EP249 - Holiday shipping data from ShipBob
Casey Armstrong (@CaseyA) is CMO at ShipBob, a third party logistics provider that offers e-commerce fulfillment for thousands of brands. They are able to see the carrier shipping performance for all those clients and provide aggregate data that gives us insight into holiday shipping performance, also known as #shipageddon.
Episode 249 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded live on Monday, December 7th, 2020.
Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.
[0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 249 being recorded on Monday December 7th 2020 I’m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I’m here with your co-host Scot Wingo.
[0:38] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners.
Jason we are officially a week past Cyber Monday and reports of ship Augustine are pouring into the Jason and Scot show virtual mailbox our interns are working full time parsing through everything.
So we appreciate everyone feeling this in ship again is also picking up a lot of momentum with the Main Street Press we’ve seen Wall Street Journal Bloomberg New York Times,
women’s wear daily your favorite Jason payments and one of my personal favorites supply and demand chain executive magazine.
I’m going to put that one on the mantle so so a lot going on there and the Press,
sort of capture all these resources we’ve published a little document that kind of highlights all the different hits if you will that ship again is getting you can find that at Jason Scott.com,
or Link in the show notes.
So today’s show we are going to get a strategic update on ship again and we are excited to have the CMO the chief marketing officer of shipbob Casey Armstrong on the show Welcome Casey.
[1:45] Hey guys thank you for having me.
[1:48] Oh my gosh Casey we are really grateful it’s super early in the morning where you are well we’re recording this so we appreciate that and if I’m not mistaken I think I hear the sounds of data being calculated behind you.
[2:02] It’s crunching in the background you know in the closets.
[2:06] I love it that’s what we call a teaser because we’re not going to get to what that is just yet but as longtime listeners of the show we’ll know we always like to start by getting a little bit of background about our guests and have a kind of
came to this awesome Commerce space so could you tell us a little bit about your background and how you came to shipbob.
[2:24] Yeah so I’m the CMOS you said over at shipbob
before shipbob I was actually the VP of marketing over at Bigcommerce who I’m sure your listeners are very familiar with and before that I helped run a company called watch master,
where we were a luxury watch brand primarily sold over in Europe and I’d say I’d say there is what really cemented,
my views of the pain of logistics and inventory management we were really good at we grew very quickly we got the tens of millions within our first year,
so we did a lot of things well shipping Logistics.
And inventory management were things that we didn’t necessarily do well and when your average order values you know five or six thousand Euros,
you need to do that while in so again really shed a light on that the Pains of logistics and was one of the many Catalyst to get me over to shipbob.
[3:21] Speaking of shipbob let’s dig into that so first of all explain to folks I think Jason I have a pretty good handle on what shipbob is but who’s this Bob guy and what is he ship.
[3:32] The bad guys remember when I was checking out ship I’m like who put that’s a pretty funny name over there,
um and actually if you hit any of our 404 pages to get really nerdy they it’s a nice play on Bob I should wear my Bob shirt right now so shipbob we bring you know Amazon level shipping and Logistics to,
small business you know e-commerce Brands we have 12 fulfillment centers around the world including one in Canada and one in Europe,
we can get into later the importance of having this this network of fulfillment centers and distributed inventory of helpful but long story short
it’s always nice to be closer to the end consumer because it’s faster for you it’s faster for them and it’s cheaper cheaper for both parties as well,
we’ll open up another three to five in q1 of next year as well.
We help support about 4,000 customers today and will ship well over 10 million orders this year.
[4:31] Colton the numb tell us what what’s your typical client you know Jason I spend a ton of time talking about digitally native vertical Brands direct to Consumer Brands so I imagine that’s a pretty good slice of what you do but
yep maybe there’s retailers maybe there’s other folks I haven’t thought about in there.
[4:46] Our focus is definitely direct-to-consumer and I think that’s that’s put us in a great position
as our company has a standalone company today and it’s also what’s really helped put our customers in a great position to you know navigate covid in 2020 and so it’s definitely a direct-to-consumer we are,
platform and channel agnostic so we have people selling across you know the shopify’s and Bigcommerce has and wix’s of the world you know even through Amazon and eBay and Facebook shop and everything.
[5:20] Yeah just to make sure everyone kind of is clear here because we’re going to talk about all these different legs of things so let’s say Jason and I there’s this huge demand for our tumblers,
we manufacture them somewhere we come up with a manufacturing partner in China then we have them shipped in bulk to you and then you,
I’m going to say this you tell me if I get anything wrong then let’s say we send them to I don’t know a California facility then you guys distribute them through your network and then as the consumer in
main orders a Tumblr they get the closest fulfillment center the consumer in Seattle orders one they get a closer fulfillment center but you guys do not do the last mile delivery right you’re using carrier so you’re that fulfillment center Network in the middle is that
is that the right characterization.
[6:06] Yes that’s a great characterization we don’t we’re not we’re not lost Mile right now for the most part for most of our customers they choose which fulfillment center they would like to utilize or fulfillment centers
and so before anybody starts with us you know we analyzed all of their shipping data
which of course learns over time as well but they can at the end of the day also just choose which fulfillment center they utilize,
you know we give them the data for the for a reason and then even within shipbob everyday can just in our analytics section you can just click a couple of buttons and and start seeing how much time and money you’d save by Distributing it to other select centers.
[6:45] Yeah one another I’ve been poking around your site a lot and I do like
I’m gonna give you the unofficial Jason Scott show most awesome 404 page because there’s also a Star Wars tie-in and I don’t.
Look for folks but if you can just go to any random page like you can just do Scott or Jason or something shipbob.com and then you’ll find I recommend checking out the for one page.
[7:06] I smell when I have to get a Jason and Scott page on there.
[7:10] I was going to say wait Jason is that 404 are I feel like everyone should have a Json page.
[7:14] When your shipbob you got to stick to the gotta stick to the bottom.
[7:20] Well let’s speaking of the Bob one of the things that is very handy from my perspective about your company is so obviously you guys ship via a lot of the common carriers and you publish
data about how those carriers are performing like how did that come about.
[7:41] So our CEO or I should say both of our Founders drips back saying then De Vega Lodi there they’re very open.
And just transparent with our new organization and I think that just really trickles down and some of that came with some of the carrier tracking data,
and so we were discussing this internally on our side and we get we were getting asked this all the time from different partners of ours and
and then one day Drew was like hey why don’t we just publish this,
which was honestly all the thumbs up that we needed you know it was a casual ask and it was a Friday I don’t know when this was probably sometime in early Q3,
and so a colleague of mine and I were like okay let’s jump all over this we pulled in somebody on the analytics team and later that day the V12 this was published and so we saw the.
[8:33] The thumbs up there and decided to get this out there and ever since we published it we knew that people would want to consume it but it’s just been great to see the reception of it how people are are often citing and referring to it,
it’s always interesting to see the people that sign up to get access to to our updates as well but in when we published I think it was,
like right when covid hit we published our Trends piece that Trends got shipbob.com which showed a breakdown of,
all the a lot of the main verticals and that did really well and starting getting shared a lot and so okay how can we continue to open up some of our data which of course we share with,
with our customers and with my fellow colleagues but just open this up for the masses.
[9:22] And so honestly I had some concern about what how would the carrier’s react and I don’t know maybe there’s some,
non-public conversations we can have about how they’ve reacted to some of the data we’ve put out there but you know we wanted to throw it out there and I really wanted to get some geodata live shortly as well it’s really cool to see like.
Which states and areas are order spiking especially as different covid news comes in and even,
you know which which states are spending the most on e-commerce and maybe the most per capita just just a lot of variation data out there.
[9:59] Cool so the just so for listeners I think you said it but I’ll just re say it in case it’s carriers with a
plural does shipbob calm is the page one thing I find distracting about the pages you have this cool truck animation and sometimes I just get stuck watching the track animation I’m just kind of like.
I don’t know there’s something about that that I don’t forget to scroll I just watching the little trucks racing each other the so first of all if we so you said 10 million orders and that was annually right.
So if we kind of like a million orders a month kind of on average I guess and it you know I imagine you guys are growing pretty rapidly so there’s kind of a tilt to that line up into the right hopefully and you know so.
Can you tell us like a pie chart like who are the biggest shippers that you guys have just we can start there.
[10:54] Yeah so it’s a lot of the the major carriers it’s FedEx USPS ups and DHL those are by far our top four we work with you know subsidiaries of those carriers and we also work with local carriers.
That’s something that we started in Q2 of this year or I should say accelerated especially with somebody just the carrier demands.
But those are by far our topic of strippers.
[11:21] Okay and when your clients come to you like let’s say the Jason and Scott Tumblr store when we come to you do we say hey we have a relationship with FedEx and we’re going to you know go with them or do you guys have,
because you skip so much volume you can probably get a better rate than us individually do put put people kind of on their own like a shipbob shipping program that has a certain flavor or is it a hybrid so some have direct relationships some are kind of,
where you’re in the middle.
[11:48] We’re always in the middle and so you’ll always use our account.
And so like you mentioned not only does that help you from like a pricing standpoint because obviously we’re shipping a lot more than.
Most people but also I mean there’s a lot of other benefits as well such as you know our negotiations on our behalf are also on your behalf and so great examples with as you guys keep sharing ship a get in.
And some of the carriers.
Limiting you know not just small businesses but you know I know there’s a big story in Wall Street Journal em ups limiting Nike Gap Macy’s.
Every single customer of ours would have to be negotiating their limits with the carrier or carriers of their choice.
And again so we’re doing that on their behalf and we have our Network to distribute and move these Goods around,
and so they get to take advantage of that as well and so that’s been that’s been I know another huge win that we don’t necessarily share with our customer base too much but you know that’s one of the things that people have been able to I’d say better navigate ship again over the last couple weeks.
[12:59] Yes it’s so by aggregating all these kind of individual small folks you’re bigger than Nike or somebody so therefore you have a little bit more heft when it comes to carriers by saying you can’t turn us off because
if I do the math on your shipping like 30,000 things a day which is pretty material right.
