
[9:58] It baffles me why they would send it.
[9:59] Cuddles me why they would spend a bunch of money and have a booth at CES I mean it,
my Boost at CES just to generate PR going to be Western press.
[10:15] Maybe there are a lot of people go to CS cuz there's the component that is good place to go get little Lego blocks right so maybe they were trying to get,
component vendors to say hey come up with a cheaper screen for our future digital self or something sometime sometimes those kind of conversations.
[10:32] Totally viable that that would be a good place to like find new vendors and show them some of the things they're working on it.
[10:38] Expensive way to do it so well these guys gaited in like a retail technology or like you stumbled upon them as you walk the moon.
[10:46] Yeah mostly you would StumbleUpon I'm so that,
the Busa TSR sort of loosely grouped by use case so most of CES is into big venues the Las Vegas Convention Center which has three big Halls the North Central and South Hall,
and then the Sands convention center which is still called The Sands convention center but it's actually not connected to the Venetian Hotel,
the North Hall in the Las Vegas Convention Center is mostly Automotive so none of the boots I mentioned are there the central Hall is sort of the original CES Hall it's all the television and home entertainment and.
Berkeley the biggest longest running consumer electronic companies have boots and exhibited forever so that the huge Marquee booths in the central Hall are Sony Samsung and LG,
so Ali Baba had a very big boost,
in that Central Hall not quite as big as like those three but the next step down from those three,
The prominent location and I presume that was cuz they were trying to emphasize their home entertainment products predominantly.
Southall was computers audio technology drones and Robotics in their way,
retail Pavilion so none of the.
[12:15] So none of the companies I.
[12:16] Engine wear in the high-tech retail Pavilion the high-tech retail Pavilion was.
[12:21] A small splattering of Technology vendors that had sort of Point Solutions so there was like,
vendor that was doing like virtual makeup there's a vendor that's doing geolocation in the store,
and some reason why even more preferred vendors of vendor that sells vending machines that clean your eyeglasses while you wait that they're trying to sell the retail stores.
In the most Buzzy thing in the in the high-tech retail Pavilion was a bread box in an autonomous Self Service vending machine that bakes the bread and then dispenses freshly baked.
So the bread. Was kind of a hot Buzzy thing but like if you walk this high-tech the billion at CES it feels.
[13:12] Small subset of what you'll be here in New York at the.
[13:13] Subset of what you'll you'd see here in New York at The Innovation Pavilion in inner mouth.
Invite if you're going to exhibit one showing you're one of these small vendors CES does not feel like the right show to meet a bunch of,
retailers that would be interested in your products so I didn't spend a lot of time there sooning and JD were in that Southall,
the so those were all the sort of retail Focus boost and Walmart does have a booth in that Southall that was sort of just outside the high the high tech The Village,
and it's basically their jet booth in it's basically recruiting sellers for the jet / mart Walmart marketplace,
for the first time.
Amazon had went from no real booth at CES that's in small presence in the past and.
[14:09] We've had Marketplace boots where they recruit sellers.
[14:12] Voice Booth before they've had like the treasure truck and then the last several years they,
if that works with Alexa in a million votes in the show 4000 both sent one gaze exhibit space so the first thing they did,
talk about it this on the show before but a gimmick than Amazon does the corporate headquarters is they give away free bananas,
2 employees and random people walking by their headquarters in Seattle,
exhibit hall there was a Amazon banana stand giving away free bananas that just felt like a brand building thing and they had like a social media contest where they're encouraging you to,
tweet out the banana stand and in Winsome Echo prizes.
Did I saw they did not have a Marketplace booth that a dedicated booth in the automotive section talking about Alexa for automotive integration,
I said I was in the North Hall it had the biotin which is a Chinese,
vaporware all electric car that was debuted last year that's a new models this year and Amazon had that in their Automotive section the outside of BMW in there and they're talking about cars that have heavy,
Alexa integration in the dash as the cabin 10.
[15:32] Yes I borrow the Amazon Alexa Auto is supposedly shipping I don't know I couldn't I did not get invited to get in.
[15:40] I confess I did not try I probably should have.
I feel something that I feel like you called me out of the podcast thanks for.
[15:48] You really let here.
[15:49] Exactly the first episode this year that you didn't.
[15:52] Mock my title.
[15:54] You're like mocking me for.
[15:55] I think if you're a chief creative digital strategy officer you would have had this figured.
[16:01] I would have figured out how to get a Amazon how to enter.
Prisoners of the Amazon Auto is a device you can plug into the auxiliary audio input in your car that that sort of,
is a OEM Alexa that you can add to your car the people are up ridiculous got her excited about,
so they had this Auto thing they were that was mostly probably targeted other car manufacturers to you know convince them that they should be using Alexa,
in the Sands Amazon had a huge exhibit,
demonstrating all of the devices that have Alexa integrated into them and that was a super high traffic Booth so Amazon had a huge footprint at the show through all these different booths.
[16:48] That's how you tweeted a toilet from that exhibit.
[16:54] I treated a Kohler toilet that has Amazon in.
[16:58] That was not a.
[16:59] That was not actually in Amazon's Booth it was in coolers booth that we do all definitely need this toilet has a automatic.
Open and close function in so you can use Alexa to put the toilet seat down which could potentially result some marital problems and some some relationships.
[17:14] No problems in some relationships with the.
[17:18] Use case is by.
Just to have an Alexa in your bathroom so you can do things like run the water set the mood lighting play music do you know it's more of a bathroom control than a specific toilet control.
[17:31] But if you ask me it's a pretty crappy integration.
[17:34] Balloon pump.
Fancy bday in it so you can do things like pre-heat your toilet with.
For people that live a different life than I I do.
Send anywhere couple other boots that had some like just interesting retail vignettes in them so Qualcomm is a big chip manufacturer there would have called ingredient company they make,
Epson ink a lot of the devices we use in their most famous for making Wireless chips that are in a lot of the cell phones for a long time they were in Apple phones but now there's a big falling out in so I don't think Apple phones use Qualcomm chips anymore.
Mom was showing a whole set of retail use cases that were.
[18:20] Enhance by the coming internet of things so they made a simulated music festival and they showed examples of digital signs.
[18:30] We're Dynamic can change based on the composition of the crowd they're using video Analytics,
image of the crowd and their departed and they're doing sort of artificial intelligence digital signage based on all of these these signals that the signs were in taking they Envision that you would have morrible beer carts in this music festival,
and all the mobile beer carts knew exactly how much beer they were on had left and they knew,
the crowd was in the area where the cart was in so they could do things like,
say hey we have too much beer over a year in this part of the Pavilion and there's way more demand over here but let's tell the cart to move to where the demand is order replenish,
I meant to do those kinds of things they were showing up pretty robust.
[19:20] Digital fact egg use case which I've talked a lot about my Affinity for digital fact eggs,
downsides of most digital fact exhibitions today is that use proprietary Wireless Solutions so you put these tags on your shelf and you have to buy a hub,
from that manufacture or a bunch of hugs that,
speak over proprietary frequency and protocol to all the tags to Qualcomm things hey these tags are big thing there ought to be a lot more of them but they out of use Open Standards like Wi-Fi mesh and Bluetooth sobaka,
showing some reference designs for that they're showing a lot of video analytics to measure the crowd and know how many people.
[20:02] I was enjoying the music or not and you know they had to use cases where they would change the genre of music is the crab is losing interest and things like that,
yeah so they were they were I wouldn't say any of the customer experience words were perfectly Polished but they were you don't thinking about how.
Well then you could change the retail experience which is which is interesting to me Panasonic.
[20:27] I just wanted to detect when there's more than a hundred people in the store and caught more cash registers.
[20:35] Obviously if you have those video analytics like they're certainly are simple people counters that are they exactly there's too many people in line at the cash register but your.
[20:43] Got your right light.
[20:45] The proactive way to solve that problem is know how many people came in the store know what the average dwell time is and be proactive like once once there's too many people in line it's kind of too late.
[20:54] I feel like there's all these people cuz they're on the mountain they think about all these user experiences and women really nailed some of the basic ones yet down the kind of at the bottom of the mountain.
[21:03] I think that's up for sure theme of these two shows is that so I could see to show a lot of the bells and whistles and there's still a lot of blocking tackling to be one,
Panasonic had a like an additional the Consumer Electronics they were showing a new pickup Locker so a buy online pickup in-store,
at a locker experience.
[21:24] And they're trying to solve.
[21:24] They're trying to solve a very real problem.
Walkers for produce so they had lockers that were refrigerated and lockers that were freezers and so they're in their Vision was,
you buy the groceries they partition your groceries into cold and Frozen,
put them in these refrigerated automated Walkers and so it sort of like Amazon Locker for perishables.
[21:50] That's something that's like active in Japan and they're trying to bring to other countries or is it was.
[21:55] I think the Panasonic probably isn't used anywhere I think it's a brand new product that they Envision selling to retailers so we'll see if that gets any traction they also had like.
A common theme in CES in a shiny bauble a lot of people talk about is blockchain so they had a.
A food cart that was an autonomous vehicle that drove the produce to your house and it had self checkout and it had blockchain for all the produce so you could you know know the,
you could verify the origin of all the produce in them anything was recalled or something like that a little silly and more forward-looking that interesting that they,
spent a bunch of the space and they're super expensive CES Booth to think of these sort of retail vignettes and then much more interesting to me.
[22:46] John always has a big booth there despite the fact that way,
Cameron sales are decreasing dramatically as everyone uses their smartphone but,
built-in their Booth a bunch of,
Instagram photo opportunities and you walk around CES and people were standing in line for like 30 minutes,
picture taken in a bathtub full of yellow ping pong balls or in a swimming pool full of rubber duckies or you know all these these different like super colorful well-lit vignettes and very much reminded me,
might there now he's dead a dedicated Instagram experience tours things like the Ice Cream Factory in San Francisco where people pay forty bucks to,
coincide a venue that has a bunch of pretty sets to take photos of themselves to share on social media in,
it's great experiential we talked a lot with retailers about creating opportunities for digital souvenirs for your Shoppers and it and the Nikon booth just seemed like a particular good example of,
of creating these these digital experience as a sort of mementos of your visit to the booth and it seems like a smart tactic for retailers to be thinking about.
We've heard of some retailers even using the amount of the social media that their physical store generates has a kpi which is interesting and then last.
[24:15] And then last there's a.
