EP159 - 2019 Predictions and 2018 Recap
Our annual predictions episode for 2019 and a recap of our 2018 predictions.
2018 Recap - Predictions made on episode 112
Scot
- Mallageddon 2.0 - We saw 7000 stores close in 2017, I think this accelerates in 2018 as the 30-40% of weak malls fail closures. YES
- Amazon will NOT buy another offline retailer, triples down on private label. YES
- Amazon will squarely get in the last mile business in 2018 and compete with FedEx and UPS. NO
- Amazon’s ad group will get so large that they have to break out details about it and everyone will be shocked at how large it has gotten so quickly YES
- Walmart will make a big M+A - top candidates would be Instacart, postmates and eBay. YES
- Somebody acquires Magento, or they go public. YES
5/6
Bonus - Amazon comes out with Alexa powered wireless earbuds - because I want them. NO
Jason
- Grocery gets disrupted by digital (led by curbside pickup). Digital grocery doubles in US, at least one delivery firm peters out.YES
- Drug gets disrupted by digital. NO
- AI Gap - biggest trend of 2018 NO
- Voice - Huge but not for commerce. YES
- Payments - Retail digital wallets die (except Starbucks/Walmart/Amazon). Bitcoin tanks. YES
3/5
Bonus - Amazon launches a wearable. NO .
Scot crushes Jason!
2019 Predictions
Scot
- At least 5k more store closures in 2019
- Amazon - Prof Galloway is big on Amazon having to create a AWS spinoff and has moderated that to tracking stock. I’m going to predict Amazon doesn’t do either of those things. But this WILL be the year they break ads out.
- eBay/Alibaba - I think this is the year when the both need to do something big and the stars are aligning for a combination there.
- Shopify gets acquired by one of the big ad-based companies (facebook/google most likely)
- Walmart stumbles in e-commerce
Jason
- Amazon store count exceeds 1000 stores
- Walmart buys a last mile firm
- Another big bankruptcy (going to be a tougher than expected year, JCP, category killers Office, BBBY, Neiman)
- Mobile commerce revenue passes Desktop - Aided by PWA’s, and payment API’s we see mobile gap narrow
- Fads (Voice Commerce, Customer facing AI, SocialCommerce, VR BlockChain)
Bonus: Amazon breaks out Prime revenue.
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Episode 159 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday, January 6th, 2019.
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