[13:17] Yeah and I mean in over the last couple weeks it’s a lot more than that and.
[13:23] Spikes up double triple.
[13:24] Yeah and you know of course so our leadership is talking to their leadership all the time and like you said with growing mean,
will double again next year and so they want to they want to continue to get that business and so that just I’d say put this in a favorable spot.
[13:42] Absolute Okay so
the reason we’re recording this Monday morning is you are giving our listeners a little bit of an early Taste of what’s coming out here so so walk us through what you’re going to be revealing here on December 7th with the data.
[13:58] Yeah so and and I appreciate your,
you guys want any to share this out there and how you guys love refreshing the carrier’s data like you and also like my six-year-old big fan of the the gift at the top as well,
remember he saw that he’s like I want that what are those cool trucks I want that thing.
And so yes I’m happy to share with the latest and greatest numbers are that we’re seeing this week I do want to give a caveat though something
the three of us briefly discussed before we jump up jumped on which I think is a pretty serious issue that not everybody is familiar with,
and that’s that’s on the carrier scans and so at each point within the supply chain,
your you know your supply chain vendors whether that’s your 3pl because we scan the orders throughout several points in the process on our end to when we put it let’s say into a gaylord to get picked up.
[15:00] And you can go Gaylords is this a know massive bucket if you will get picked up by the carriers.
Between the carriers pick it up from our facilities or supposed to scan it and as it goes through different sort facilities or I should say every single officer supposed to scan and then scan once it gets to your house,
and so something that a lot of people have seen and I’m sure a lot of everybody listening who were all consumers have seen as well as there’s no tracking on my order or hey my order hasn’t even been shipped yet that’s not necessarily the case,
and so again just one of the caveat some that there have been some you know the carrier’s can issues and Willie first scan,
the numbers there have dropped significantly since around Black Friday,
and so again we’re cleaning up some of the data on our end but it’s just been interesting to see that I know my wife was stressing out because she’s like I ordered your gift a while ago they haven’t even picked it yet and then the next day it was delivered.
And so she as well just they’re trying to move orders not necessarily scan all the time so that being said yeah I’m happy to walk through the data and tell you what we’re seeing this week.
[16:13] Yes it feel free to forget the sequence on the page but you know there’s like obviously I think the big for FedEx UPS US Postal Service and detail what where we see in for this last week.
[16:23] Yeah so we can start actually I’ll start start at the bottom and so start with USPS.
And we’re actually seeing them at around four point four point one five.
Days and that’s from order picked date to delivery date and that’s up from about 3.5 that is a 20% week over week jump,
and again this is I mentioned some of the carrier scan information.
[16:55] Um and so you know that’s that’s a pretty significant jump It’s a almost 65 percent above what their pre,
transit times were and again these are during aggregate like we mentioned you know will do.
You know we’re doing well over a million orders or the last you know Black Friday Cyber Monday weeks so this is some pretty strong volume that we’re basing this off of but this is across all different zones
so we could of course get more granular there but want to provide the aggregate data and so pretty significant jump,
I foresee that holding for at least probably another week just because a lot of these these carriers are are very stressed.
And stretched and so on DHL,
it actually did not jump as much as expected it actually just jumped from about 1% week over week.
[17:55] And which actually is pretty surprising to me which is still about 30 percent above the time in transit
DPS data we’re still cleaning up and so I can follow up with you guys shortly after that and I’d say the biggest jump in the most surprising and maybe this is because they’re often rather rather diligent on the scan tracking,
would be FedEx,
and so they they course-corrected very well after covid there was there about a three-month span where they were shipping well over there their pre covid levels and then it was really about August.
[18:30] Before they started getting back to.
The pre covid shipping the shipping times and then because they were hiring like crazy just like us just like Amazon just like Walmart,
they were actually able to get it.
Pretty significantly below their pre covid shipping levels and then this last week it just spiked like crazy and so went from less than the 3 Day average Transit time 23.6.
Which is which is a huge jump week over week,
and so I’d say FedEx definitely had the biggest jump you know I have a lot of confidence and how they execute and they’ll be able to get things back to normal but they definitely saw the biggest job.
[19:11] What percentage does that.
[19:13] I think that’s like a close to 25% week over week jump.
[19:16] 25% okay yeah yeah and then you know another thing that’s interesting is if you refuse packages that’s one way of.
Not that they are doing that for you but overall their Network that’s one way of mitigating this right is and that’s what we’re hearing about in The Press is you know so so that’s.
That’s going on somewhere which is interesting to think about as well have they haven’t refused any packages from you guys something.
[19:41] No we’ve been we’ve been pretty clear so far another thing that we have as well is in both the greater Chicago in Greater Dallas region we have multiple fulfillment centers.
So not only can we move inventory let’s say between.
You know Chicago and Dallas to help with Transit time but we can move them with in Chicago and with in Dallas just to take advantage of you know the different limits that we might have within specific facilities.
[20:12] Yeah so let me just replay that for Wisner so so a carrier makes a to you,
man we’re just maxed out in Chicago you say okay we’re going to run our own 18 wheelers between Chicago and Dallas and load balance kind of within your system to react to the externalities of the other systems is that
is that what you’re saying.
[20:32] Well I’m saying even more granular they might say that your building is maxed out and then you can move it from one Chicago building to another Chicago building.
[20:43] Wow that’s interesting doesn’t make a ton of sense but I guess in their world it does.
And you know yeah and for listeners that haven’t been in a big fulfillment center you know usually there’s just 18 wheelers parked outside so the big carriers will just park those right out there and then when they’re full they’ll drive off is that is that kind of what what’s going on here.
[21:03] Yeah we’ve got in most of our facilities I want to say 20 to 30 plus doctors and they just you know we’ve got dedicated lines on each of the major carriers and we’re just yeah film those things up all day every day.
[21:18] Cool and then within that FedEx 3.6 lot of people not may not know about FedEx is actually several systems that the two that are the probably most relevant are the air and the ground you guys break that out is this like mostly in ground.
[21:32] So this is all growz.
[21:34] That’s all ground okay.
[21:36] And that’s a big thing to love people don’t realize as well as are like well how can I offer to day fast shipping and they’ll often look at are.
Anybody can ship from one location,
you know two to three days or less via are it’s just exponentially more expensive and that’s why you know you want to get closer to the end consumer and and you offset that with are to the places you can’t get to Via ground and do as much ground as possible.
[22:01] Anything else on FedEx or should we jump to UPS.
[22:04] We can we can jump.
[22:07] Right hit us with UPS how are they doing.
[22:09] So the UPS one is the has lost one that all I can share with you guys after so still waiting on some of UPS data.
[22:17] Well the reason that one’s interesting is if I remember if I go to my and I try not to get stuck on the gift,
look at the last data you guys dropped they were feeling the pain right so they were at like four point five days and they had been.
Up and to the right on the delays do you need anything directional you think they’re got some relief or.
[22:39] I think they’ve got some relief I think they’ve been doing they’ve been doing a bit better.
[22:44] Yeah and you know my.
Again just watching the data here it feels like they’ve been the most aggressive it kind of saying hey we’re kind of maxed out don’t give us any more packages right now which could be that that’s how you get some relief on this as you.
You have to increase the number of deliveries and the throughput and stop taking in as much stuff to give the system time to catch up.
[23:06] That’s a great call out I’m glad you mentioned that because I think that’s where we’ve been fortunate and all our customers and our customers been fortunate is if we haven’t been hit by limits,
then they’re able to ship out you know more similarly than they did pre you know peak season.
Because they are limiting these these major brands are limiting Nike their limiting Gap delimiting Macy’s their lives their limiting small businesses that are shipping on their own.
All the time there’s just you know I feel for a lot of these brands are some pretty bad horror stories I know this.
Company house has been pretty public with it with their just getting slapped with limits of phenol 500 orders a day at the most
and if not you have to go take things too you know the post office yourself and so it’s it’s been tough for a lot of companies.
[24:04] And ultimately it’s a bad customer experience right so the shipper is get to say so let’s use the house example because they’ve been so public the shippers get to say well it wasn’t our fault we didn’t ruin Christmas but house still has upset customers right and
the customers expectation is I press the the checkout button and.
I don’t really care who’s problem it is your mr. brand it’s your job to get me my product and so it’s gonna be really frustrating these brands.
They to be DTC part of your DNA has to be super customer centricity and then to not be able to get your product to people is going to be just like you know wildly frustrating subside I feel that pain and.
I’m glad companies like you guys are able to have a solution for small Brands to solve this because,
sometimes you can use FBA for this kind of thing but Amazon hasn’t really done a ton around off Amazon FBA because they obviously pref.
Apply a preferential treatment to their in-network kind of stuff so,
I think it’s great that we’re seeing and you know to be clear there’s a lot of you guys have a lot of competitors out there I think it’s great we’re seeing these kind of independent fulfillment center networks that have an FBA kind of a flavor,
there is this whole 3pl thing but it’s generally not designed the way you guys are that’s friendly for smaller direct consumer type businesses so,
so I think I think it’s it’s going to be a really interesting Trend over time that businesses like yours are able to solve a pretty material problem out there.
[25:34] It’s you know you mentioned Amazon I’ll get back to them and one sack and also just like the customers and their empathy levels.
It’ll be interesting to see how that all plays out you know of course 2020 has been an interesting year to say the lease or is not a lot of empathy for,
I think different companies at the started covid then things kind of is like all right this is the new normal but just how people,
I’d say act around the holidays which is often just a stressful time in general and then you know for many out there Christmas is really the deadline of trying to get gifts or I should say maybe even Christmas Eve
to get things under the tree I ordered this was one was this I think this was Thursday or Friday,
I ordered the typical silver iPad as a gift for somebody.
And this is Apple I don’t know what they’re at right now 1.5 trillion dollar valuation or Mark Gap I should say and,
it told me that it wasn’t going to get here until January 5th this was just your run-of-the-mill silver iPad it was probably Scott to be one of their top five top ten most sold items and it was over a month,
before we going to get to my house.