[24:18] Avenger there it's been there for a couple years called physics and physics is taking up the mantle of Google Glass so they,
glasses that you wear that have an augmented reality display that are primarily intended for industrial purposes so,
car mechanic to wear that has like schematics of the automobile well while they're working this year they,
they debuted their first consumer product which is $1,000 clone of Google Glass as a much higher res screen that's much bigger,
I wouldn't say it looks any better than Google Glass much more processing power behind it and,
not sure they're ever going to sell a lot of these but it was interesting the created a bunch of vignettes for how people might use them in one of the vignettes was a shopping vignette where you could put on their prototype glasses walk into the setup store,
and they would everything all the product packaging you look at.
[25:22] The physical packaging with digital information like is a gluten-free is a kosher all this sort of things and I do think that,
A for product information is really interesting sort of thing people are way more likely to use their phones that they already own and carry with them than they are to use these for project glasses but it was a nice visualization of the con.
[25:48] Yeah I wanted to tell me where on the Shelf to find it cuz my wife wants a very specific thing and then I spend like the bulk of my time finding that very specific thing.
[25:56] They absolutely did have that use case like we caught wayfinding we're essentially.
You about a list in the the classes have sort of GPS directions saying turn left turn right and walk you to the to your wife's items so she that would definitely approve the wife approval factor in your family.
[26:12] Awesome I need all that I can get.
[26:14] Yeah so that was a lot of the stuff that jumped out at me as being particularly retail specific at the show.
[26:20] Cool and so as you know I've been thinking a lot about the future vehicles and I saw there was tons of interesting news that came out of Cs around
autonomous vehicles in electric vehicles one thing that's kind of the summer I saw lead with the CEO of waymo
was out there saying
hey the sky prior to see us become admitted in an interview with reporter he doesn't see us getting to 100% autonomy so they've been running these vehicles millions of miles even like tens of millions of simulated miles
with the finding are they to do okay in perfect stereos but things like
tree shadows and then as weather gets bad like Randy Rhoads they do really poorly,
it's one of the things I saw out there was kind of more limited autonomous vehicles so shuttle service that will go from point A to point C kind of thing did you see any of those when you write CS.
[27:18] So an interesting Cadence you Tennessee at CES is,
people show very early prototypes of stuff it's not going to be in the market for many years right tires used TV is the sort of example,
before there's ever any content or you could ever buy a TV that has 8K resolution,
there's a bunch of 8K TVs that are kind of Novelties so that when you're when you're you go there and it's like a magic there's a TV with twice as many dots as you've ever seen before you can't buy it for several years but it's cool though.
[27:49] Look at this picture of an apple spinning with some cool water blobs on it.
[27:55] Next year is it gets closer to reality there's there often are way less of those TVs because the the few,
being shown now are,
really store close to release and they're usually pretty rough because even though they've commercialize this TV in the ready to sell it and they have things they didn't have the year before like a price they still lack any content right there.
Of examples and almost feels like it loses traction as it's getting closer to commercialization and then you come to the show the third year and it's like,
ATV 8K TVs are ready for the general public now every TV you see is a k and that's sort of the the the Cadence so in autonomous vehicles last year felt like the year when,
everybody had autonomous vehicles just for the novelty of it and so like,
all the car manufacturers are showing and Thomas Vehicles a bunch of companies we've never heard of where showing autonomous vehicles and all the ingredient companies like Qualcomm and Intel were mainly talking about how their chips are driving autonomous vehicles in video which does a lot of the,
the heavy processing for the vehicle like everybody's talking about it this year.
Middle year there was less autonomous vehicle hype the autonomous vehicles shown.
[29:19] Completely commercialized or ready for Primetime that it felt like the vendors were having more practical conversations with them so it like.
TVs can probably iterate faster than a trama vehicles.
[29:30] Very fast.
[29:33] Saying you shall expect that we're all be driving autonomous vehicles next year but it feels like we're in the middle of that cycle so.
[29:38] Cycle so.
[29:41] The consumer car companies were away last emphasizing that autonomous vehicles the BMW's and in Honda's Ford Tollbooth last year was dedicated to autonomous vehicles that wasn't true this year.
A lot more B2B autonomous vehicle use cases were being shown and it was like public transportation people movers it was a lot of these autonomous drone delivery of package,
on public roads or in hotels are all these different use cases like that in the world bunch of commercials,
like use cases like there's a lot of people that are pitching like,
way before we have truly autonomous vehicles will have commercial trucks that are autonomous on the freeway and they hand over control to a remote operator,
when I get off the freeway for example and so there are more of those kind of use cases.
[30:38] I think it's interesting cuz I'll be a freak we have the news on when I'm like working and I'll hear some talking head come on and say you know,
we should plan on vast unemployment in 5 years cuz of all these we won't need truck drivers and Uber drivers and everything,
we've lived the Commerce experience for 20 years and we're at fitting on whose numbers look at 15 to 20% penetration so,
I think you know I think that's a little bit further out than people think it is I think they're the kind of reading too much into.
[31:12] Everything I say is not going to put truck driver like 50,000 truck driver short of what we need right now right away.
[31:18] Same time.
[31:21] I can't hire enough truck drivers in they're all like escalating pay and competing with each other and so the premises if the trucks can run at honesty in the freeway but then,
operator has to Take Over Control.
[31:32] Take Over Control.
[31:33] To drive it off the freeway to the the store or the DC you still need people.
A person can now manage more trucks they can essentially they have more delivery capacity for their labor and so the.
[31:48] The premise is.
[31:50] What's close the gap between supply and demand like probably doesn't like obsolete a bunch of jobs in the foreseeable future.
[31:59] But even then I go back to like my previous statement like my cell phone drops out a lot right jack making calls and,
I get really nervous of some guy in Phoenix driving a truck across five trucks across country in,
is is LTE drops out when he's on the ramp there I'm not sure where you can quite ready for a lot of these guys take a lot longer than people think.
[32:26] Absolutely well in there like they talked about like there's three fundamental technology platforms that need to happen that haven't happened yet.
They're all saying that like for their.
[32:37] Brittany practical for there to be a lot of autonomous.
[32:39] To be a lot of autonomous vehicles,
Gambia islands like the vehicles actually have to talk to each other and know where they are right and so not only do you need that good Wireless communication that you mentioned like you can't have the LTE but it's there's way more connections cuz I'll.
[32:53] Way more connections cuz all the vehicles are two paragraphs.
[32:55] And so the premise is that when 5G is Broad we deploy the next generation of Wireless technology.
Attributes that are more friendly to autonomous vehicles it's faster it has way more capacity for more devices and most importantly,
has way lower latency which is super important for like you can't you can't have the wireless going there's a dude in front of you and then have 130 millisecond lag before you hit the brakes.
[33:26] Where it where we see you're away from 5G being deployed at all much less like ubiquitously deployed and for your point,
maybe it'll work as well as promise maybe it won't there's a huge.
No One Believes that these things can be autonomous by just using cameras and sensors they all need this light our technology in the light our is kind of like a laser version of radar,
and there's a lots of controversy like the best working lidars are super expensive and have some negative side effects like,
potentially could blind people and they could ruin,
regular CCD cameras and so there's actually this big problem the vehicles need regular cameras and lidar and the lidar actually burns the the regular cameras,
signs of light are there way safer for devices and eyeballs but it has range limitations and things like that,
that's tough to be figured out so I totally agree like I think cars are going to have more,
amenities for easing driving in the near future but I like yeah I don't think we're just going to be like picking picking menus on Google Maps and and arriving there.
[34:39] Switching gears pun intended
there another thing you touched on was voice and I remember last year you kind of proclaimed it was the year that Amazon kind of stole CES arrest reports that
apple with their Siri platform in a Google with their assistant platform
I tried to kind of catch up to Alexa at CES this year although Apple didn't have a booth which I think was one of the first time so how would you score those three kind of
contenders and how they did.
[35:11] Why would I should go back two years I'd say 2 years ago.
[35:13] 2 years ago.
[35:15] Amazon had to show to themselves until they tell you what they didn't have a booth but they were,
embedded in their bunch of products that work with Alexa 2 years ago and last year the hand,
who's that work with Alexa turned into thousands of boost that had products that work with Alexa so again Amazon didn't really pay for a booth but they got huge buzz and footprint in their logo was everywhere on the show Google show,
last year but it was mostly with an advertising present so they had their own booth that they paid for the page.
There their logo on all the trans in Las Vegas and all the taxis until you're just looking around Las Vegas you go oh man I saw a bunch of Google.
[35:58] Google logo.
[35:59] And I saw a bunch of Amazon logos but I would argue Amazon dominated because,
all the Amazon logos were free and they were in products you could buy and the Google logos were mostly,
paid advertisements for for a handful of Google products that did not have huge penetration so now fast forward to this year and I feel like,
continue to make progress the Google is starting to catch up so the most common thing you would see now in a,
is in Words with Alexa and works with Google Assistant logos side by side it was on,
we agreed on the treatments and so there are lots of Brands where support for both products were in there to remind listeners which kind of two tiers of products there's products,
Alexa in it so it actually like is the assistant than you usually can talk to it,
and there's products that work with Alexa right like so a light bulb you know works with Alexa Smart Lock Works with Alexa a Bose or Sonos speaker,
probably has Alexa built into it the toilet odd we had Alexa built into it.
[37:19] They're both so you can you just kind of switch conversations and haven't OK Google / Alexa conversation.
[37:25] So they the ones that I saw mostly had an interface in you selected one of the other like I assume you could pretty seamlessly toggle back and forth but it wasn't like,
you could use either utterance and Trigger either assistant and way more common was devices that worked with both than that had both embedded in it like a lot of appliances like a refrigerator,
might have a smart assistant embedded in it that you actually bought one ski or the other you bought the Google Assistant version or you bought the Alexa version.
[37:58] And I've noticed you haven't said Siri in this conversation.
[38:02] So I sew a Amazon his net,
Apple has never had a booth at CES or at least in modern era has never had a booth at CES they many years they winzy yes because they launch the iPhone 11 years ago,
during CEO never one time and they sucked all the announcement out and Walt Mossberg was at CES and Steve Jobs called him and said hey we're having this event and I really think you ought to come mini cannons wall,
wces and go to the the first iPhone announcement,
and their many years when the most prominent product category at the show is stuff that worked with iPhones or that work with Apple products but Apple's never had a booth and again they did not did not,
for home pod this year so they still didn't have a booth I'm sure they had sweets where they were talking privately but there is very little.
Siri stuff embedded in products and to my knowledge I didn't see any products where it was like.
Google Amazon or Siri it felt like a two-way party the one place where Apple in are two places where Apple integration showed up heavily,
the the Sands has a hall dedicated to home automation and apple has a platform called home kits.
[39:26] So that every exhibitor.
