The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News

Join hosts Jason “Retailgeek” Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Founder and Executive Chairman of Channel Advisor, as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.
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Dec 18, 2017

EP110 - Holiday 17 Hot Take with Rob Garf of

Rob Garf (@retailrobgarf), is the VP of Industry Strategy and insights at Salesforce Commerce Cloud.  His team has access to insights from all the Salesforce Commerce Cloud clients (formerly Demandware).  We have a broad ranging conversation about what he's seeing this holiday season and trends he expects for next year.

You can read more about his teams insights here:

Salesforce Reveals Black Friday Was the Busiest Digital Shopping Day of the Holiday Season

Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.

Episode 110 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on November 30th 2017.

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, SVP Commerce & Content at Razorfish, and Scot Wingo, Founder and Executive Chairman of Channel Advisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

New beta feature - Google Automated Transcription of the show


[0:25] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 110 being recorded on Thursday November 30th 2017 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo.

Scot & Rob:
[0:40] Hey Jason and a welcome back Jason and Scott show listeners.
Jason R series that is a hot take on holiday 17 continues here in episode 110 we're excited to have the first time to the show someone you and I've known both for a long time and I've been trying to get on the show and we finally made it work,
Rob Garf rub is the VP of Industry strategy and insights at Salesforce Commerce Cloud welcome to the show Rob.

[1:06] Thanks gentlemen it's great to be here I feel honored to be amongst digital Commerce loyalty I feel like I'm obliged to say first time long time.

[1:17] Appreciate it you know one thing we always like to do on this show is give listeners a little bit of context about how you came into your your control,
I'm in what what the scope of the current role is so I know,
like ourselves I know you've been kicking around the industry for a little while can you you talk to us about your career matriculation and what you're doing at Salesforce today.

Scot & Rob:
[1:44] Yeah yeah absolutely literally retail is in my blood my father actually was at a supply chain a bunch of different retailers around the country when I was growing up and I didn't have any,
prettiest aspirations of getting into retail but I did grow up working in his distribution centers and working in some stores at.
Ricky work for in retailers that he worked for and really really cut my teeth in a genuine way in headquarters,
right around 99 2004 Lids the specialty hat retailer,
where I live Ecommerce and at the time we're doing some really fun things like buy online pickup store we had an endless aisle app we didn't know,
really what we're doing and put it together you know I shoestring budget but it worked and it was a lot of fun,
and tell you guys probably are the only ones on the show that will remember that we ran into world back almost 20 years ago of course they're long gone as a,
e-commerce platform but anyways from there.
Certainly continue to kick around was industry analysts at AMR research leaving retail practice moved to lead retail strategy to IBM when I was in fortunate to land at demandware.
Which took me about 5 years in when we got Acquired and summer 2016 by Salesforce,
what is known as the Commerce cloud my role it's really fun I get to kind of put all the hats on that I've worn over the last 20 25 years and I lead a team called Industries for insights and really.

[3:22] In short it's it's our job to stay in the market,
understand where the industry's going would you that primarily through research and then we turn that back over to the industry,
our customers and we use that to better understand where we should bring our company products so it's been a lot of fun over last coming up on 7 years for the last year-and-a-half as part of Salesforce.

[3:44] Very cool and then another one of the reasons you wanted to get you into this series is you guys have been releasing some holiday data and I don't I don't recall you doing much of that,
demandware tell us about what's going on there and for listeners that don't know let's let's kind of help them understand the scope of the day that you guys would have and kind of where it comes from.

[4:06] Sure yeah I think that's going to start some good contacts on the conversation I'm sure we're about to have so even wear a cloud platform that enables retailers and Brands to connect,
to their consumers across the Myriad of different channels whether that's personally online or through mobile store.
Social even the increasingly iot invoice devices we collect a lot of data in fact on a monthly basis we have 500 million Shoppers Traverse City.
Rousey ultimately buying,
AR platform across around 3000 sites and not representing retailers in 53 country so we take that information we aggregated up and very thoughtful and secure way and it really helps us,
gauge meter Digital Trends and then again we as part of our perky turn that back over or consumers help them Benchmark I'm sorry.
Back over to our customers retail Brands and allows them to better Benchmark the business and then broadly it allows us to see you know where where the industry's going what are some of the major Trends and we've been doing,
what are we reporting for some time but we really double down on the holiday this year to turn it into some interesting insights as to what we predict and then be what we're seeing.