[26:47] And so you know a lot of other people are feeling this strain and then even Amazon I mean Amazon’s incentivizing people with with slow shipping,
and even if you order some rather common goods you know even on Prime it’s still showing 5 6 day delivery speeds.
[27:07] I do want to differentiate a couple of things and I don’t know this to be the case but my suspicion is Apple’s biggest problem which we’ve heard from a number of people that like popular Apple products have.
Very long delivery times right now which are Beyond Christmas the likelihood is a significant portion of their their problem is,
inventory not just carrier capacity.
[27:32] I don’t doubt that it’s inventory but.
And who am I to give any suggestions to Apple and how they run their business but they don’t give you that there’s no there’s no I’d say,
transparency or communication back to the the customer that it might be an inventory issue I know some of our merchants.
That have I’d say dun dun best and there are obviously a lot smaller than Apple
but then I’ve done best you know this year you just been very transparent and what’s going on in their operations and those happening in their business or maybe things are sold out and they’re using that to their benefit,
but you know at least to the end consumer this not you know reading the general or I should say like the deeper news on Apple you know they didn’t mention anything like an inventory issue it’s like we’ve got this.
Order it now and then you pee and then it tells you.
[28:25] So a it clear best practice that I know you’d agree with is like surprises are absolutely the worst,
thing you can do to the customer right so you need you want to communicate this win up when will I get it information early in the shopping process not after they’ve entered a bunch of their payment information and then you go oh by the way when you click confirm
this isn’t going to get here in time for Christmas like that’s the absolute worst thing you can do,
and a lot of sellers we have a lot of opportunity on the table by not being transparent and not having good communication so pretty your point.
If for whatever good or bad reason apple has a bunch of 256 Meg or gig iPads in stock but not 512s in your ordering a 512 and it’s going to miss Christmas.
Early in that that shopping funnel you want to tell that customer by the way if you’re willing to accept a different memory configuration.
We can make it for Christmas right not just surprised them at the end of their cart.
By telling him you can’t I would say there are inventory issues this year like because of covid it disrupted a lot of Supply chains nine months ago that we pay the price for now.
[29:41] Brands got conservative about their cell through when they weren’t sure what covid-19 Ado demand and then their categories that Apple plays in a lot for example where.
There was just unanticipated demand like nobody forecasted in March that the majority of kids in America would be doing school from home and therefore need more technology at home right.
So all of those things play into it.
[30:10] And obviously the shipping is a very real problem but Casey I do want to talk for a minute about the.
[30:20] The shippers that are denying packages so let me tell you my understanding and see if this jives with yours a I feel like there’s two big buckets there are very big shippers.
For which this is not remotely a surprise like they they they had a conversation the carrier’s had a conversation with these very big shippers like Nike.
June and said hey what kind of capacity are you guys looking to allocate for a holiday and they negotiated a capacity.
And the only thing that’s different about this year than previous years is in previous years what the carriers would say is and if you end up selling more and ship more than your negotiated capacity you’re going to pay a surcharge,
so those incremental shipping.
Parcels will be more expensive and this year they’re saying if you ship more than your allocated capacity we might not be able to accept the packages because we’re we’re worried about our overall capacity so so I just want to say for the Nikes and gaps of the world.
They knew exactly how many orders they could take and how many shipments they could they could make.
Maybe they hope the those those capacities wouldn’t be enforced but they they weren’t surprised at the last minute by UPS going by the way we’re not going to come by your office today.
[31:38] I would say they were probably pretty accurate in their assumptions.
How many things how many items were actually sold into they have Smart teams and smart data scientist doing the forecasting I know that we.
Pretty far exceeded our Progressive forecasts of shipments,
let’s say over the last two weeks and I wouldn’t be surprised to see you know the Nikes of the world you know Nike is continuing to massively accelerate their e-commerce growth but I wouldn’t be surprised if they underestimated.
And underestimated from different locations and then also there’s one thing to be told that hey we’re not going to pick things up,
and you’ve heard this before and they’ve always picked it up it’s another thing for them to like not actually come and pick it up,
and so I think that that’s something that a lot of these big Brands especially these big brands that are not used to being told no.
Are actually seeing.
[32:42] Yeah I would totally agree with that and then I wit you also alluded to one other thing which I think is a funny loophole in this whole thing the carriers are not in the business of denying packages,
so they don’t actually like that they don’t actually have a great infrastructure.
For enforcing these quotas so so for example if you’re a huge shipper and you deliver you know a container full of packages to a carrier Distribution Center.
They don’t scan every parcel on that truck before they unload the truck.
[33:13] They they unload the truck and then they disposition of those Parcels overtime right and so they actually don’t have my senses they don’t have software,
that says like oh deny that box don’t accept it,
what they do is they say oh you know what this shipper has exceeded their quota we’re not going to send a truck to that that fulfillment center to pick up their orders today,
and so that that’s their mechanism for denying it and so frankly a ton of big and small shippers I have heard of have bypassed this whole thing,
by dropping the packages off somewhere else in the in the carrier supply chain so per your point,
you get a pickup cancel that one fulfillment center you move the packages to the other fulfillment center or you drive the,
the package has two of FedEx distribution center and drop them off or even to a local FedEx office in some cases and drop them off and there’s there’s not someone in that store that like scans your shipper code and goes oh I can’t accept this package,
so that I think that is a funny way people are are bypassing some of these quotas for this year for For Better or Worse.
[34:24] And also trying to bypass because another thing that is completely maxed out or trucks like go try to rent a truck in any major city and you’re not going to be able to.
Um you know there have been pictures of Amazon employees just delivering stuff from their car but it’s just pretty fascinating the creativity that
different brands are employing and again that’s just another part of the supply chain like go try to run a big truck you can’t.
[34:52] Cool yeah we’ve we’ve been reporting on that on the ship again side and as a guy that has 200 trucks right now,
it’s a feels good that we have what we have,
that’s but that’s a podcast for Another Story Another Day so really appreciate you walking us through kind of the Tactical where we are right now I want to use our last kind of ten minutes here to to kind of go back up to 30,000 square feet and get out of,
kind of covid world and what we’re experiencing,
let’s talk about this this is probably a quick window so I think you have any perspective coming from Bigcommerce and then now being it shipbob shopify’s doing some things around fulfillment and whatnot.
I haven’t have to be honest have attracted a hundred percent my understanding is they may have one or two fulfillment centers and then kind of trying to Overlay something on top of stuff,
do you see a day where they’ll get more involved in either the Fulfillment center side or even last mile delivery.
[35:51] I mean they are involved in the Fulfillment center side,
Last Mile I’m not the right person to ask there I mean that’s like a whole nother Beast I mean Amazon’s been a logistics company forever and you know they started getting into Last Mile just a couple of years ago.
And so you know my guess is they’ll continue to try to understand the Fulfillment center side better and you know as they learn that more you know maybe continue to expand I think that they’re their CEO and,
leadership team definitely think a long-term so you know who knows what they’ll eventually roll out.
[36:27] It’s hard to be a you know high-margin software company and then say to Wall Street we’re going to open.
80 fulfillment centers it’s just it’s just a if you started fulfillment centers then that’s one thing and you kind of go from low margin high margin it’s very hard to go from high margin to the merchant,
companies have done it but this is a reason you haven’t seen Google or Ebay take that plunge as they’ve,
they’ve kind of got their business model pretty baked and it’s hard to mix in a lower margin asset heavy type thing into a asset light model so it’s gonna be interesting to see if they ultimately do that or not.
[37:04] Yeah I mean Google launched the perfect business model with insane margins so it’s tough for them to change that Amazon on the other hand you know going from Shipping books to AWS it’s a nice story to tell.
[37:17] To selling ads exactly.
[37:19] Yes to selling ads.
[37:21] Turns out the Google business model is better for everyone so I’m curious.
In the past there are a bunch of sellers that may be primarily relied on Amazon for demand
and so they primarily used Amazon for fulfillment and you alluded to you know in our current craziness even Amazon is having to make hard decisions about,
fulfillment priorities it seems like more than than there has been in recent times,
there’s a smart argument to having a diversification of your supply chain in your shipping options are you seeing a lot of new people come into your echo system and want to add you to their mix because they were,
single sourced on FBA and now realize that’s not the best place to.
[38:05] We definitely are and I think it’s also I think that’s going to take honestly several years to fully play out or longer because somebody who makes a you know,
who runs their business on Amazon versus somebody who you know runs their business on their own site or on their own site and then a Marketplace like Amazon is complimentary
it’s just a very different business and it’s different skills that you have to learn over time and so you know we are a complement to Amazon we are partnered with Amazon.
[38:37] Um but I think that some of the things that have happened this year such as Amazon limiting,
what you can what they will receive multiple times,
Amazon limiting what you can ship out a friend of mine he’s a 10 million dollar plus a year seller on Amazon he’s been selling on Amazon for well over a decade he was getting told.
[39:05] Fuse getting told that they can’t ship certain items of his this is like early covid,
they could ship like let’s just say widget a the black widget,
they could ship that but widget would it be which was just like the white color they couldn’t ship that out and you know it’s just like there was there was no Rhyme or Reason there was nobody to talk to on the other end it was just,
this is the law and so we’ve just seen that play out a few times again from the types of inventory that you can receive they’ve been Turning Away product,
at their fulfillment centers and then you know brands are just left scrambling with no idea what to do that supply chain experts and even,
you know they’ve always increase their warehousing cost during Q4 but just seeing these the surcharges and their rules and because they’re running such a massive supply chain and a massive organization
they have to make these changes and I know they’ve been hiring like crazy to not have to make things too difficult.
But just when they when they make a change that’s the rule and there’s you know there’s there’s no gray area there’s no wiggle room.
[40:10] Yet it’s a it’s interesting you say Amazon’s a partner I think a lot of people that aren’t as in the weeds as we are the three of us that kind of scratch their heads because.