[39:28] In the home automation section probably had a logo saying it was home Tech compatible and again Appleton have a booth in that section that homekit was definitely the most prevalent.
Call for home automation and then surprised that Apple pulled off at this show.
Who is famously sort of Walled Garden company.
A good experience you have to buy all our products if you want Apple TV you have to buy an Apple TV if you want Apple music you have to listen to it on the Apple product I'm so proud to show,
you saw those walls are eroding,
Apple actually launched a skill for Alexa that what you listen to your Apple music on your Amazon device which is unprecedented in shocking and then you got to CES this year and surprise.
[40:19] Apple in embedded.
[40:19] Embedded are play in most of the major TV manufacturers platforms so you now can get all the,
Apple TV content on a Samsung or LG TV without needing external hardware and the,
very likely is going to have a meaningful impact on Apple TV sales,
Roku is already destroying Apple TV in terms of market share in this will probably make it worse,
everyone's assumption is that Apple's about to make a major content Play Everybody expects Apple to have a pay-per-view video offering,
in the near future the complete compete with Netflix and the,
how has essentially as you can already buy individual content from Apple Apple is essentially made this decision that they can make more money,
as a Content publisher and they want to have his brought a market for their content as possible so they made this dream that,
from being a Walled Garden to being a open system that works with as many providers as possible.
[41:26] We've talked about it seems like things are thawing between Apple and Amazon these know so let's see,
Prime TV showed up on Apple TVs I think was the first thing and now we're seeing them kind of so the skill being Alexa there's an apple music skill on Alexa,
yes it would be interesting to see you could you have one of these Amazon Alexa TVs and get to some apple content to say say to Alexa hey ask Apple to play.
[41:57] Yeah absolutely seems like it's heading that direction the one that gets voted on and off the island a lot as there's a few Alexa devices with a screen like the Alexa show
and various X Alexis enabled YouTube to be on or off of those things in at the moment you can get YouTube on your Alexa show.
[42:15] So anything else from CS that you want to hit.
[42:20] So we touch on a couple of these in so I'm not going to Deep dive anyone but just us or the Highlight if you walked away from the show and said hey what.
[42:26] Walk away from the show and said hey what were the.
[42:28] Themes of this year show.
Underpinning in this whole show is there's this new thing coming that's not quite here yet called 5G and so falling that same kind of.
Nioh release actually released last,
a ton of 5G height with fake products this year there were fewer boost talking about 5G but they seemed very close and the the carriers have all announced that they have,
it's now and they're going to be doing appointments throughout the year and it don't have sort of meaningful penetration of 5G by the end of 2019 now that,
you can take multiple years to have the kind of 5G coverage that we enjoy the day with LTE which is the 4G network.
It really feels like we're at least a year away from meaningful consumer experiences and in fact there's like controversy.
[43:22] Factors like controversy this the earlier.
[43:24] IG this happens with every new iteration AT&T has rebranded some of their for G,
at work is 5G and they they got like a lot of funny social media Burns Teemo,
a funny video where they took a iPhone in AT&T iPhone and it showed the,
you have 5 bars of 4G LTE signal and they they wrote 5G on a Post-It note and like,
put it over the icon on the iPhone and said hang on a minute I'm doing a AT&T upgrade and it was sort of a joke that they just rebranded 4 G is 5 G,
so so that's coming everyone thinks that's going to be a huge game-changer when you can have a thousand times more devices connected,
and all those devices can have a hundred times faster bandwidth and they can have you know at 10 for a hundredth of the latency that we currently have its.
[44:24] You have to stop thinking about it's going to be a better cell phone and started thinking about,
no one's ever going to store files on the hard drive anymore by computers I'm going to need hard drives you're just like everything's going to be on the cloud and be able to come very quickly to your ubiquitous 5G signal and so,
the talk about other use cases that will change there's a ton of examples of leveraging improvements in visual search and video analytics and so there's a,
they talked about how I Google Maps spent a fortune,
turn cameras on cars and driving all over the country to get the images for Google Maps there's a company that sells the dash cams to all the taxi drivers.
[45:08] And they're like.
[45:10] We have GPS in the car we have all this dashcam video we can extract video from all the cab drivers in crowdsource better images than Google,
and so there's a lot of.
Qualcomm using video. To do crowdanalytix tons of Booth had this experience I hate where they they use video to try to infer the the mood of the,
the audience and hey we can show happy content to the audiences sad,
another number boost showing like we can tell old people and young people and sick people in healthy people and change the content there's a lot of controversy over that stuff.
[45:46] What is clear the technology.
[45:49] LG to quantify video and turn it into actionable analytics is like is incrementally improving and video visual searches is going to be a game-changer for a bunch of stuff,
so that was a big Trend a big Trend was,
a bunch of vendors shifting from their Walled Garden approaches to open system so Apple was the most dramatic but in the old days Samsung would try to make it use Bigsby and do everything with their smart home protocol,
felt like the manufacturer is kind of thrown in the towel on being walled Gardens and,
for several years there's been a connected home and a connected Health Hall at the Sands Hall but I tell people,
if you walk around the TV Hall the central Hall at CES it feel,
Legend Mall of America on Christmas Eve like it's super stressful it feels like you don't have enough room to breathe and walk and when you go to the Sands with this newer Technologies I connected home and connected health.
Felt relaxing because like there's more room it was West busy and this year felt like the year when those Halls flipped that like was much of.
[46:56] Her comfortable and less chaotic.
[46:56] Unless chaotic in the central Hall showing all the home video technology and it was wall-to-wall energy and Chaos in the connected home and connected health so very unscientific lie,
it feels like those categories are really starting to get some traction.
[47:13] And apples playing that in addition dumb could have helped get right so what did you see a lot of your healthkit kind of stuff.
[47:24] Homekit literally had a dedicated part of the hall so all the products that work with homekit when one place the connected Fitness area had a lot of,
products that support an apple healthkit a ton of apple competitors so I got to see the new,
new watch has an EEG in it and if you start having irregular heartbeat I'll be able to save you if I choose,
ton of ieg products and frankly some of them that make more sense like blood pressure cuffs that also do an EEG like so there was stuff that work for that ball there was stuff that competed with apple there were sensors for every,
Endeavor you could possibly imagine so if your baseball player we've got you know censored enabled baseballs they,
I can judge how well you hit it with the bad if your fisherman.
[48:16] We'll put a Fitbit.
[48:16] A Fitbit on your fishing pole to measure the quality of your casting whatever you want to do,
there's a way to quantify it and digitize it in a way you never could do them.
[48:31] Anything else from CS.
[48:35] It seemed like the big the big meaty stuff I know that's a lot of lot of content but it's it's the biggest trade show in the US it's a hundred and eighty thousand people.
[48:44] It feels like there's more more overlap between all the worlds which is interesting you know five years ago there would be no retail kind of stuff.
So speaking retail to switch gears and come on over to NRF so did you get here Saturday or Sunday.
[48:58] I came in Saturday.
[49:00] So you have been here much longer than I am I was only able to come up today which is Monday so.
[49:07] Wasted most of your day with me.
[49:08] I did unfortunately so tell us what you've been I saw a lot of selfies and things from the show floor so so what have you seen here it interrupts the New Berlin kind of really into the show but what have you seen that you want to share with listeners.
[49:24] Trans obviously Amazon go has a lot of traction and Buzz until one of the things you see here a lot are our alternatives to Amazon go so some of the.
[49:34] Those are what I would call a legitimate Amazon go tape.
[49:35] Legitimate Amazon go type experiences where they're sort of just walked out technology so there's a bunch of big exhibitors that have built little mini stores and can kind of demo that experience,
claiming they can do it with a fraction of the cameras and cost of Amazon go and it's really hard in these controlled environments to know whether there,
that's hyper or reality but a lot of vendors are claiming they can do Amazon go for a fraction of the cost and then there's a ton.
[50:03] Climbing on Amazon GoPro alternative when really there a scan and pay alternative.
[50:09] So which it is a useful and go.
[50:09] So which it is a useful and good experience in and of itself I'm not knocking Scan & Go I get slightly annoyed when people try to say.
The equivalent of grabbing your milk off the shelf and walking out the store without doing anything is grabbing your milk finding the barcode launching an app in your phone a mean a camera at the park,
it's a it's a it's a either there different use cases but.
[50:35] But they're a lot about I've seen tons of robots wandering around some of the same platform has been here for like 4 years now.
[50:44] So there's like a lot of the traditional automation like most of it,
dedicated Logistics so we've talked before about Amazon has these Kiva robots there's now a lot of alternatives to Kiva the other,
fulfillment centers can use to automate them would say there's more of those this year and what they're now is is a bunch of robots that people are hoping you'll use in the store,
so there are robots for wayfinding you come into the front of the store,
you say my wife told me to get this specific item in the robots is follow me and walks to the store and gets it and there's multiple competitors they've been here the last couple years,
pictures of all the shelves and they do planogram compliance the Campbell Soup is where it's supposed to be we're out of this SKU we got to get more they're all doing some some,
liability compliance as well now they're taking pictures the floor to make sure there is not a trip and fall Hazard or things like that there's robots that will.
[51:44] Robots that will.
[51:46] Replace the instacart people in the store it seems pretty far-fetched to me.
[51:50] All around with the customers and grabs products out the Shelf to fill a shopping cart.
[51:56] Robotic shopping carts.
[51:57] Birds that follow you around so you don't have to push your own shopping card and use but items in the the autonomous vehicle that's chasing you around the store,
a lot of robots.
Mostly feel like super expensive kind of Ivy bells and whistles right now like some of the the warehouse automation is like,
super effective in high Roi for for high-volume warehouses but a lot of the stuff I think is,
interesting but not something we should expect to see in high-volume in stores in the near future.
[52:31] That reminded me I kept seeing this video at CS of the Sluggers that would follow you around and then the video it literally runs into 4 people.
[52:44] They tell you you can't bring on the plane.
If your luggage has a battery in it you have to take the battery out of your luggage so if you're,
luggage is also a Killer attack robot it seems like there's going to be some interesting, conversations with the FAA.
[53:01] But yeah.
[53:01] But yeah there's a lot of robot to CES like in terms of density robot,
he's probably even more robots at interrupt this year so the robot guys are here in full strength there's a.
[53:16] Money is gravitating around.
[53:17] Is gravitating around the problem of apparel returns so a big reason people return a pair.
[53:22] Apparel is.
[53:24] Is because it doesn't fit,
and tell you that they bought two sizes and returned one or they bought it expecting it to fit and they didn't so there's a bunch of companies that are using your smartphone to try to take measurements.