[5:27] Cool so if we if we kind of start at 30,000 ft view did you have any forecast for holiday or you're not in the forecast visiting just kind of looking at insights.
Yeah so week we had some predictions based on the data from the platform,
what we see in the past quarter past years and we also did some primary research as well,
so yes and I get right into it tell him which I talk to you about kind of what we saw a little bit and get back yeah,
you know like how did you guys did you think holiday would be 15% that came in at 20 and then you have any other kind of macro stuff and we'll get into some of the individual days in a minute but the the big picture what do you think.

[6:09] The big picture yeah so you know back in September October we release them prediction information or three key points that we among many others that we hold in on and in one piece was,
wow discounts were going to be abundance as they normally are creeping earlier and earlier in the year we felt like the holiday season would smooth out,
a bit in terms of actual demand and that's in fact what we saw by the end of.
Monday Cyber Monday only 35% of digital shopping was completely,
and so there's still a lot of Runway to go there the second piece that we saw is that 40% of.
Statically Millennials will be doing a lot of research and Discovery through voice assistance in.
Alexis in the world in the Google homes and Sirius of the world and we don't have data yet to back it up.
Quantitatively button talking to our customers there they're definitely testing and.
Playing with poison in Lexington circular craving some skills around shipping notifications and,
order status which I think is a nice step forward on the convenience play of the of the three.
Last one was in this really started last year.

[7:38] Black Friday becoming more and more of a digital day you know we score screw up all of us here Scott Jason you know with.
Black Friday more of a store based way doorbusters and getting out of the,
Thanksgiving craziness at family and getting some the stores and works we're seeing a real uptick both and we predicted and we in fact saw it as a really big,
really big digital day as well so I can dive in all of this in particular but those are some of the variations Rahsaan and how they kind of played out over the last.
789 days I would say.

[8:15] Awesome but just want to get an idea of how Granny or the data use you see is your the the actual platform that that all these retailers are are using for their, so I'm assuming you get,
pretty granular data so you you mentioned for example discounting like are you are you able to to see the actual sort of.

[8:35] Is was pricing that that is offered by your customers and are you guys sharing any data about like how promotional this holiday.

[8:44] Season has been versus past holiday season.

Scot & Rob:
[8:47] Yeah yeah absolutely so you know one of the things we saw as I mentioned discounts starting earlier and earlier we're calling it.
You know game of discount chicken right it's like the retailers are moving it more and more,
towards the beginning of November opening hoping that the consumers will by and by the way though we all know,
what happened but in terms of the rates and yeah we're seeing across the,
the Cyber week starting on the Tuesday 2 days before American Thanksgiving and then going through through Cyber Monday,
we saw an average at 28%.
Discount rate so there's some really nice discounts really teaching on Cyber Monday will see a little bit of a wall and then once again we anticipate another Spike,
around December 11th and for few days further when,
consumers are starting to feel the crunch of the shipping window starting to close and retailers taking advantage of that kind of emotional oh gosh I need to get it now or I'm not going to be able to get that deliver to my doorstep.
I'll put the other interesting part if I could be on just discounts is what we saw a round free shipping.
And so across the week as I defined a moment ago we saw 84% of orders,
that were free shipping in fact on Cyber Monday alone it actually spiked up and was the highest 89% so in what was seen as a really nice to have in past years really the expectations the consumer is.

[10:30] We want it free or not at all and so as a consumer if you're on and listening,
definitely look for those free shipping and if your retailer you got to get the game if you're not already.

[10:44] Yeah yeah and I did just maybe put that in a little bit of context comes Gore would say that that year-round about 65% of all e-commerce sales are with free shipping so when you see a spike up to 85 to almost 90% that's,
a version of a promotion that retailers are running and it just turns out free shipping is the most effective promotion you can run if you if you don't already offer it because,
it seems like consumers are really weary to make any purchases that that where they have to pay for shipping.

Scot & Rob:
[11:16] Yeah that's right and that's why I talked about in the context of.
Discount since you know a lot of our customers are in the luxury and apparel space where they want to try to us from Apperception perspective hold onto price Integrity but free shipping is a nice way as you mention to essentially give,
it total cost of ownership if you will discounts on getting that a product you on.

[11:39] For sure you also mentioned Black Friday becoming a little bit more of a digital holiday and that that's only seems like a trend that we've seen as well,
are you starting to see you mention that a lot of deals are peaking on Cyber Monday are you starting to see a spike of.
Online deals on Black Friday as well or do you feel like like as a consumer you're going to get better deals on Monday then you can get on Friday.

Scot & Rob:
[12:03] Yeah I mean it's it's just to get really deep we saw a 27% discount rates on Black Friday compared to 29% on Cyber Monday.