You know they have this mental image of this kind of hierarchy of things and it’s actually more of kind of this overlapping graph right so,
so for example what I imagine you’re saying is if I’m a merchant and I have my product at shipbob you guys probably are able to have that
marked as prime using the program they’ve changed the name of this like a thousand times I call it Merchant fulfilled Prime sometimes they call it seller fulfilled Prime whichever one you want to call it,
is that you guys are you guys is that something that is part of what you do.
[40:51] So we do fulfillment by merchants or fbm.
[40:54] That’s the new name.
[40:56] Yeah how they’re going to.
It’s going to be interesting to see how Amazon takes seller fulfilled Prime over time because you know they’ve been somewhat opaque with this but you know reading between the lines I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes considerably in 2021.
[41:15] Yeah because it’s hard for everyone to live up to the prime promise right so what they’re doing is they’re kind of trying to extend the rings of the Prime promise and you guys can live up to that because you’re at a big scale,
which is a 12 or 14 fulfillment centers if I’m Joe Schmo and my garage is my fulfillment center,
it’s increasingly hard for me to live up to that Prime promise there’s this balance between flexibility out on the edge of the network but then living up to the prime promise.
enemy and that’s what they’re known for Amazon Amazon Prime and you know they did an amazing job two day shipping is you know they’ve made a thing and then they were really pushing towards one day the beginning of the year.
[41:58] And in this fbm program that’s the one that set up for more like 3pls to offer prime prime eligible products has at Zara.
[42:08] Prime or non Prime but yes.
[42:09] Yeah okay so primer no problem so the user you can then your customer can say all right I want these skus to be marked as Prime within even going down to the Zone kind of thing but these I don’t really want to be prime is that how it works.
[42:24] Yeah that’s that’s a good summary right there.
[42:27] And then last question so so one Theory I have is Amazon’s kind of shown,
that you can go build a last mile delivery Network right and you know so what is it like 3 years old two and a half years old,
doesn’t feel like it’s that old to me so with their DSP program they’ve really scaled up this this very quickly do see is that something you guys would be interested in or do you see other people building a,
DSP like last mile delivery because that.
The one thing ship again has taught me is there there’s way more things that want to get to Consumers than there are trucks on the road right now.
[43:04] We currently don’t have plans to get into Last Mile again you know we’re thinking long-term as well and so,
things could change over time that’s not on the shipbob roadmap for 2021,
I don’t see that on the road map for 2022 but you know who knows for us it’s really like.
How do we democratize fulfillment for brands of all sizes and so you know going deeper into what we can ship to new fulfillment centers to kidding to be to be more International our app store.
But yeah last Mile and actually running like a carrier service that’s you know it’s quite a bit of a different business.
[43:48] Yeah one
One Stop Gap in there is we also over on the side we’ve developed you know all these interesting three-sided Marketplace has largely for delivering food or people
but those can also be used for delivering products so we’ve seen instacart for example known for groceries now working with I think it was Jason fact check me was at Sephora or Ulta one of those and a bunch of other.
[44:09] Sephora for sure but actually dozens of retailers they’re doing Last Mile for now.
[44:13] Yeah and you could you can see I’ve heard Uber and Lyft talk about this I was watching the door – IPO thing and they talked about you know they were pretty plainly saying food is just one of many if we can get ice cream to you we can get you anything,
do you see a world where maybe those guys slot in and they could be this last mile delivery Network.
[44:32] Hey could I think they need to figure out like the sortation or Distribution Center side of the business because let’s take you know those into the companies you mentioned or like uber.
A company like us we want to you know fill up an entire truck.
And then send the truck off and then have them you know back in another truck,
we don’t want a bunch of sedans coming in and picking up five boxes.
So it’s going to be a shame to see how they navigate that because I think that there’s a lot of opportunity there
but again they need to figure out how they are sorting these packages and tracking these packages
and then also doing it in a cost-effective manner as well because sometimes you know they’ll try to enter the market because on paper looks great,
and it works in their Excel models but then when they roll it out there’s just it can be a logistical nightmare at times and then also Blake its it can be cost prohibitive to them because it’s
it’s involving people and people are expensive and there’s a lot of room for error and then what they want to charge maybe a company like shipbob is.
Much more expensive.
Then what we can pay the regular carriers and it’s not necessarily even more effective or faster and so if it’s not faster and cheaper I’m yeah it’s not faster and cheaper than you know why would we evaluate it.
[45:53] That makes total sense Casey and that’s probably going to be a good place to leave it because
it has happened again we’ve used up all our allotted time for today’s show I really appreciate you taking time out early in the morning on what I know is a super busy day for you but if you like
Scot and I and our listeners benefited greatly from the chat so as usual if folks have any questions or comments feel free to hit us up on Twitter or Facebook page,
as always if you enjoyed the show we’d love it if you jump on iTunes and give us that five star review.
[46:26] Thanks Casey if folks want to find obviously we’ve talked about the carrier’s. Shipbob but do you pontificate out on the interwebs and if so where should folks go to read your pontiff occations.
[46:37] If you have any questions for me you can always hit me up see Armstrong at shipbob calm I’m on Twitter as well Casey a and like Jason and Scott mentioned go give them a five-star.
[46:49] Awesome really appreciate that and until next time happy Commerceing!
EP248 - Cyber 5 with Salesforce's Rob Garf
Cyber Week online sales unfolded in the pattern we expected after the first three quarters of the year. Digital sales surged an unprecedented 71% in Q2 globally and significantly grew 55% in Q3 globally. We forecast 30% growth for the entire holiday season, November 1 – December 26. For the largest two digital days of the season, specifically, Black Friday came in right on target with 30% growth and Cyber Monday grew at a lower rate of 18% year-over-year (YoY) globally.
We cover key trends, including changes to holiday behavior due to Covid-19, winners and losers, mobile trends, promotion trends, and omni-channel tactics.
Episode 248 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded live on Tuesday, December 1st, 2020.
Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.
[0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 248 being recorded on Tuesday December 20
twenty that’s December 1st I can’t believe it’s already December I’m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I’m here with your clothes Scot Wingo.
[0:42] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott’s show listeners.
It’s the day after Cyber Monday Jason’s on his 10th venti latte so he’s a little jumpy he’s a little excited this is a big day for him this is where he really,
really earns this keep over at big company he works for earns every letter of that title that he has there.
Jason it is after Cyber Monday and we are here to help listeners dig into what happened with the Cyber five turkey five or it seems like the Hipster thing this year is be fcm not sure what that stands for but that’s what everyone is saying.
Join us on the show and walk us through what they saw and their data is Rob Garth he is the VP of strategy and insights of retail and consumer goods at a little software company called salesforce.com.
[1:31] Hey Scott hey Jason such a pleasure to be here happy I guess cyber we khash sorta kinda happy holidays anyways.
[1:38] Happy giving Tuesday.
[1:40] There you go good call.
[1:44] Scot always has to take the high road doesn’t he.
[1:47] I know he’s so good he’s so good.
[1:48] It’s awesome to have you on the show Rob part of me I’m debating whether we should pretend that we haven’t been talking all day all ready or not.
[1:56] Yeah I don’t know how do you want to play that off but it’s good to talk to you as always and I still what we’re going to talk about today I wonder.
[2:04] Yeah I don’t know there’s anything going on in the industry but before we jump into it one of the things we always like to do on the show is give listeners a little bit of background about our guests so can you give us the
the recap about how you got into the digital Commerce Basin and what you do at Salesforce.
[2:21] Yeah sure absolutely it again,
thank you so much such a privilege to be on your show and certainly during this crazy time of the holidays to be able to share some data share some stories and get all of our,
perspective so as you mentioned I head up our strategy and insights team for retail and consumer goods I came to Salesforce by way of the,
demandware acquisition which is coming up on about five years but been in around retail for gosh quite some,
time including practitioner back in the day leading
e-commerce for Lids I then moved to the analyst world where LED retail for am our research which got acquired by Gartner and then prior to joining demandware I led retail strategy yet
IBM so kind of sat on,
all sides of the table and it’s kind of fun in my role now I kind of put all the hats on that I’ve learned throughout the 20 25 years and,
certainly I can get into that when it’s appropriate but I have one of the coolest jobs just behind Jason in the industry.
[3:31] I dispute that last point but I feel like you’ve forgotten your most important qualification you are also holder of a 10 out of 10 score on rate my room.
[3:43] Yeah you know that’s right and I take that with a lot of gratitude and humility because you know what – was struggling as a lot of us have been,
for last eight months to get the perfect rig and,
the perfect background and certainly outdone by the way by my 14 year old but I try to at least keep Pace as best as I can and pretty sight to not only get rated but did pretty darn well as well.
[4:12] Yeah congrats on that that’s that’s awesome the let’s dig into the data maybe we’ll start it kind of the days so this all kicks off with Thanksgiving and culminates and Cyber Monday what,
what did you guys see either absolute value wise or growth wise through the five days and how did that match up to kind of what you were thinking what happened.
[4:30] Yeah absolutely it’s probably worth setting the context about how we get the data because I think that’s an important way to substantiate what I’m going to talk about I’ll still make a lot of stuff up don’t get me wrong no took.
Can blind that’s Jason’s line I’m sorry I stole that from me.
[4:46] He was supposed to ask you that and he dropped the ball so he’s yeah he’s a hot mess over there.
[4:52] There you go but no but seriously so as I mention really cool job in terms of my team’s Charter for staying out in the industry and understanding where,
the market is going and we do that Based on data and much of that data actually comes from the Commerce cloud,
platform because we’re in the cloud.
We are able to aggregate all the data that’s flowing through the Platforms in which we manage across,
the world and we bubble that up.