Help you pick the right size the first time there's a bunch of companies that are having you upload your image in your measurements so that you can be busy.
[53:47] You can visualize the clothes.
[53:48] You can visualize the clothes on your exact body type,
stuff like that that is a big Trend this year a lot of hardware and software around optimizing Logistics and reverse Logistics so vendors thinking about how to optimize returns,
a ton of digital in-store in digital shelf stuff,
so I every year say oh this is going to be the year of digital fact tags and so far I've mostly been wrong I'm doubling down yet again I think there's more reasons that digital fact tags will take off this year and little boys at Amazon,
is using them now and it's like I could open a bunch more stores where them in Sam's Club is using them in Walmart is piloting I'm in Best Buy's piloting on the streets trying to see some real traction from,
retailers that other retailers are likely to follow and the technology is getting better.
[54:43] But there's a lot of other.
[54:44] Digital shelf technology Kroger has developed a digital shelf that can run Co-op ads on the Shelf Edge until you think about what a big advertising platform Amazon is becoming,
has a lot of.
But in the store so they're trying to monetize that traffic by creating opportunities to run ads next to the real-time products so those kinds of digital shells or super interesting,
the same train we saw a video analytics at CES we definitely see here that all the traffic meter guys but there's a lot of other use cases now for,
analyzing video streams to do various things in the store and not so much on the show floor but in a lot of the content I was able to capture one of the big themes that's emerging this year that I really agree with is that one of.
Challenges we have in Commerce is an erosion of trust between the retailer and the consumer or the brand in the consumer,
I feel like,
yeah with all the negative Facebook press and you know the the never ending stream of breeches like there's a lot of reason to really be worried about,
the level of trust you've earned with your consumers and a lot of reason to believe that that's that's a limiting to your Market opportunity so I'm not sure anyone had the Magic Bullet for,
learning that trust back or retaining that trust.
[56:09] I like the fact of.
[56:10] People are starting to have a conversation about explicitly trying to solve the the trust game.
[56:17] Call any us some good thematic stuff anything specific to specific retailers on the content side.
So I think you were at the big Gala and it seems like a lot of the winners of that Gala event or digital native Oracle Branson Center.
[56:34] Has this sort of their Hall of Fame that they called the list and every year about 20 people get inducted on to this list,
and they're like influencers and power Brokers and innovators and disruptors that these different categories and you know most of those almost all of those awards are targeted at retailers and so on the past you have,
you know the CEO of Nike winter the CEO,
Macy's are you know all these these these sort of traditional retailers in this year the overwhelming majority of retailers that won an award where,
small are digital native Brands the two batters of Warby Parker where the power Brokers and the women from a way you know was a disruptor inside,
it felt like a huge transition from the the traditional Legacy retailers to the the digitally native Brands which is coming.
And then a bunch of the retards give key notes to be honest like it's mostly not that interesting to attend the key notes from the CEO of all these retailers because.
The job not to share secrets and you don't get elevated to that level of seniority unless you're really good,
that kind of Public Communication and so.
[57:55] Kind of Public Communication and so.
[57:58] Mostly commercials you know focused on Public Information and it doesn't feel like there's a lot of like secret new inside or advice or learnings that get shared by the CEOs of these kind of events,
I might be cynical.
[58:12] Yes of the one-piece Contin I saw was a professor Galway or Galloway,
yeah I wanted like jump off a cliff. After that it was like super depressing.
[58:21] I feel like he made you sit with.
[58:22] Grab the Grim Reaper so everything is terrible and we're all going to die so thanks for that.
[58:28] It's up here is not a retail apocalypse guy I think he felt like our government and our society was going to collapse.
[58:33] But other than that retails going to be great.
[58:38] Better-than-expected year.
[58:40] Wow wow the whole society Falls.
[58:44] Exactly what we'll try to find you some some Beverages and help you help you start feeling better about your future and that is a.
A place to use it cuz we have used up our a lot of time as a reminder of anything came up on the show you want to discuss further or you have any questions for us we encourage you to go to Facebook and will continue the conversation there as always the biggest,
appreciation you can give to us is to jump on the iTunes and give us that five star review I know there's still a few listeners that listen to the show every week that haven't made the truck over to iTunes and now would be a terrific time to do it.
[59:24] Yeah thanks for joining us everyone and we will be back with the some more news from an RF later this week.
[59:30] And until next time happy commercing.
EP159 - 2019 Predictions and 2018 Recap
Our annual predictions episode for 2019 and a recap of our 2018 predictions.
2018 Recap - Predictions made on episode 112
Bonus - Amazon comes out with Alexa powered wireless earbuds - because I want them. NO
Bonus - Amazon launches a wearable. NO .
Scot crushes Jason!
Bonus: Amazon breaks out Prime revenue.
Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.
Episode 159 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday, January 6th, 2019.
[0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 159 being recorded on Sunday January 6th 2019 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo.
[0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back and happy New Year Jason Scott show listeners Jason am I mistaken or is that some new music we have there at the beginning.
[0:48] Yeah yeah due to overwhelming listener feedback that I finally updated the
the intro to the show it is the same song and the the same announcer but
you know you and I both both had some career accomplishments in that in the last year until now there are titles are updated and it's you know just kind of refreshed for the year.
[1:13] Yeah and you how is the new gig going for anyone that missed for smashing on you if you missed any of our last couple episodes but Jason has a new gig will see if I can remember this Chief Grand Superior
digital retail Commerce officer is that the right now.
[1:31] The for the second time in a row you nailed it exactly right.
[1:35] Awesome my dad sometimes I drop a word in there but I think I got them all.
[1:38] Yep and impacted cuz you mark that title so much in the last episode I had a ton of a client with legitimately fancy titles all making fun of me for the for the entire break so thanks very much for that Scott.
[1:52] Awesome it's maybe that will be everyone's New Year's resolution is to give Jason a hard time about his awesome new title.
[1:58] For for sure.
[2:00] Coldwell we're post holidays here I think everyone's probably on the edge of their seat did you get any cool new gadgets.
[2:12] Ya always tough.
Like in general there's an extremely narrow gap between my desires and fulfillment in so.
Like if I got some new gadgets for Christmas it's most likely because a new Gadget came out right before Christmas so I will say I did some refresh is I finally got the.
The iPad Pro the 10.5% sync you also have I haven't unbent version I've been pretty.
Pretty happy with that and because because of the new job I had to trade out laptops and so now I have finally have a in all USB C.
Ecosystem with the iPad and the the the laptop so I've getting those new gadgets of course cost me thousands of dollars in new adapters and cables in.
And all angles but I guess the one minor little toy I got is a new.
A video camera well I got a couple new vision cameras so I got the DJI osmo pocket.
[3:25] This is a tiny as in fits like in the palm of your hand you could you could hide it in your hand video camera with a a fully-functioning gimbal so it's,
pretty cool to have some some.
Funny pictures I'm looking forward to taking nap to the several upcoming trade shows that will probably talk about in a minute so that has been cool and I did a little earlier than Christmas get the new Nikon.
Mirrorless camera system so a Nikon Zed 6 if you're from your upper or a Z6 if you're in the US.
[4:01] Cool house that is the mirror listen can you tell the difference.
[4:05] Yet yet so Nikon has always had a great reputation for digital still cameras and great
image quality in low-light capability in the color rendering they've been extraordinary really horrible at video.
And I'm assuming I actually need a camera that's.
Okay it Stills and also very good at video so the fact that I've always own Nikon cameras and have Nikon lenses have been.
A constant pain point for me because my car's been so far behind on video and so there's some the mirrorless cameras in general are much better at video and this this.
Nikon's first mirrorless full-frame camera.
Really does a pretty good weed frog for video capabilities in a lot of ways so it's it's definitely the best.
Video stills camera I've ever owned.
[5:01] Koba I know you're off to CES next week and we will have a lot more gadget news for us then you and I are both at the NRF Big Show so maybe we'll shoot some video do a live streaming or something fun like that.
[5:12] I will bring all those gadgets why be using them to photograph any cool new gadgets that you got for the holiday stuff.
[5:19] I I said William like you where I think I probably had caught up on my gadgets before the holiday suit so nothing new for me.
Oh yeah yeah I do think did you get the keyboard case on your iPad I really enjoyed that.
[5:35] Yeah I did I've enjoyed that it's been it's my first iPad with a pencil so that has been it's been cool yeah.
Not permanently I I will concede to have misplaced it but it it does reemerged.
[5:51] That an airpods have this weird like they want to get lots of gaple somehow his program them to is a margin enhancer to get lost as quickly as they possibly can.
[6:02] I'm afraid to even talk about that because my my wife is so much more responsible than me and she's on like her her like 4th or 5th pair and I am still in my originals through some some like and Candy miracle.
[6:15] Goodwill as is our tradition here on the Jason Scott show every year we kick off the new year with a recap of what happened in the last year
and then we have our predictions so the predictions are twofold last year about 365 days ago we made a bunch of predictions
couldn't remember so it's kind of fun to go back and look at those are super geeky and want to go back that was episode 112.
It's a method that means we did 47 shows last year so that's 47 hours roughly of Jason Scott if you if you have a week to burn if you have mono or something like that that you want to recover from and you need something to put you to sleep for 47 hours a week we have your cure
so we will be breaking the show into three pieces for going to do kind of a good bad ugly of 2018
and then we can go into recapping our predictions and squirm and then from 2018 and then we're going to put out some 2019 predictions so I think what you'll see from the 28th
predictions is we're actually pretty good pretty good at this thing after how long you been at this 3 for years now I think we're getting pretty good on the prediction game.
[7:34] That's easier for you to say than it is for me to say this year but sure.
[7:39] Without further delay let's jump into The Good the Bad and the Ugly Jason what order a couple of your goods from 2018.
[7:46] Yep so I was really excited to see some of the new physical store Concepts and the very end of the year you know Nike open at House of innovation we talked about that in the last show
that's super exciting to me I think some of the Amazon Concepts like go and 4-star are are super interesting there's a lot of new
physical Marketplace Concepts like we've had beta on the show I've mentioned show failed before and then a lot of these mobile-first stores like the Sam's Club now so I think,
the you know we're really starting to see digital Impact Physical stores and drive new store Concepts which is awesome.
[8:24] On the platform front I was excited to see Adobe make the big investment in Magento in an e-commerce platform.
In many ways I feel like the the commercial platform space in the Enterprise platform space in particular that I play in is kind of.
In the worst spot it's been in in 10 years in terms of.
You don't really meeting the needs of retailers and clients and there's always been this this conflict between CMS systems that people like Adobe make and commerce platforms that people like.