We obviously strip out all the personally identifiable information but that that aggregate becomes the de facto standard of,
happening in retail it’s the amount of billions and billions of Shoppers every tap every swipe,
every click and we get to report on that based on same site sale so we look at it the same way that any retailer would look at,
their business and so we do this all through the year with our shopping index but of course it gets a lot of attention,
during the holiday so that’s that’s my long Preamble Scott to answer your question around what did we see,
over over side or 5 or actually we look at it slightly different so I’ll give you the growth which will be.
[6:14] Somewhat the same if you will apples-to-apples to the Cyber pie but we look at Cyber week so it’s the Tuesday before Thanksgiving all the way through Cyber Monday and what we saw was a really.
Healthy cyber week despite an earlier and earlier holiday season so globally we saw a 36 percent year-over-year growth in the US we saw,
a 29 percent year-over-year growth that’s actually pretty much in line with what we project for the entire,
holiday which people say gosh that seems or some people anyways my without any contacts say mmm,
you know given that we saw 55 percent year-over-year growth in Q3 and we saw 71 percent year-over-year growth in Q2,
that seems like it’s faded off or soften but that’s not that’s not the case I mean,
we were dealing with a really large Baseline and we’re dealing with growth that certainly we haven’t seen during the holidays since gosh.
You know for a long time let’s put it that way.
[7:28] Yeah I think it’s I don’t track the in the international side Internationals a big category but I’m most familiar with the Amazon data but they’ve shown International growing much less than the US what do you think is causing.
That kind of flipping your data.
[7:43] Yeah well it’s primarily due to two things one is.
We’re dealing with you no more than 40 countries across you know 10 or so different categories the way,
slice it so there are emerging countries in there that are still catching on I mean my conversations when it’s not dealing with how do we move from Scrappy to scale them it’s this pandemic
is around digital transformation and some are still believe it or not around the world questioning whether it is important to
go online and lean into that business so part of it is the emerging countries or at least the countries that,
are at a slower or lower base than the US the second piece is we actually you know.
Around the world have a lot of retailers in categories that haven’t been as aggressive online particularly you know the essential categories like gross.
Change rug that sort of thing and so we’re seeing growth globally in those types of segments as well.
[8:56] Frankel did how to so you kind of think it met your expectations basically that’s kind of in line with what you guys were thinking.
[9:03] Yeah so it did in cyber week we did see a softening in Cyber Monday we saw in the globally 18% year-over-year growth and in the u.s. 10%,
but I guess maybe I shouldn’t be or we shouldn’t be as surprised because.
The broader context of the holiday and I referenced it a little bit ago was we saw a pulling forward of demand that Smooths out sales not just earlier in the week.
But also earlier in the season you know our data shows based on our shopping index that for those retailers not named Amazon they saw a 66%.
Year-over-year growth on Prime day so those are a couple of sleepy die not so sleepy as the summer but certainly days in October that you wouldn’t see that search however there was,
halo effect and you know to accentuate that point.
[10:08] The week before cyber weeks or not last week but the week prior as a total we saw in Eighty percent year-over-year growth.
Highlighted by that Friday which saw a 95%.
Year of your growth so retailers have been trying to drum up Demand right since the beginning of October for various reasons.
And it’s working so we saw that manifest itself don’t get me wrong I mean Black Friday Cyber Monday are still.
[10:44] Along with Thanksgiving so let’s say those three are the three biggest.
Days for online but there’s certainly been a smoothing out which impacted Cyber Monday.
[10:56] Interesting and if I kind of parsing the tweets between you and your team I think if I look at it if I look at Black Friday in the US you guys are calling it as being bigger than Cyber Monday and that that’s going to be a first time that’s happened I would imagine right.
[11:10] That is a first-time good can look at you awesome I’m psyched that you’re tracking it that closely you’re exactly right so it’s the first time in the US but the fourth year in a row,
globally so there’s definitely a leveling off and you know we for this year in particular chalked it up to,
the slowing down the ratcheting back of traffic what did you say Jason earlier today around 50%.
Off of physical store traffic this year.
[11:44] Yeah yeah both Shopper track that tracks in you know foot falls in retail stores.
In Verizon that secretly spies on all the Verizon customers including Scott I.
With geolocation Services reported that they saw like about fifty percent of the traffic they saw last year in retail stores.
[12:05] Yeah so that’s certainly.
Contributed to the growth in the u.s. right I mean people aren’t lining up around the door for necessarily doorbusters,
this year and so people turned,
digital and that certainly played out over Black Friday just so you have the numbers globally we saw a 30% increase in the US we saw 23% this is Black Friday
and that equated to for Global twelve point eight billion of online sales and for the I’m sorry.
For Global it was 62.8 excuse me and for us it was 12.8.
[12:50] Wow one of the things that always surprises me is the Black Friday and Cyber Monday are a thing,
internationally you I given that they’re they’re sort of originally tied to a u.s. Centric holiday I feel like Amazon and others have done a really good job of exporting that.
[13:08] They have,
they have it’s starting to really condition the consumers you know it’s something we look at really closely I’ve been calling it discount chicken for quite some time even going back to my
analyst days the idea that retailers have a steady drumbeat try to lure the consumers to buy earlier in the season but,
you know we all have patience and we’re all conditioned to waiting for those deeper discounts on Black Friday,
or Cyber Monday,
and that has really conditioned particularly European consumers to wait and retailers have played into that so the dynamic.
Has been translating certainly internationally for quite some time.
[13:57] Yeah I fear that the promotion chicken is evolving into the boy who cried wolf because.
Uniquely this year we had some very systemic reasons that we would generally did want customers to buy early like most years we say we want customers to buy early because we’re trying to steal the sales from each other,
but / your point the discounts are going to keep getting deeper and deeper until we get to Cyber Monday.
This year we were desperately trying to avoid a spike on Cyber Monday because we’re worried about shipping capacity and inventory levels and things like that so we would generally are telling all the customers
hey this year you really should start your shopping early and put your point there was no reason consumers should believe us because we say that every year.
[14:44] Right right right you know you got to think well first of all you know Prime day because that to be marked the official start of.
The Holiday Inn created a buzz created this halo effect,
but also you know the pandemic right there are three key reasons why consumers were actually compelled unlike any time ever before to actually complete the purchase many would browse right like we see traffic,
increased significantly as we March through the first second and third week of November but the buy button really took hold.
During cyber week but what happened as I mentioned really three things converging right first of all.
[15:25] Consumers were feeling the strain of shipping issues in the spring and so they sensed there.
Will be an issue,
second they were worried about product availability I know about you but I was really psyched to get I guess Scott you’re not as worried about a North Carolina but Jason for you some patio heaters,
just at the end of the summer because none of them are available now and the third you know people are looking out for their health and safety so it took a pen down attic for consumers to actually.
Purchase early because you’re right Jason consumers are smart consumers are patient consumers recognize it is a bit of the boy who cried wolf and.
Retailers were kind of playing into that fear as well we saw for the month of November of the top retailers in the state 61 percent.
[16:21] I sent an email out that use the word shipping and had some sort of verbiage around delays or Byerly
and over cyber week we saw Justin that week 25% of the top retailers made it a key message in their email.
[16:40] Wow so my hypothesis is the Retailer’s talking about it alone would not have been enough to pull sales in but I my hypothesis is the reason sales got partly pulled in is because,
the media talked about it so much and I don’t know if this is well-known or not but you know Scott coin this phrase,
ship again and and the Today Show turns out to be huge Scot Wingo Fanboys so they were talking about it every morning on the show and I wonder if if that.
Those media messages reinforcing the retailer messages landed a little bit with consumers but.
A question I’d be curious about if you have an opinion.
So we have this unusual shape to the holiday this year right Prime day happens in October retailers are promoting earlier the media’s warning customer consumers that they should be shopping early,
and so all that seems to have worked,
we sold more digitally earlier in the holiday than we normally do and while we grew on the on the big Marquee days like the the rate of increase,
slow down so what happens next year right.
Does the shape go back to the traditional shape is that like permanent change a semi-permanent change do you have any if you had any bandwidth to think about what next year looks like.
[18:03] Yeah it’s a great question and it’s a question we’re getting a lot from our,
retail customers it’s like how do you predict the unpredictable you know,
what we’re going to see as we’re looking for it and we’re still crunching numbers and seeing how the holiday plays out you know the first thing to keep in mind is the pandemic,
didn’t really take hold and there wasn’t the Declaration of a pandemic by The Who until the second week of March so you know we’re going to anticipate January and February 1 year anniversary ring.
Online sales to still see that that’s like right it’s just math it’s going to work that way but you know what we see.
Every holiday and I know you can’t equate the pandemic to the holiday is.
[18:56] Q4 particularly November December huge spike in traffic huge spike in sales and it creates a whole new Baseline for digital shopping and it doesn’t.
when you get into January February and March to pre-holiday levels and so we don’t anticipate that when we get into March April and May,
of this year even with you know stores presumably fully being back.
Online and so are they going to grow at the 71% we saw in Q2 and the 55% we saw in Q3 likely know,
actually no but let me be declaring about that but we are going to continue to see
Healthy Growth and you know I see it coming from at least two different areas and Scott and Jason I’d be interested in your perspective on this one is.
Net new digital Shoppers right because that helped the growth over cyber week over cyber week we saw,
a 22 percent growth in unique Shoppers that came off of,
a growth of forty percent in q1 and Q2 so for the first half of the year
we saw a 40% increase in unique Shopper so these are people like my mother-in-law who would never buy groceries online because she’d want to go into the store touch the produce make sure it’s fresh.
[20:22] But because of her pre-existing long can it she’s not going back into the store just going to do it from the health and safety.
Or at least comfort and safety of her of her home right and so that’s not snapping back and that’s going to contribute,
to growth going into next year the second,
area is there’s a whole new set of categories that people wouldn’t have ordinarily bottom line and candidly retailers in those categories weren’t investing heavily in selling online grocery is a great example,
and you know this Jason we’ve talked about this a lot you know we saw it was.