IBM sap in Oracle make in so I'm very optimistic that adobe who who is dominating the CMAs.
Essbase then making a significant investment investment in e-commerce you know really could be the way forward for 4.
A lot of new new retailers in in Commerce entities that need an enterprise-class system.
And I say this with the one caveat Magento as it is is not the solution.
[9:33] Adobe's willingness to invest in Magento 2 me is historically a Dobby is always been a.
And aggressive acquire that acquired a bunch of stuff and you know it often takes them several years to really integrate the stuff so I'm not expecting Miracles this year per se but in the long run feels like.
Adobe deciding that Commerce is an important part of the stack is super exciting and then my my last good for the year.
Is kind of specific it was Walmart's investment in Flipkart in the reason I think that is good I think it is super smart for.
From Walmart to be aggressively fighting for digital in in the super important Emerging Market in India.
Some things happened late last year that make those Investments actually look a little softer is as a Indian regulation on foreign Commerce is has gotten more challenging but the reason I just think it's good overall is.
I feel like that investment that huge investment in digital for Walmart you know his is the most.
[10:38] Tangible physical manifestation of Walmart's absolute recognition that.
Digital is the way forward in the day you know that they have to compete with the Amazon than alibaba's of the world and can't can't abdicate any of that Digital Ground And so seeing them them fight for for that that
intellectual property you know I think is a encouraging sign for all of us in the future what about you what would it were you excited about last year Scott.
[11:07] Well I'm always the guy that gets to say it wouldn't be the Jason Scott show without Amazon and Sonos surprised they're my good is crying it out with Amazon so
I thought was really interesting than Amazon you mentioned a little bit but they really expanded their store footprint so they had acquired Whole Foods back and 17 which obviously is a big splash into offline
and they never really expanded Whole Food stores I mean
2018 was a year of kind of adjusting that that acquisition they announce now they're going to start opening more here in 2019 so that's going to be interesting to see
I think the surprise for me in an impossible one was done to go experiments and
then just kind of really ramping that up pretty quickly you know I think they built another for 5 is that many more on the way there's rumors of wars and then
you're the one thing as I travel around not nearly as much as you but going to various malls and things
I would say pretty much every a mall in the US seems to have an Amazon pop-up store and
I think about all those people I don't know how many that is it's how many of these are out there but I think if we looked at.
[12:23] Your class A malls I think there be three or four hundred of them so I wouldn't be surprised if there was three or four hundred pretty substantial Amazon pop-ups out there so it's I think that's pretty interesting and really is a testament to the Amazon.
[12:38] You're expanding into kind of omni-channel world and get their products in front of more people.
[12:43] I'm done once asked on the front end of Amazon the back end of Amazon that was really interesting this year was what I would call it start a frenetic expansion of.
Delivery capabilities some of this is last mile so they acquire twenty thousand of these Mercedes Sprinter vans I'd be surprised if any listener at least the United States hasn't seen one of these I see you to a date at this point in my area.
[13:09] And they built a 1099 Network a very clever way kind of taking a page out of FedEx Grounds Playbook where they were actually kind of
put you in the business guarantee you rub you and routes and then boom you're off and running so I think they got those 20,000 sprinters out there delivering packages and something like
six months which is just pretty crazy about a lot of soccer capabilities so if you're a third-party now you can use Amazon soccer in your phone at Center
and almost be like little extension of FBA
Whole Foods we saw them can I ditch instacart and then layer and their their 1099 other 1099 network of Flex for that they've added a ton more jets that got to where are hubs coming and I attractive
distribution centers pretty closely
so in the USA in 2018 they added 46 more performance center assets and then another 23 in the rest of the world for a total of about 70
I am all in that's an additional 11 million square feet of space that came on line in 2018 and then that adds to the existing 850 or so globally and 250 million square feet so,
so it's a lot of people that I always
talk to you that the baby not in the industry but on the cusp there always surprise I'll say what how many how many from home as soon as you think Amazon has versus Walmart but they both have 10 and the number I think that's about right with Walmart but Amazon has.
[14:34] Tremendous amount of assets they built so it matters it's Amazon a so far ahead of anyone it is going to be interesting to see there.
My last surprise was becoming I think the economy did really well last year even the last
reported as of December on the job side was really really strong so that we're seeing a strong economy you know as the Fed
kind of Titans interest rates in the stock market with a lot of shakiness there but underlying economy.
[15:09] Then let's put it in the battle I'll start those so I think the bad was I was so surprised about how kind of negative to Amazon hq2 process turned out,
kind of ended in a in a thud you know it wasn't like this kind of I guess unless you're one of the two cities I think they're.
Pretty excited but even then there's a lot of protesting going on in the DC New York area that Amazon's coming and then it got these really big incentives so
yeah I think that's going to be interesting to watch and see what happens as Amazon is so large now that they can't just fly under the radar and I think they managed the back of that process kind of weirdly
not where it seems like everyone that are decided and then and then it's kind of pain a conspiracy theory if you believe that they were just Gathering data from people
what I'm concerned about a little bit you and I emailed about this just recently I kind of put it in the bad category in this is holiday 2018.
I'm so Adobe came out a couple days ago what their final report they said the holiday came in at 14%.
That's e-commerce so Little Debbie disappointing if that's true then you send me some data that showed MasterCard said all in 5.1
I guess you know this better than I do dinner or else was right around there and set right would that be kind of a win or a loss of your.
[16:30] Yet so for all of retail that's that that's probably a win it's a little better than the recent historical averages but I think the.
That does averages hide the fact that you know it just was not equal 4 for all retailers and inside I definitely think there are winners and losers.
[16:54] Yeah unfortunately don't think we'll know until Amazon reports there they're kind of the Bellwether I look at and you know,
Indus. Where they would have pre-announced if they had missed so they haven't said anything unfortunately Apple did pronounce look like they had a really rough calendar Q4 I believe it's there there
theraphysical q1i which is always confusing what companies do it that way
but that seems to be isolated to China with some of the tariffs and things in the Chinese economy that that I don't think we'll
Amazon has as much exposure to just really interesting to see where holiday 18 and zup and I think we'll know what covered on the show as we always do I think we'll know
by that first week in February however all the all the leaves fell and and what happened.
[17:41] Yeah I'm looking forward to seeing how that all plays out so some of my bads.
Didn't get a ton of Buzz last year but I've been pretty disappointed in the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling regarding a internet sales tax and so you know,
basically the Supreme Court rule made a ruling in favor of a state that was suing to collect sales tax on.
An internet sales in Oxy like I'm okay with.
People having to pay sales tax for other online purchases I'm I actually think in general rather be Universal pricing and in.
You know you buy from the same retail online or in the store you want to see the same price and and that's a lot to be taxed in a similar way the reason I say that the ruling was bad is.
Because a bunch of the ramifications of the way this particular ruling plays out it just creates a lot of uncertainty in friction in the e-commerce space and so.
Which states you actually need to collect sales tax in which they tax you definitely don't need to collect sales tax in and which states.
You may or may not get sued by a state if you don't collect sales tax in right now is kind of.
[19:02] Thrown up in the air and it creates a lot of inconsistency and just a lot of.
A sort of effort and friction that isn't helping anyone and so I feel like there was opportunity for for Congress to solve this problem before dumping in the lap of the Supreme Court's and.
You know maybe that was overly optimistic so didn't happen until we're going to have to let this play out for now a number of years and.
Just like the unfortunate the other sort of bad one to me this year is we had some kind of ugly CEO exit so you know what we forgot about that this far end up but we had.
You know the very ugly exit at Lululemon.
[19:44] Early in the year I want to see February he was he was the CEO and chairman and got kind of forced out and he's now been.
In an irritant for them on an ongoing basis you know Mickey Drexler was.
Lasted less than a year of J.Crew and you know maybe not CEO of all but you know I see you judge executive term for some bad reasons it Nike.
And so you know that certainly to me as one of the the the bad blemishes on on 2018 from a Commerce perspective.
[20:19] And then my my ugly if we give it to the the really bad stuff for 2018 I just think it what I mean you're always going to have churning in retail stores are always going to have,
bankruptcies Doug mcmillon famous what he carries around this west of the top 10.
[20:36] Can retailers from my 1980 and there aren't a lot of those names that are that are still in business today so bankruptcies are in a shock but I feel like.
2018 hits is particularly hard with Toys R Us and Sears and then you know below them you had all these other guys David's Bridal Mattress Firm Brookstone Nine West Claire's Gymboree bonds.
Etc and so you know as a lover of Commerce and Retail and sorry to see some of those stories brands.
[21:07] You don't go away or get greatly diminished so that's only felt ugly and then right towards the end of the year,
we had a IBM sell their big Enterprise e-commerce platform Webster Commerce to US service provider HCL,
that to me is a probably super ugly for IBM clients that are relying on that platform and.
You know now it's fragmented from the rest of the IBM stacked and there's going to be a bunch of challenges there there's a bunch of clients that own the or just moving to the.
The cloud version of Webster Commerce which they didn't sell so that seems ugly I just feel like the the Enterprise Commerce platform space.
In general is in a bad space and it's most manifested by by IBM which was you know one of the top three platforms are arguably the top platform getting kind of dumped by IBM this year.
[22:08] Call yeah I'm going to plus one or as my kids would say retweet on the bankruptcies that tear you when was painfully know is that it is a kid that grew up
Star Wars fan I spent many a midnight madness so you know.
Jedi Friday or whatever the column hanging out in t r u so that was disappointing then you.
Add insult to injury one of the shopping center if we go to a lot had a combined Tru Babies R Us like a huge one it just sitting there empty for the last last three or four months is kind of sad.
Yeah I kind of say you know in this top of the mall Denton,
so interesting stat here that came out towards the end of the year.
I mentioned it, he did pretty well but malls were there emptiest in six years from a tenancy standpoint no foot traffic is also down at malls this company RI sorry is I had a report that said that they're at an 8.6% vacancy.
[23:05] Again that's the highest it's been in 6 years and that represents 4 million square foot is the most available square footage in malls and then strip malls have been hit
chick really bad because you know I think Toys R Us is really kind of one of those strip-mall type stores that
it was an anchor for a lot of strip malls and and as we see in the enclosed malls when she loosened his anchors you get up into this death spiral kind of situation so
I would also Echo that on the ugly side
cool so so that was kind of the what was sawed in 2018 let's put it to our predictions in and see if how Clairvoyant we were on condos so I went back to Good Ol episode 112 and service predictions I'll go to mine and then you go to yours and then what kind of see how he did
sue her quickly I had five predictions and a bonus so number one Mulligan 2.0
in 2017 we saw 7,000 stores closed and I said it's going to accelerate into 2018.