Black Friday just to throw one day in one data point we saw a hundred and twelve percent increase year-over-year
of online sales for food and beverage I mean it didn’t even show up on the chart last year right and so it’s growing and that’s not going to go back and that’s not just gifting you know that’s not just
chocolates or fruit baskets these are,
you know the Staples that we ordinarily would go into the store but are not so I know that doesn’t give you a number and I know I’ve been asked for that a lot and we’re looking through it but overall from a macro perspective,
set a new Baseline knock and a snapback it’s still going to be aggressive throughout the next year.
[21:45] It’s great to hear that data on the unique Shoppers I think that definitely bodes well for the future of digital sets exciting.
There’s a there’s something I call zero friction addiction that until you have one of these zero friction experiences you don’t realize how addictive it is and then,
that going back just feels like you went back you know way way further than you actually really went forward if that makes sense.
[22:05] Yeah wait was that zero addiction friction.
[22:09] Zero friction zero friction addiction.
[22:11] Perfect okay I’m stealing that you better.
[22:14] It’s a ZF a rub if you need to reinforce it it’ll be all over the Today show tomorrow.
[22:19] Apparently yes Hoda already texted it I see it coming through right now.
[22:24] Oh hold on,
she was over for Thanksgiving anyway the it’s like Jason the first time he had the Starbucks mobile experience it was such a game changer for it now if it’s ever down a just
which is a total fit and starts throwing then tea mugs against the wall and he’s like I need my mobile app.
[22:40] Yeah well we should look at his Pantry I have you know I’m not a betting person but I’m guessing he has a stockpile.
[22:47] Let’s dig into some of the categories you saw were there any categories that stuck out is
winners we wouldn’t expect obviously you know we’re the pandemics kind of creeping up on us again and you probably seen some Essentials there but any interesting categories that were either
leaders are laggards.
[23:06] Yeah absolutely and by the way I’ll put a pitch for my colleague who’s the Mastermind behind much of this data Kayla Schwartz you can look up on Twitter she just posted a really cool.
Depiction of this so you can see what it looks like but as I mentioned food and beverage certainly.
And then you know outdoor I would say anything that dealt with health and fun is really the themes that we saw right so outdoor fared really well.
And health and beauty did pretty well also and you know that’s a little counterintuitive people are thinking oh people aren’t going out.
To business occasions or dinner or whatever else but you know where.
The blending of personal and professional lives come together at home and we’re working digitally people want to look half decent,
on their resumes and certainly are making purchases for themselves and Gifts in that category as well.
[24:13] Awesome Rob another.
Segment I guess that’s super interesting to me is mobile so I as you know talk a lot about the mobile Gap and you know Jen this General premise that,
[24:25] increasingly Shoppers are using mobile devices but the conversion rate on mobile devices is lower,
I’m curious if you guys looked at the mobile Gap around holiday and like did we continue to see mobile growing as a share of total traffic and his conversion getting any better.
[24:43] Yeah great question and it was interesting by the way for Thanksgiving.
First of all traffic was down overall quite a bit sales were,
reasonable for sure a little softer than we would have expected but,
actually desktop was quite a winner for traffic and for sales because,
people were looking to that form factor and likely not you know at their on some calls or parents house so they had the access
to their own computer but that was a little bit
of anomaly as we looked at across cyber week so what we found is that over cyber week again the way we look at as Tuesday through Cyber Monday
mobile comprised 71 percent of traffic and 55.
Percent of orders and when you look at desktop we saw 26 percent of traffic and 41,
percent of orders so mobile is holding certainly steady even increasing as a relates to traffic but you know the Stallworth of,
desktop is you know still still healthy again at 41 percent so it’s.
[26:09] Pretty interesting to see certainly as an industry we’ve gotten much better at here we go Scott ready
breaking down that friction so we get the zero friction Addiction on the mobile device I mean really,
we’re it was or has been a really clunky experience right to order stuff online for quite some time but it’s getting easier it’s getting easier because of artificial intelligence and retailers serving up,
the right products above the fall and it’s getting easier certainly because of the Advanced Mobile payment options,
for sure as well so that’s that’s contributing to it as well but what I will say on the conversion side I mean we’re still seeing essentially double,
the effectiveness of conversion meeting on desktop meeting desktop is converting at a two times higher rate than mobile so we still have a way to go.
[27:11] Wrinkle excellent use of zero friction addiction I appreciate that.
Um the the next one is going to be returned again so we’ll talk about that December 26th.
The you guys have any insights into how promotional things were our retailers having to give away the farm to get this growth or they keeping pretty good on on the margins.
[27:34] Yeah you know it’s interesting this was something we track and we have tracked year after year and this year we just saw a steady.
Drum beat it progressively increase the route cyber week but nothing nothing material.
You know and I credit that to and Jason you and I have talked about this before
we typically see an over reaction on Cyber Monday where that has the deepest discounts of not only the weak but of the season,
but we didn’t see that this or not at least dramatically this holiday and part of it was,
retailers were trying to preserve some margin as you reference Scott part of it was retailers saw a really healthy demand and.
Therefore were regulating product availability and didn’t feel as much pressure,
as they have in the past so you don’t get me wrong we’re seeing discount rates at the high 20s on average.
Throughout the year you know holiday season by it wasn’t as dramatic as we’ve seen in the run-up to Cyber Monday as we’ve seen in past years.
[28:57] What I will say though actually if I could add one thing quickly is the vehicle people are using.
For promotions is Shifting right so we saw a healthy.
Increase of email throughout cyber week but we saw Triple digit growth.
In SMS and push notifications which of course is a combination of promotion and then hopefully providing some transparency around,
product availability and shipping status and the other point I’ll make and then I’ll be quiet I promise is that.
Retailers are leaning into what we’re calling the edge or where consumers are shopping on the edge in these third party platforms like social messaging live-streaming even gaming.
And so seeing deals pushed through that means and.
In some cases even exclusive deals trying to create this exclusivity this scarcity trying to drum up demand where consumers are getting inspiration and hanging out with their friends and family.
[30:13] Ya Rabbi like are you guys seeing an actual uptick in the data in terms of like traffic coming from those those activities this year.
[30:23] We are we are seeing an uptick it’s not dramatic or at least dramatic as I would have expected or we’ve seen other parts but traffic and.
Orders around 10% are coming from social and it’s you know material but not.
Significant growth year over year but it’s something that you know I’m talking to retailers about a lot and really advising them not to sleep on it.
And again it’s really two angles here one is thinking about how to use these what I consider to be the next shopping malls where.
Inspiration happens and therefore monetization happens to really push people to their websites but also think about how they can push their brands to these properties so we’re not next year talking as much,
or at least next year talking equally as much about the traffic that’s being generated as.
The orders that are happening actually embedded on these third-party you know what essentially are emerging Commerce platforms.
[31:41] Yeah that’s super interesting because I would remind people like traditional Commerce experiences and you know e-commerce sites.
Really excel at that zero friction addiction right like making it easy to get stuff but where we’ve been struggling is in the whole product Discovery experiences and so.
You know that if live streaming and these you know newest generation of social commerce experiences,
you know if they really catch on there they’re sort of the the digital version of this product Discovery and,
you wouldn’t necessarily expect that to be dominant over holiday right like holiday people tend to know what they’re looking for and and they’re focused on the acquisition so it really the other times of the year when you might expect to see more heavy use of those Discovery tools.
[32:32] That’s a really good point right in the holiday time frame where a bit more surgical in terms of the gift-giving given a list we have in the people we have two by four so that certainly can contribute to that because we have seen sizable growth other times of the year.
[32:47] Yeah well wasn’t robbed that’s fascinating and that’s actually going to be a great place to leave it because we have once again slightly exceeded our allotted time for this special friction-free addiction.
Episode of the show.
[33:02] We appreciate you taking time out of your busy schedule if folks want to track your you and your team’s pontification zon on these topics where should they go.
[33:13] Yeah certainly so we spun out a holiday insights Hub so I encourage the listeners to search for that it is a real-time tracking of
holiday insights and it’s built by the way on Tableau so it’s,
very visual very intuitive during the other times a year I encourage you to check out our shopping index on,
salesforce.com and then of course feel free to follow me always
tweeting the latest at retail Rob Garf sharing our insights our data and for what it’s worth my perspective.
[33:55] Awesome Rob I will put a link to the the holiday Hub in the show notes because it’s obviously the home screen for both Scott and I and until next time happy commencing!
EP247 - Cyber 5 with Adobe
Vivek Pandya is the Senior Digital Insights Manager at Adobe.
Data from Adobe, which uses Adobe Analytics to analyze one trillion visits and 100 million SKUs from 80 of the 100 largest retailers in the U.S., found that consumers spent a whopping $34.4 billion during this year’s Cyber Week, which represents a 20.7 percent year-over-year (YoY) increase. Unsurprisingly, Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday represented the bulk of total spend over the five-day period.
We cover key trends, including changes to holiday behavior due to Covid-19, winners and losers, mobile trends, promotion trends, and omni-channel tactics.
Episode 247 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded live on Tuesday, December 1st, 2020.
Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.
[0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 247 being recorded on Tuesday December 1st 2020 I’m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I’m here with your co-host Scot Wingo.
Scot & Vivek:
[0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners well this is itsgotime this is the most exciting time of the year for everyone in retail e-commerce digital retail payments Commerce whatever we call this.
We’re sitting here it’s Tuesday after Cyber Monday and as usual Jason and I are going to dig into what happened over the Cyber five.
Turkey 5 or the newest name I saw this year was BF CM which I think stands for Black Friday Cyber Monday.
To walk us through some data we are really excited to welcome to the show the vet pandya pandya he is from Adobe where he is the senior digital insights manager the VAC welcome to the show.
Thanks very much for having me.
[1:24] We are thrilled to have you the veck we’re excited to jump into adobe’s Data but before we do can we always like to get a brief.
Sort of a snapshot of our guests background can you give us a little bit of insight into how you came to Adobe and what you do for Adobe.
Scot & Vivek:
[1:43] Sure sure so I’m its.
Try to give you the Abridged version for sure I kind of started in this sort of online space in a sort of digital marketing capacity and I worked with startups and technology companies
especially to kind of manage their campaigns and drive
try momentum there and I think working in Tech sometimes it’s like it’s it’s time dilation I think working in Tech because you then find yourself wanting to kind of explore other Industries because you’re very
fixated on tech companies and then so I found myself all of a sudden working for Gallo in working in the wine space and it was great to be in the sort of cpg industry and it also allowed me to kind of,
move out to California and so that that was absolutely
incredible and then I’ve always been someone who’s kind of drifted from this sort of digital marketing space to more into the data science world because you kind of go from generating
demand and leads and things like that to try to understand how you can Target and ensure that you’re getting the most qualified.
[2:59] Audiences to do what the organization needs to have happened so
then when I got more into this data space I found myself really enjoying visualizing data providing insights and
that’s what brought me to Adobe with Adobe Digital insights we’re very focused on providing
insights that can kind of size out the holiday season like we’ll be talking about and and provide insights across a lot of different topics so that’s essentially how made it to Adobe and how I’m working in this space.
[3:30] Awesome we’re glad you did and then as a reminder for our listeners about the Adobe data set you you are one of the Premier analytics packages that’s used by eCommerce sites
and you get to aggregate all the data from all the clients that use that analytics package and summarize that is that do I have that right.
Scot & Vivek:
[3:52] That’s exactly right so yeah we have.
80 of the top hundred online us retailers we have a trillion visit a hundreds and millions of products use so when you bring that all together you’re able to get some really interesting cool,
aggregate insights about the data history and how it’s changing.
[4:13] Cool it’s lesser start at the top maybe take us through what you guys saw over the last five days.
[4:20] So what we saw was in some ways what we were expecting and in other ways it kind of very but we essentially saw about a hundred six billion dollars drive-through from,
season today essentially from November
to where we are you know just post Cyber Monday and I know you guys have been following this in terms of how these Trends this early pricing how all that would kind of come into play and for us that was also.
Very important to size out and understand the trends and also the election was also something that happened in case you forgot and so that was that was an area that we were curious to see how that would
sort of interact with retail spending.
And so as we got closer into Thanksgiving week we saw about thirty four billion dollars kind of get realized over,
both Thanksgiving Black Friday Cyber Monday and some of the days in between so we were able to kind of chart and see some of the early spending,
that was kind of being kicked up a post-election and then we saw a lot of early surging before we got into Thanksgiving week and then we saw these these largely dominant days continue to stay dominant.
And you know we had.
Ten point eight billion dollars come yesterday on Cyber Monday so it’s been very interesting for us to see what things sort of panned out and which ones deviated for what we expected.
[5:50] Yeah and if we kind of look at your over your Trends if you look at that kind of I don’t know when you start but let’s say November first just to before Thanksgiving.
Um maybe maybe we looked at how that grew versus last year and then look at Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday what what did that look like from a year of your shorts.
So looking at you know we we had a sort of prediction of 33% for the season.
We that sort of initial prediction with how the week is gone with,
we’ve adjusted it a little bit to 30% but when we look at how this this particular period grew from November 1st to start on Monday that was right around 27% 27.7 so that’s that’s again.
Large chunk of growth coming in into the earlier month but we still anticipate some growth that gets us to our prediction for the entire season.
Yeah it seems like you guys in a lot of other data providers kind of agree that Cyber Monday was was a little bit of a,
I guess I’ll let down in that it grew significantly slower than that kind of Benchmark 30% is that you guys saw.
[7:01] It’s interesting because like the the momentum of Cyber Monday and it,
being the biggest day of the year is notable and it can’t be lost on us that it was able to still surge at ten point eight billion dollars but we when we look at
Cyber Monday Thanksgiving and even Black Friday.
What we what we see is them coming down into the sort of lower range of our estimates and we tribute a bit of that to some of the early surging that happened.
The weekend before Thanksgiving week because I know
with early discounts there was a lot of question like how will things look pretty level all throughout all the weeks and and we’ll Cyber Monday and Black Friday or they just not a thing.
[7:48] And what we saw was about 5 to 10% discounts coming into the month and that was enough to
drive a little bit of interest in purchasing but there was still a bit of slower growth happening because of the election and,
and people waiting for an outcome in announcement from the election.
And then once it once we had that outcome it started kind of falling back in line with our predictions and then the weekend before Thanksgiving week we saw the discounts go from
five to ten percent to 22
25% so that sort of that sort of increase and then a little more room to get down to 20 to 30 percent happen once we got into the,
Black Friday and Cyber Monday the day so
you end up seeing this how the story emerge of how some of that volume got a bit more distributed across the rest of the days.
[8:41] Got it and I’m not sure if you’re aware but two very handsome podcasters came up with this ship again and phrase do you think,
and I know this hard in the data but have you seen anything that that lends that that is the thing or that that may be caused some of this earlier activity.
Yeah I’m familiar with the phrase for sure it’s a it’s one of those things where I know it was real concern it’s a real concern I think it continues to be a concern and you guys were right to kind of call out that the
potential impact as you were modeling it out but it’s it’s one of those things where,
different size retailers have experienced different surges coming into this period so I imagine that some of that early weekend spending before they got into Thanksgiving.
Wheat probably is what they had intended to sort of mitigate this volume and that’s probably helped them Bank in more days.
And kind of distribute it more and again we talked about clicking collects and backs an area that’s also helping.
Helping manage this shipping see potential situation and what we saw there with it being up 52 percent on Black Friday year-over-year.
All that is helping and combination I think to sort of manage that situation but I think it potentially has.
[10:00] Even more impact getting into December and potentially being more of an issue there when.
There’s just this desire I think with with everything that’s happening November it’s been pretty compressed.
There’s an understanding that this counts are going to continue so then the question is how much will things pick back up and
drive up to new levels of growth as we get closer to Christmas and that’s where I think it could continue to be an issue because I ultimately think that
but for now they’ve been somewhat successful in managing that the volumes and they’ve learnt a lot from the earlier months of the pandemic.
And so I would say that it’s not they’re not completely out of the woods yet in terms of it being a significant thing that they have to manage but I think having their discounts situated and driving them down further,
before we got even into Thanksgiving was the right move.
[10:59] Interesting so if you look at it on the whole obviously that these big five Marquis days kind of slightly underperformed or at least where the bottom end of the the forecast is your hypothesis.
There’s less demand than you thought and therefore it sounds like you did downgrade your forecast slightly or do you feel like.
Just some of those sales got pulled in earlier and therefore the kind of Peaks are are leveling out.
Scot & Vivek:
[11:31] You know I definitely think there was a decent amount level of front loading and pulling in some of these discounting ‘s
earlier because that’s where we start to see the sort of levels of surging we saw on Sunday that that kind of really took us by surprise and then it but then we really also had a sense that,
Black Friday Cyber Monday Thanksgiving these would continue to be big days because from we also you know have our own survey research that we were asking.
Consumers about these days and.
They very much feel that yes we know there are discounts happening throughout the season but we definitely feel that we’re going to get the best pricing and best deal
on Black Friday and Cyber Monday so that kept us very much conscious of the fact that those could still be pretty strong and they were so it’s all the say,
apart on the Retailer’s to drive and move some of that momentum earlier but also that sort of tug and pull of the consumers being like well we have a little bit of tradition and inertia,
and a perception of these days and we’re planning on spending on them too so that all got to manage during this period.
[12:45] Got it and then I imagine to some extent some of the deceleration on these biggest days has to also just be the law of large numbers right like it it it gets increasingly hard to grow as fast as the numbers get bigger and bigger.
Scot & Vivek:
[13:00] That’s right it’s where we’re coming off of these bigger bases and they are especially when there is this real concerted effort to
kind of manage and mitigate the volume that comes through those days you’re going to see a that that sort of
that drive to step to another level percentage-wise is going to be tougher,
and then with these tactics being employed it’s going to it’s going to dull some of these Peaks a little bit but again it’s still that the consumers are you know in the driver’s seat here and,
and on their schedule is when things are happening so it’s really going to its that’s really why we saw some these big days still continue to be super strong.
[13:43] Yep and just to put things in perspective a little bit if I’m going from memory so correct me if I have this wrong but Cyber Monday last year was about like nine point four billion right.
Scot & Vivek:
[13:53] That’s right yep 9.4.
[13:54] And so at that point that would have been the biggest single-day of e-commerce sales in the US ever and then this year
we surpass 9.4 on Friday so I Black Friday actually set the new record and then we surpassed it even further yesterday right so we two days this year surpassed any day in the entire history of e-commerce in the US.
Scot & Vivek:
[14:18] So Cybermen assignment one day definitely so we’re not Black Friday was close it just got it nine billion so it was just a bit under but it was it was it was pretty
pretty significant in terms of getting to that scale and becoming in that way the second largest day at that.
Yeah and if I if I’m reading the data right Black Friday increased about called 22% with rounding and Cyber Monday was 15 so.
If that keeps up the lines will cross eventually right it’s yeah it’s one of those one of those areas where it’s like it’s.
It’s that scale and those percentages that can kind of.
Mitigate and manage to move it to this overall season percentage that will aiming for.
[15:04] Interesting how about art let’s peel the onion a bit and go into categories any any categories over form the models any any kind of underperformers.
So with Black Friday we saw different categories surging so Electronics and appliances and toys and then when we
[15:27] went deeper we would see things like board games and video games things that
are keeping people occupied and then when we were coming into the week we saw groceries kind of reach early pandemic Global because
it was probably both stocking up again because the case is rising and then people trying to do Thanksgiving meals but try to see if they could avoid going to the grocery stores.
[15:50] Anderson how about,
I’ve noticed since weren’t categories the seems like the the top sellers are the new consoles but there’s not enough Supply out there so.
Does that show up in the data there’s that one of the things driving Electronics.