[24:05] I ended up with 9,000 closures then my second prediction was that Amazon will not buy another retailer
this doesn't seem like people may think well why would you say that it's kind of obvious but back then we were on the heels of the Whole Foods acquisition in a lot of Wall Street analyst for like issuing those reports you know Costco's Definitely Maybe the next company know it's Nordstrom's know its Target so that's that was kind of the backdrop.
Predictions is really say these guys are off base I just don't think Amazon's could do anything big again in 2018,
in the corollary to that was that they would instead of doing that they would triple down on private label.
[24:44] Third prediction I ripped my prediction on Amazon Logistics they would be competing more squarely with FedEx ups and then number for this one turned out,
pretty good I said Walmart will make
big m&a instacart Postmates and eBay so, playing on Marketplace and last-mile their number 5 and said somebody would acquire magenta or they would go.
And then my bonus was the Amazon would come out with Alexa powered,
your butt's so I mentioned airpods the topless show I love my airpods but I am not a huge Siri fan and I everyday I wish Alexa what would hang out on my airpods instead of Siri so that was the Genesis of that production Warrior 2018 predictions.
[25:30] Yep so I also had five in the bonus the first one was the grocery would get heavily disrupted by digital I think I called out specifically that would be wed by curbside pickup.
Number two was the drug would get the heavily disrupted by digital,
number three I said the biggest train would be talking about in 2018 was what I called that AI gap which was kind of,
the difference between the big players that could take full advantage of AI in the smaller players that couldn't necessarily afford to do it as quickly,
predictions for was voice I said it's going to continue to be huge and grow quickly but not for Commerce.
And then my V prediction was mobile payments was digital wallets I said a bunch of them with. I said Starbucks Walmart and Amazon when continue to thrive but a bunch of the other ones women's and,
snarky side note I mentioned that I expected Bitcoin to tank and then my bonus was.
Close to the same as yours I I said that I thought the Amazon would come out with a wearable in 28.
[26:42] What did you what you mean by Rebel.
[26:45] Army night.
Your paws were the most likely scenario but I just felt like they would find some way to get Alexa on on your body and especially because they lack the phone that seems like.
You don't like it could be some kind of widget that you you clip to your clothing or or carry with you but but or I wear something like that but I guess my biggest expectation was that it would be your pot.
And we will talk about the results of that moment early but I want to start off by breaking down how well you did
so now that we reminded everyone what we thought 2018 would look like in the beginning of 2018 let's see how we actually did so your first prediction was the store Mulligan what do you think.
[27:38] Yeah I'm going to because I put a specific number in there of 9,000 I I I missed that one turns out it took me a while to find the state looks like there was 6235 closures
in hindsight what I should have done and there's no good data set for this is looked at the square footage of so you know when
I don't know when a mattress firm closes that's different than a Sears or JCPenney are Toys R Us closing right
is this really the square footage we care about so I would argue I would throw myself at the feet of the judges and say look at miss the number of stores but I think if you look at kind of what did clothes and yours juices
rundown of store closures in 2018 Toys R Us 735,
Walgreens 600 n Taylor Loft Dress Barn 500 Teavana 379 Best Buy 250 Mattress Firm 200 Gap
200 Children's Place 144 Footlocker 110 Kmart 109 Gymboree 102 and then let's goes It goes from there another kind of big square footage when Sam's Club 63 how big is a Sam's Club like two hundred thousand.
[28:49] 100 weeks but yeah.
[28:50] Honored yet so there's enough so it's all right I think if we looked as square footage I bet and I don't have a source for this unfortunately I have heard that the there was way more square footage in 2018 so.
Who does if you want to hold it till I rely on the stop.
[29:08] Yeah I'm actually giving you that one because I would,
went out do I call the sources we do have the track store closures none of them claim or try to be comprehensive so they're they're tracking stores in a particular category or that made a particular criteria and saying they close that many but none of them for example are trying to keep track of.
Potentially how many mom-and-pop closed or those sorts of things and even there are a couple of sources of square footage in your right the square footage is more dramatic because we had closure is it a lot of big stores but even the square footage tend to be like.
People that are attacking mob a square footage in what the closures are so I just I don't think there is a definitive number but I think the spirit of your prediction came to pass and I think was the.
The biggest shrinkage of a store for stores in in recent memory.
[29:59] Colton so we'll call that one in the sky cam.
[30:05] For sure so your second prediction Amazon will not buy another offline retailer and you said they'd triple down on private label so pretty with B,
and I prediction but but I actually.
I liked it so how do you think you did.
so obviously I didn't make another big acquisition of an offline retailer in it you know the trouble down on private label I think
maybe they even quadruple down that it's hard to get data on the cell to does a good job and then we had some other data folks 10:10 to concentrate on the show and you know I think if you could attract our conversations on the show or the squeeze 7 episodes
the second half of 18 we were spending a lot of time talking about Amazon 3rd party because it's probably the number one thing on retailers and Brands mines
you know so so so I would call this definitely something that happened there.
[31:12] That for sure, annoyingly totally giving it to you so 242 so far your third prediction which I touch you like is your annual protection,
is the Amazon Logistics.
[31:30] Yeah and this one's kind of squishy so I'm going to kind of say this was a zero so my mind we won't cross this one until
I can ship a product on Amazon like I would FedEx from point A to point B.
So I think it's become insanely cleared everyone that this is what they're building now so I think everyone is kind of,
in fact if you if you go look at a FedEx stock chart and you'll see they had a number of issues with the terrorist it help them it would not,
listen to their conference call their CEO and founder Fred Smith,
you got a little agitated by a kind of the fifth or sixth Amazon question that he got so I think it's
become pretty apparent everyone would Amazon's doing here and the the ball is no longer hidden the cards are on the table
and who knows maybe 2019 will be that year when we can ship a product Coast to Coast for $3 on Amazon.
[32:31] Yeah for sure so I'm sort of with you I feel like they made a lot of progress in that direction
seems like you need to be something that will happen but but you don't get full credit for this year so if only because I need to keep the predictions competitive,
so your fourth prediction was the Amazon the ad group we get so large that they would have to break out there the revenue separately and that people would be totally shocked how how big they got
[33:04] Yeah and so did this is a win they didn't have to break it out like they do AWS work so I could separate kind of reporting piano but they have had to break it out because it has been so large they created this
they when they announced the quarter last year they said going forward they would change the way they recorded stuff.
Unfortunately they stopped recording a lot of my favorite stuff which was kind of sad so they used to have this
interesting breakdown between him and some things that have gone away now but when they did that they did start to break out
category called other and everyone knows that that's like 99% and so and it has gotten quite large so you'll hear me talk a little bit more about that in 2019 president.
[33:50] Yeah and you don't even though you're bad at reading predictions and you put that highly specific thing in there that didn't happen I'm totally giving this one to you like for people that haven't lived through the industry in last year
people are not talking about Amazon's ad Revenue in January of last year in
you don't even like the Scott Galloway's of the world that like make a living.
Making predictions and then you know reminding everyone when they're right he wrote a book that you don't Amazon with 1/4 of the book and he barely mentioned advertising in that book in like,
July and so for you back in January to have said hey there ads is going to be this big thing and it was going to be shocked when they find out how big it was and then you know
last June and then again in October when they you know,
showed how fast that was growing and everyone's exactly talking about that I feel like you you basically put the words right in there was a mouth so I'm totally giving you credit for that but you still ain't get one point for it so
so you're three or four running into to your V prediction which was that.
Annoying Walmart will make a big MMA and you mentioned some some last-mile candidates.
[35:09] How you did Scott.
[35:10] I'll give you sixteen Billy syneresis flag,
Walmart acquired what card it was not one of the ones that predicted but.
You know I probably should have so it was my my set up on this one going back then was,
it's not like Walmart had all this pressure you know that they had to get in the game with with Amazon more and I was thinking Last Mile but it totally makes sense on their National side as well so that was,
clearly a good call to kind of read the tea leaves on that one.
[35:48] Yeah that was totally good and then annoyingly even though they were only supposed to be 5 predictions you did 1/6 prediction and you know
to be annoyingly for me cuz I I'm I have this one-sided rivalry when I'm trying to compete with you I believe your 6 prediction was that a Dobby would acquire Magento for 1.6 billion dollars.
[36:07] It wasn't that accept fake but it was that someone would acquire Majin to or they would go public so so there you know
so having been on the other side of this
when when you get to a certain scale as a startup in the magenta got through some complicated things but they're effectively a start up again right there an independent entity they had a private equity
the clock starts ticking was what I was thinking
and what that clock means is that investor wants their money back and he's private Equity guys BC's want a 10-year Horizon private equities like two or three that was kind of feeding into that prediction and then you know it's also on the other side it's.
Musical chairs you know so so everyone every big cloud he's going to want to have a great platform and it just felt like there was.
One chair left in and kind of two Cloud companies that wanted to sit in that chair so so that's what it said in the so happy that I read those tea leaves right as well.
[37:07] What congratulations so recap five out of six right and then you did do the bonus one
and that was the Amazon would have an airpod like headphones they and what it what do you want to say about that stuff.
[37:23] So my strategy here is it's easy to call this when the wind because you had the same one so your Prime.
So Amazon specifically didn't get released this but this is actually my son was looking for some new headphones so we went to,
I would assume next to the derelict Toys'R'Us I mentioned earlier and I was surprised I'm a big I'm listening I'm on the show right now with some qc35 from Bose
and I looked and it said now featuring Alexa and I was like what the heck,
this is awesome now Alexa is in the Bose headphones then I went over to the job or display and it said now featuring Alexa then I went over to like two other kind of you know
generic style things and literally as I backed up and looked at the row of headphones every single pair suddenly I had Alexa so what's happened is Amazon has issued an API or some kind of capability in
a very strategically work with a lot of these manufacturers and unbeknownst to me until now literally like January 2nd when we were born in some.
[38:29] Best Buy gift cards they are there are a lot of airpod like Technologies and and you have every configuration headphone you can imagine with Alexa now
and I play with it it's actually exactly how I want it to be so
on my Gadget which list is I am hoping that somehow these Bose headphones I have break and that I can.
Get a new pair with Alexa or maybe I need to go check and see if I can retro them to have Alexa probably not try some kind of I'm sure there's some.
Gizmo this to make me buy a new car.
[39:02] Yea though I can certainly help you with the accidental breakage problem when I see you in in New York in a couple weeks
but yeah yeah same boat I I'm not giving it either this credit for this cuz the Amazon didn't didn't actually,
come out with an Amazon branded product but what did happen I can't remember the exact date like August or September they did finally release exactly as you suggested an API that made it totally possible for
OEM to build Alexa into the headphones and you can imagine folks are doing it right then
but then even a bigger deal one of the big chip manufacturers in November started shipping a new Bluetooth chipset
the included that capability and access to that API in the chips at so
you're already seeing a bunch of announcements that's before.
Brands had the opportunity to build new products with this new Bluetooth chipset my expectation is I'm going to show up in Las Vegas tomorrow
and there are going to be Bluetooth products with an Alexa embedded in them coming out of my ears with early.
So I think we yeah we may have missed The Branding on that one but the floodgates are about to open up and
not one of my predictions but sidenote like I think everyone's noticed that.
[40:24] Airpods have been Apple's most successful product in The Last 5 Years and you know the.
The Amazon Alexa family's been the most successful Consumer Electronic it in The Last 5 Years,
I'll be shocked if we don't see apple Google and Amazon directly battling it out with smart smart earbuds this year.
[40:44] Cool one of the one of the many Jason Scott show interns just handed me a note it looks like I can upgrade my headphones with firmware so we're going to stop a show right now.
[40:58] We're not going to stop at but you may not hear Scott anymore cuz he's going to like drop by the audio.
[41:03] I'm going to be upgrading my firmware while Jason finishes the wrestler show speaking of Jason let's go through your predictions so what was my score so was it 5 out of 7.
[41:13] I forgot I forgot what it was I'm giving you five out of six we're not counting the bone.
[41:18] Okay but I think that helps you but I'm okay with.
[41:21] Well but we're also the setting it was the same bonus oh.
[41:24] Okay so your first one was grocery gets disrupted by digital led by curbside pickup listeners will longtime listeners will know that is your favorite.
Grocery solution digital grocery doubles in the US at least one delivery firm Peters out.
[41:41] Yep so,
I'm calling out a window side note I have come to realize that I hate my predictions from last year and because I just,
put them badly like they're too subjective and in many cases like hard to measure so at one of my New Year's resolution is to write better
predictions and we'll find out how very shortly.
[42:05] It's easy to say you hate them in January of 2019.
[42:08] Yeah for sure for sure but but I do think the sentiment of this when like was wildly true
Walmart ruled after I pick up to 2,000 stores that over 40% e-commerce growth every quarter this year which is wildly faster than last year is faster than Amazon Kroger get a bunch of their own curbside pickup called quick list but a bigger deal they did an exclusive partnership with Arcado the
biggest digital Grocer in UK Albertsons made a bunch of big Investments they both
announced that they were going to watch the first digital grocery Marketplace and they also announced that they were going to build dedicated micro fulfillment centers out of the backs of a bunch of the Albertsons stores
our friends at shoptalk launched a dedicated digital grocery show called grocery talk and it's sold out with 3,000 attendees in the first year you know you go internationally and the
the Ali Baba concept hammer and the JD concept 7 fresh are going nuts I think it's it's a safe and fair to say
digital grocery blew up even even though.
You know I mean I have perfectly nailed the specifics and again there's no perfect metric but it does appear that digital grocery more than doubled in the US.
[43:28] Wood shed delivery from Peter.
[43:30] Yeah that's the part where I sort of depends on how you count right like you could argue that like one that got acquired like shipped for example.
[43:42] Oh that's like tripled.
[43:44] Not with any retailer besides Target.
And I think I mean you know there's there's something there on the ropes a little bit but yeah that was a dumb part of the prediction so you can you're going to trust me anyway so don't you don't need a whole night.
[44:00] Oh when writing predictions don't don't like a daisy chain hands together because.
[44:06] When specifics yeah yeah.
2 + 1 is that is that I'm one-for-one right now feel free to stop listening to schoenauer.
[44:17] Okay the judges give you that one okay because we're going to flip your aunt's to Anor and give you one there alright your second prediction was drugs get disrupted by digital.
[44:30] Yeah and I mean a few things did happen that are interesting Amazon invested a billion dollars in pillpack they wash their first over-the-counter brand basic care
they partnered to do that like at home medical devices under the choice brand of course there's this big joint health care venture between Amazon Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan
but to me none of that adds up to a true disruption yet and I I mean I think there's some
is there a lot of interesting tea leaves to read this year but I'm I'm not going to argue that I should get a point there.
[45:12] All right and then your third prediction was the biggest trend of 2018 will be the AI Gap.
[45:21] So once again a stupid prediction how do you argue something is or isn't the biggest Trend but I think it's safe to say this wasn't so I kind of miss this one like you know I do think.
Aai was one of the hype things that got a lot of chatter in 2018 and there was one IPO that you could argue with sort of AI Commerce which is Stitch fix
realistically like I didn't I don't think we saw a i dramatically transformed any retailers and so my my way more specific prediction that.
Did the it would open a gap between the big retailers in the little retailers why I just don't think it's fair to say that happened so that was a dumb prediction and I'm I'm not one for 3.
[46:06] Okay I'll see how you did a number for you said his voice is going to be huge but not for Commerce.
[46:14] Yeah so again based on my fragile ego I feel like this one is climbing out of the hole a little bit
I do think of voice was huge I think Amazon alone has said they sold over a hundred million devices now it's their best-selling device on all their big days
that there's some by some metrics Google is actually.
Selling more devices in the last couple quarters than Amazon I'm not sure I totally believe that but but I do believe they're selling a bunch of devices as well until for sure,
voice over all was huge and I think even more clearly voice commerce was not there was some some data that came out in the third quarter that said that
less than 2% of people that own smart speakers that ever tried to do Commerce with it feel like the only only even moderate volume,
Commerce type applications were things like a Starbucks in the Uber for sure people are not ordering things with.
Complicated attributes and in promo codes via there their voice devices self.
Again I'm going to take the win there and which would put me at 2 for 4.
[47:32] Does that hundred million devices suppression.
[47:36] No because I mean some very low-cost devices we haven't talked that an issue I don't think that they now even have like
and you can frequently get devices free and as part of bundles but they never liked him $19 device that you can plug into any speaker.
And so they they just have all the price points in there you know there,
is you highlighted there a huge advertising platform than one of that biggest biggest media platforms on the on the planet and they generally dedicate about half of all their pixels to selling this stuff so I mean.
Today I am not shocked they sold that many devices if you if you ask me in a 3 years ago when they started this stuff if they would get there this past I probably would have said that shot.
[48:21] So just like
one way I think about this is probably 80% domestic 20% International I don't think they push the Alexa stuff is hard International so then to the pilot 89 us net,
that article is totally undermined right is global High thing.
[48:40] Yeah I think that was a global number.
[48:42] There's three hundred and fifty people are in the US 250 households 200 million households.
[48:51] Little north of 200.
[48:52] Yes it was just going to round numbers 200 million households 80 million devices there's going to be some
like your house that has 30 devices but that's like we on this Edge Neo so you know call it's approaching half us households have an Alexa device that's pretty amazing.
[49:13] Yeah for sure but it is I feel like it is pres been on them like they're lots of devices that get to that.
That 50% market share eventually and it depends on the technology took a long time but I do think one of the ramifications of the like modern digital era is.
That all of this happens much faster so you know it.
Adoption of new things just happens much more quickly than it did in the ear of radio or TV and so you know smart speakers, you know followed a similar trajectory to a lot of those other media technologies that they just did it in a way I can press time.
[49:47] God I wish I could give you two on this one but it's been our custom to just give one point prediction so sorry.
[49:53] Yeah totally totally fair.
[49:56] Then your payments so you said retail die.
And Bitcoin tanks so you didn't and in there.
[50:11] So like you got him like me for my poor Boolean logic
and again stupidly written like I call that some specific digital wallets that were the exceptions and those exceptions
large we did really well Starbucks did very well on there some evidence that Walmart did well Amazon you know his continuing to thrive is a digital wallet
I didn't spell out the digital wallets that wouldn't do well but in my mind there were two families of those there's Apple and Google which,
like all indications are are pretty flat so there are people using them in liking them but it but it does not appear that they're growing particularly fast and it doesn't appear that they're getting as much reuse as,
I'm sure they would hope so so our friends over it payments that that
track this like it kind of found ample in Google to be flat and then there was this whole genre of digital wallets from financial institutions so specific Banks like Chase and Citibank and the card issuers like MasterCard and visa and.
[51:13] Yeah none of those digital wallets are used by anyone that's not a family member of the company so I do feel like that that is fair and then stupidly put a hand in there
4 Bitcoin that had nothing to do with digital wallet so I have no idea why I did that but that is arguably,
my best prediction of the entire thing because I think Bitcoin was at $16,000 a coin and in that is the beginning of January that you wanted me to prediction and today it's at about 3:36 hundred bucks so it's
basically a quarter of its its former value so if you if you wanted to invest in any prediction in this entire,
in N last year's entire show the most money you could have made was to take my advice and short bed.
[51:59] Unless you were a Magento investor.
Are Flipkart okay and then finally you said Amazon will come out in the wearable and I think you have already dismissed.
[52:14] Yeah yeah thank you you are to cover that one so so I think you add all that up I'm I'm three out of five you're for it at 5 but with a like a much richer more impressive for.
[52:26] Cool thank you I appreciate the kikuta sir I think you did a good job but hopefully you learned some some important lessons about writing your predictions and let's let's jump into that you want to go first you want me to go first.
[52:39] I want to go first, before you jump in and in case we have any that overlap.
[52:45] Are you good for.
[52:46] So my first prediction is that Eddie Lampert is not going to launch a space exploration company.
Wait wait that's all right so cheating just making fun of your negative predictions
but I do like that one if anyone wants to keep it as my bonus my first one I guess I'm trying to have more measurable objective things I think
continuing the the evolution of Amazon's brick-and-mortar I think Amazon is going to have more than a thousand brick-and-mortar stores by the end of this year,
combination of goes Whole Foods in some other expansion of bookstore Concepts
but a thousand stores is a very meaningful brick-and-mortar retailers so if you go to like the
the NRF top list of retailers and you sort it by number of stores
a thousand stores makes you about the the 67th,
largest retailer in the US by number of stores and so in addition to all the other areas where Amazon's excelling in.
And dominating I feel like eating that thousands door threshold like definitely makes you as usually credible brick-and-mortar retailer and I think they're going to get there this year.
[54:04] Do you want to throw and and in there about.
[54:07] And Eddie Lampert is not going to want to space exploration.
[54:10] Okay alright I almost got that in here.
[54:14] So then my new strategy is just to take your predictions that didn't happen from the year before and doubled down on them.