It’s definitely a type of high demand product that has these inflection periods and and they are continued,
they’re moving in waves in terms of supply and
too quick you know uptick in people purchasing them so that moves pretty quickly the more consistent
ones that stay up is the video games the accessories and just the larger category takes a boost as a result of these two major console releases happening within the course of a week.
[16:39] I imagine also one of the things that’s a challenge for me and looking at this year’s data is I think the food thing really complicates matters because.
Historically there was very little food e-commerce like not very much grocery was online and so obviously as a result of the pandemic tons of people learned how to shop for groceries online and.
Many of those people may have done their weekly grocery shop over the Cyber 5.
It wasn’t necessarily tied to any holiday spending but that was a baseline of digital spending that didn’t exist in previous years in does exist this year and then to be honest it’s exacerbated.
Because so many restaurants are closed grocery spending is at an all-time high because they have a higher percentage of calories are coming from grocery store so that feels like.
That’s that’s an extra little undercurrent pushing some of these numbers up this year.
Scot & Vivek:
[17:32] Yeah I would agree with that that that does you know that that does kind of add in a sort of additive level of it
and what I would say is that we saw that the grocery surges were happening a little more before Thanksgiving week so while the magnitude was pretty high then it’s sort of trended back down as we got into the major days so it’s,
it’s definitely a factor but it definitely got more limited as the week kind of War.
and then let’s pivot to one of my favorite topics mobile so his one of the topics that we talk about a lot on the show is what I call the mobile Gap and it’s not specific to holiday but just this General premise that.
In increasingly high percentage of All Digital traffic is coming from mobile devices but in general the conversion rate on mobile devices is meaningfully less than it was on desktop devices and so you kind of have this Gap now
historically during holiday.
The conversion rate for mobile improved slightly and the percentage of traffic from mobile devices is even higher so with that background what did mobile look like for this holiday was there there any interesting Trends there.
Scot & Vivek:
[18:45] It really
lived up to our expectations because we had imagined about 37 to 40 percent of total e-commerce sales driving through smartphones.
And that’s exactly what happened when we saw about 41.1% drive-thru in in that period and
I would say it’s really kind of a testament to the retailers and what they’re trying to do in terms of frictionless payment and making
understanding that smartphones are the sort of dominant device even though people are in their home and you know you would imagine maybe laptop share would increase because
you know you can pull out your laptop and and really,
you know explore and have a larger navigation screen and things like that but it seems like the just a comfortability and the mobile first.
Kind of approach that consumers have taken really has soared through the year and continues to have an outsized impact when we look in the holiday season.
So pretty pretty staggering increase there for sure.
[19:53] Got it and it sounds like this mobile Gap I talk about still exists because you’re saying 41.1% of sales were mobile I’m assuming you’re going to tell me way more than half of all traffic was mobile.
Scot & Vivek:
[20:05] That’s right yes and what more visits I yeah and exactly some of these trends that you mentioning just these larger
order values for associated with laptops and desktops versus the small ones that I think those are just going to continue to incrementally we’re just going to have
have consumers just get more and more comfortable so they can continue to take up
versus just the sort of macro I’m ready to buy a massive you know High ticket item just quickly on the phone I think there’s a little more consideration there and some of those are still kind of being piped through on laptops.
[20:40] Interesting and then one thing that I’ve seen some conflicting data about I’d be curious if you have seen anything so traditionally there certain occasions that.
Increasingly be mobile right so the traffic you see the eCommerce sites on actual Thanksgiving on Thursday.
Tends to be disproportionately mobile and intuitively that makes sense right because people are at home with family and if they’re if they’re doing anything they’re jumping on their phone they’re not like excusing themselves from their guests and opening up a laptop.
But I’ve heard a hypothesis that this year because we’re all alone and we’re you know basically like the internet is our dominant form of entertainment that it actually.
Skewed things slightly more to desktop than we would ordinarily see and I’m curious if that if you guys see that Trend in the Adobe data set or.
Or have you can debunk that myth.
Scot & Vivek:
[21:37] Yeah I would say that we would we definitely saw that with Thanksgiving Day obviously experienced a lot of disruption in terms of this year and what what it could done but we still saw a strong level of volume and and mobile Commerce happening that that makes me think that
regardless of some of these Trends it’s just this bigger trend of.
People just being so comfortable with smartphones now that it’s not as as in
impervious or actually the opposite of impervious but it’s it’s not a it’s more resilient to some of these trends of we’re okay well now this is changed so now I’m going to go,
get a laptop or a desktop and get away from my phone I think we still saw a lot of momentum happening through smartphones on Thanksgiving day and it continued through Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
[22:30] Pickle the.
Do you guys have any so you mentioned that we kind of hit a promotional kind of peak around Black Friday and that got consumers really activated.
You guys track that in any kind of data oriented way that.
Another way of another thing I’m trying to get at is sometimes retailers will have a great sales Christmas but it will totally blow margin because to get the great sales Christmas they had to give away too much do you have any.
Any color on that.
I would say that for us you know we did we have this what we call our online pricing and decks that’s built into our larger digital economy initiative.
And so we’re tracking prices year-round we saw the big drops in apparel prices happen in in March and April and some of these things we can track in line with,
the CPI and at quite a frequent level of rapidity and then when we look at the holiday season prices,
we’re really tracking to see how much they’ll kind of stay down and again I mentioned this because we’ve been tracking them
all year round so we got to see what prices look like in October and I think there was this kind of rush to say okay.
[23:46] Prime days happening holiday season started right now and I would say that what we saw was certain retailers to draw you know saw a bit of a halo effect of.
Of prime Dade we saw prices come down within the range of five to ten percent but then they started to tick back up after we got out of the Prime day two days and then it kind of
against sort of slowly dropped.
And then as I mentioned on that Sunday coming into Thanksgiving week it just it took a much more significant drop and so,
when you think about it in those terms we imagine they’ll be
it’s sort of this weakening of the discounts kind of as the demand scales as we get closer to Christmas so it’s not to say oh it’s going to be this level of discounting.
All Season round so you know that the consumers have nothing to be concerned about in terms of pricing which is really important to them we essentially think that they were able this
kick into a different gear for discounts and it’ll start to scale up because ultimately they do want to preserve their margins and.
Long also providing good pricing and competitive options for consumers.
[25:03] Another topic that’s really interesting to me is the whole omni-channel aspect like we’ve talked a lot on the podcast about ship again and obviously and it seems it would seem to me one of the
the best ways to mitigate limited capacity from the shipping carriers is to sell the store inventory and have customers come and get it
via curbside pickup or click and collect or whatever the case is I know you guys are able to see the orders that are click and collect versus ship to home any industry interesting trends.
Around holiday utilization of curbside pickup.
Scot & Vivek:
[25:41] Absolutely so they are in a place where
test scaling this channel in a way where they’re able to even direct consumers we’re okay maybe but this may be the supply chain doesn’t support direct shipping so let’s let’s push them and think about curbside pickup quickly so we started to see.
Friday scale up bow piss or click and collect orders by 52 percent year-over-year it’s about 30% yesterday on Cyber Monday and what we expect is as.
The discounts weekend and we get closer into December and we’re we are in December sorry but as we get to Christmas.
There’s going to be this this focus on how do I get this product.
And get the best pricing and not get have my discounts completely nullified by my shipping costs so then they’ll be heavy utilization there so we we actually expect it to be the dominant,
mode of fulfillment about a week out from Christmas
so that it’s going to be a huge driver for these larger retailers as it has been this week in terms of helping them.
Absorb a lot of volume and say yes we have this product because and you just have to go pick it up.
[26:57] Cool one what kind of curveball here what what’s when you re looking at the data what just kind of jumped out at you as the biggest surprise.
I think what we were pretty struck by was just the level of.
The growth coming out of the main days while still maintaining a lot of volume coming out of the
earlier days because I think we were thinking about it in a little bit of binary terms which is its you know this all could be a little bit of you know.
Just just talk around okay it’s a it’s a cyber month
so you know everything you know I’ve seen black Fridays canceled its at certain places being written up and
what it was striking for us to see is know that they are they are holding holding their ground is as as tentpole days
but again on some of these other days the surging that was happening for for retailers who offer both Opus and,
who have who have made these inroads into early pricing and were able to deliver on some of that early pricing promise
they were able to scale on those days as well so you almost end up not with that sort of binary outcome but almost both Things become a little true so that was that was
it was it was really interesting for us to chart that.
[28:20] Very interesting you know one other question occurred to me.
Any insights about where what the big traffic sources were for for Holiday like I imagine there’s a lot more organic traffic on holiday than usual or a lot of traffic driven by email but I’m curious.
Like do we see a spike in Social we hear a lot about live streaming is that you know meaningful contributor what what’s bringing people to e-commerce websites for holiday.
Scot & Vivek:
[28:48] We’ve seen decent increases for social research for about a 17% increase for Cyber Monday and through Thanksgiving so
it’s one of those areas where it’s a category that we’ve seen traffic come through and we’ve always thought about how it operates as a channel for conversion versus awareness and then
fueling people to come through other modes so your
the organic search and paid search have definitely been drivers but then you the display efficiency right now is pretty staggering so that’s also been able to help,
I drive a lot of volume through for all these retailers.
[29:27] I’m glad to hear it.
We’ll listen to this has been a fascinating conversation but it has happened again we’ve run out of our allotted time for the special cyber five show I certainly appreciate you taking time out of what I know is one of your busiest days of the year to come talk with us.
As always if people have questions or comments they can feel free to leave us a note on Twitter or Facebook page.
And as always if you found value in the show we sure would love it if you jump on iTunes and give us that five star review.
Scot & Vivek:
[29:57] Thanks for your folks want to see your pontificate ins and data visualizations where should they go.
Absolutely thanks so much guys I really appreciate it and yeah I I’m pretty active on my LinkedIn
so if you just search Vivek pandya or Adobe on LinkedIn you should find me.
[30:21] We will put it in the show notes and thanks everyone for listening hope you had a wonderful holiday and until next time happy e-commercing.