So you last year said Walmart was going to make a big acquisition and you highlighted some of the last mile companies and you got credit for the making the big acquisition but it wasn't the last mile company,
I think they're going to fulfill the other half of your prediction this year and actually buy a Last Mile company.
And that's potentially potentially instacart Postmates taskrabbit but I also think something like that.
Adda live wood would totally toy fit in there so I'm I'm sure we'll see Walmart both organically grow and acquire.
Let more last-mile capability this year.
[55:07] Number 3 I am sad to say based on our previous conversations but I I think we are going to see another big beloved brand go bankrupt this year so I actually think.
In any way I do I told you I think that it was an unexpectedly good economy this year.
I am not as confident that we're going to sustain that for all of 2019 and there are you know it again I think that the the booming economy hasn't been.
Equally generous to all retailer so I do think there's some retards have had a tough going and I think as both get tightened a little bit that potential will be the last.
The last straw so you know I certainly think the department stores.
You know is a vulnerable category United by JCPenney certainly is vulnerable I think any of the category killers that used to win based on assortment you know aren't winning an assortment anymore do the online so you know that could be one of the.
The Office Products companies are Bed Bath & Beyond or some of those guys and you know when we talk about department stores.
You don't one super story brand in the US that you like I think is has a bunch of money a bunch of.
Debt due in 2019 and seemed to be having some some substantial disagreements with her creditors at the moment is Neiman Marcus so I would be sad to see them go but it seems like.
[56:35] Like they're going to have to do pretty well tough to forestall that so I'm afraid we'll see another another big bankruptcy this year.
[56:43] How many demons are there are they only like four big cities room.
[56:47] So it's not a huge footprint unless it's 40 spores and they own a couple other Concepts as well but yeah.
[56:57] Predictions for 4.
[56:59] I feel like I might have made a similar version of this before but the.
I'm bringing it back so mobile the mobile Gap getting narrower is my is my official predictions I think aided by a progressive web apps and payment API we are going to see.
Mobile really catch up to desktop in terms of conversion rate and also total sale so I guess I'll see you in my dreams specific prediction is.
That we have more mobile Commerce than desktop Commerce in if you take out tablets in 29th.
[57:40] And then last but not least.
[57:42] Yeah I'm taking you or negative predictions to the extreme and I'm just saying there's a bunch of pads that I don't think will will.
Be significant and in 2019 the first one is still going to be hyped this year and still going to be a fad.
I actually don't think there's going to be a ton of like customer-facing AI experiences or are frankly even way better personalization experiences in 2019.
I think we will see more more chatter around social commerce but it's still not going to catch on.
I don't think going to see any meaningful Traction in in VR for Commerce.
And I certainly don't think blockchain is going to be a very important element for most of Commerce so that you know there's the ones you you all of those Technologies are ones you hear people talk about a lot and.
Like I frequently intended rough drafts of retail Trends decks with all these things in a minute I just don't think any of them are going to be very Signet.
[58:44] Any any bonuses you want to put on there.
[58:47] I do the you talk about Amazon being forced to break out their ad Revenue do I actually think they're going to get forced to break out the revenue related to Prime Membership.
And I hope that happens cuz I think it would be super interesting to see what percentage of.
Of their their sales come from Prime and and you don't total total Prime Revenue in those sorts of things would be fascinating to know.
[59:15] Did you include, like a whole p&l there or just really Prime revenue and sales around Prime.
[59:22] Yeah I don't know how specific I want to get on bonus I don't think I official purposes I won't say piano but I hope that they have to get as granny or as.
Using Prime members as a segment for reporting Revenue.
So that's what I got hopefully it's better than last year hopefully I am I'm not getting.
I hope I am enjoying next year's version of the show more than I did this year's but the time we're finally to the part that I'm really looking forward to which is what Nostradamus thinks is going to happen for next year so Scott what do we got.
[1:00:00] Yeah it's always hard to follow up on him set up pretty good predictions and if you like last year the,
the chessboard was more clearly laid out for me than it is this year and and the
the tilt of the board is really hard so you know we're coming off a year where the economy was smoking and wages are going up but then we have a lot of changes in the political scene
there's lots of talk of impeachment there's like all kinds of craziness the garments closes record this really hard to know which way
the economy is going.
But you know whenever I'm on kind of the fence on these things I tend to be an optimist so it's my heart for real blood so I'm going to lean towards the positive side of things I think you know hopefully we navigate to all that I know,
Tailwind of a good economy in 2019 as an industry which I think we all agree would be good so.
My first prediction so following on that optimystix thing by first one's kind of negative so like you I agree we haven't seen you know.
[1:01:06] The end of this kind of I think it's a Dominos that are falling and I don't think a lot of people even kind of put that together yet
so like you seen Sears file Chapter 11 I don't think many stores come out of that I think we're down to a handful of Sears that's going to put pressure on malls I think that puts more pressure on JCPenney. If you look there stocks already down from for $2. The other two are heading into a delisting scenario below a dollar
I don't know what's going on with their creditors but all these old-school guys Leverage.
So you get into the stuff spiral it sure does feel like JCPenney's stuck into that. Spiral they have 860 stores.
[1:01:45] Macy's is Macy's is doing really well today,
but once you get stuck into this kind of swirling drain of mall-based retail it's really hard to get out of there and I do worry that they kind of there a domino that falls in there.
[1:02:01] I've already closed some stores to trim their footprint and their 660 more so I don't think they would do bankruptcy everything but I think they may have to sell some of those stores are closing so I'm going to say at least 5,000 more stores and if we can ever find the square footage I think it'll be,
about as bad as 2019 so I think 2017-18 was a huge step up 8
1617 and 17 18 wheeler big steps up I think we'll go sideways which is still going to be pretty bad though because that step up Rick kind of this
5000 larger stores whatever the equivalent Sopranos that I do believe was larger than 2017 just my first pregnancy
second one is you know your your buddy Scott Galway also known as Professor go away he is really big on TV telling everyone that the government's Crackdown on Amazon and for some spin-off AWS he's backed off that a little bit and now he's talking about well
maybe they'll have to have tracking stock I'm going to predict this is one of my anti production so you can Amazon
doesn't do those things but this will be the year that they know that adds does get broken out and I'll be specific here
as its own p&l kind of line out of the bath report because when I kind of build a spreadsheet and it got to take.
Cloud stuff which is AWS and how I think adds is growing and I think.
[1:03:30] Off the record I think you for ads will probably do as much as the rest of 2018 which is going to blow people's minds but it makes total sense,
me and probably you cuz that's what you would do if you were
brand new grass is so when I put in a spreadsheet and track them I believe it's going to be about the same size as AWS by like 20 22 or 23 1 and I've seen a couple of Reports say the same thing,
that is my second prediction and just to recap it again they're going to have to break out they won't and I put an end in here in tribute to.
To Jason they're not going to spin or tracking stock AWS but they will have to break out ads.
What's your prediction is I think too kind of the companies out there and I've talked about Amazon and it's in the ones that are struggling on Mosside you have kind of eBay and Alibaba they had come like what I would call up
computer in 2018 it is kind of you know it wasn't a great year it wasn't a bad year
but they both had they have type beat up over the last year at least companies both have leaders that they want to grow and be aggressive,
I feel like something's going to happen there and when I kind of think about it I've always thought this would be a perfect kind of combination so these these two companies just feel like they belong together to me so I'm going to call that there is going to be a combination there.
[1:04:52] Number for and I know she didn't really make platform prediction
the last platform that last chair kind of out there is Shopify now all the cloud and infection on this all all the cloud guys seem to have kind of bed on their platform rent and I will get them all but I think,
so then you may be single who's left by like a Shopify and then another footnote is shopify's really expensive assets oh yeah
honest AC it's like for 5 billion dollars but it has to be small revenue is going to use super high valuation so whoever buys this that really kind of limits the number of companies that buy it has to be super my prediction here is you have the ad platforms and specifically I'm thinking Google and Facebook,
they're just getting pummeled right now on the ad side from data collection and and you know all the things about
Russia hacking and all this in front of Congress just getting beat up
I think if I had 100% of my revenue from ads and I was one of those two companies I would be willing to spend a very large sum to diversify That rumney Base because I do think that business model is going to be under
external pressures for a while to mow predictions I think that last seat is taken by either fat Facebook or Google.
[1:06:14] To be an ally bother someone so I'm not to be super specific there but I do think Shopify gets taken out this year and my sis production is kind of an opposite one of you so we're going to
misaligned on this one I think Walmart has made a couple a lot of big bets over the last year and it's just really hard to get all this right so so spending that much on Flipkart I think
Amazon shareholder base is in
Amazon Walmart shoulder base isn't Amazon shareholder base and I think they look at that and they're kind of like scratching their head and thinking wow I could open a lot more stores I could then X Y and Z you could have written a dividend check so that they have a much different old school
master bass been Amazon does and I think that's going to put pressure on them this year so it's a,
prediction is that they're going to stumble so I think their growth rates going too slow I think they got a lot of early wins from Anna digitalizing the groceries I think a lot of those are one-time pops and,
they are going to get stuck in that to keep that growth up at that and I'm north of what they said 30 40%.
[1:07:18] They have to do some big m&a Flipkart has to go right
zlata has to go right there and I don't think we have that flexibility to navigate to that I think they're going to have a run,
I don't want that to happen so let me be clear I don't want that to happen I just think it's the natural progression of these things when you have a year where you put a bunch of bats on the table,
your tab another year we're not all those bets are going to go well and truly they they're probably brace for that I think.
[1:07:46] It's not going to be there nothing about a business or anything but it is going to be a tough year for them I think I'll do a cover set.
[1:07:53] Interesting well I think that's a terrific sort of
spectrum of predictions between the two of us and that is going to be a perfect place to leave it in the reason I say that is because we always right these show outline that we intend to be 30 45 minutes and I believe I predicted this show would be
70 minutes and right now we're at 67 minutes so I'm calling it I can be right about one thing it's how long the show is but
if you are disappointed that we could have shortened you there was something you wanted to discuss that we didn't get to or you have any questions about the show or ideas for future shows feel free to keep the dialogue going on Facebook you can jump on their pop a question will be happy to chat with you as always we greatly appreciate those five star reviews on iTunes that's a wonderful belated Christmas present to Scott or I so feel free to
the jump on there and we would greatly appreciate it.
[1:08:52] Thanks everyone for joining so hope you enjoyed the first show 2019 happy New Year and we look forward to spending 2019 with you talking about what's going on in e-commerce retail and the rest of
[1:09:08] Absolutely and so until next time happy commercing.