[12:16] Negative Outlets closed right but generally speaking when I step back we're seeing that,
deals have really in demand in fact has been smooth over across,
the seven days of cyber week where in the past it was for consumers got to get the deal on Friday in the store or Monday.
I'm online and I'm finding both based on a research and helping a sample size of one and doing a bit of shopping myself is that retailers are becoming a lot more transparent about the length.

[12:53] In the duration of their promotions and there's not as much of a.
Gosh I got to get it on Friday or I'm going to lose out so yeah I know that's my roundabout way of saying there's a spike Cyber Monday at 29%.
We see 27% but overall we're seeing deal smooth out through the entire week.

[13:17] Yeah that that is interesting that is that's one of the challenges with promotions right is that the promotions are going to be most effective,
if there's almost some scarcity to them like if consumers believe that that deal is going to end on Friday and that's the best deal I'm ever going to get if.
It we're promoting stuff on Friday and all the consumers have a a real belief that there's going to be an even better deal on Monday then the.
Promotions tendon not have the desired effect into your point in the old world the consumer attended the only know what we tell them right so we said hey big sale on Friday that's the only information the consumer has not had but today.
The consumer knows everything and they have.
Perfect transparency and oh by the way there's probably 50 websites that are designed to telling them what what deals are the best each day and what did the historical,
best time to buy all these products are so it's hard to hard to get away with any of those those promotional games anymore.

Scot & Rob:
[14:13] It's really good point I think it's a really good point in the fact that.
Retail for finally listening you know what I mean in terms of their acknowledging that consumers have a lot more control in Access than ever before and why not be a little bit more,
transparent around the pricing in motion so that while you are giving a little bit away on the scarcity side you're giving a little bit more away saying I don't.
Each go to another retailer cuz I think I missed that window right.

[14:44] Put it makes me I know Salesforce is really big on the AI in it you guys call York or a Einstein if you guys do any exploration of kind of could you plug that in there and try to have the AI out smart smart the consumers on this whole,
pricing game of chicken thing,
yes and we are doing that in fact we actually have some interesting data around artificial intelligence and how that has actually influenced a lot of the,
the sales when it comes down to it so what we found across again these sample set that we have is that.

[15:21] And I'll pick on Black Friday so on Black Friday 6%,
Shoppers engage or clicked on a product recommendation that was powered by artificial intelligence so that recommendation was based on the shopping Behavior.
Either a known consumer in the various digital profile and preferences that have been accumulated or an unknown based on the clicks that.
They did either on-site or off-site and while it was only 6% its Rove 32%,
of the revenue so huge impact when retailers can turn this data into intelligence and get it in front of the consumers in a meaningful way throughout the journey.

[16:14] That that's fascinating I'm always curious like how how are you defining artificial intelligence for the recommendation and in that case cuz it you know obviously you know there's there's multiple definitions of artificial intelligence but I have a feeling all the the vendors that are in the the Salesforce Commerce Cloud link exchange that have been doing,
recommendations for for 5 or 10 years would probably call their engines artificial intelligence wouldn't they are.

Scot & Rob:
[16:40] Yeah they likely will and so yeah we're at the very core it's.
From machine learning that is taking in all of the data that's,
being generated on the platform by that retailer and allowing the algorithm to continually learn and in an automated way.
Dr. Relevant interaction LG interesting part is that,
artificial intelligence Einstein is both making the merchant in marketer the retailer smarter so they're just getting more fishing around planning,
their pricing in there but then it's also Autumn eating a lot of manual rules-based type of Assortment,
that the consumer will interact with on the site cool,
yes it's need to see you and you're always Acquisitions talk about synergies sounds like there's already a rich set of capabilities over on the sales for side that you guys are tapping into.

[17:41] For sure yeah I mean particularly on the Einstein front given the fact that on this across across the entire company so yet while we have a date,
with in Commerce Cloud we are we are definitely leveraging,
all of the Innovation that's happening back at San Francisco from machine learning to visual,
intelligence to voice intelligence to natural language processing so it's it is really exciting where as we came,
India the Acquisitions with some pretty cool.

[18:20] Artificial intelligence were able to now look to our colleagues and really amp it up quite a bit and again. The fun part about this is It's really baked into the plan.
So it snow in the same console that a marching will do their promotions in their assortments and figuring out the promotional calendar so they don't have to talk between different screen so you know going back to data.
It's really showing while you know small,
portion of consumers are coming across these product recommendations and stay clicking on then it's driving a lot of Revenue and I assume at some point we'll talk about mobile but,
in a very small form factor world that we're living in now making sure where you might have one if two products that are made available getting those right ones,
in front of the consumer makes all the difference in the world yeah real estate is definitely the premium,
just want to talk about mobile one quick thing that you just kind of made me think about so early are you talking about skills being kind of a prediction you guys as part of the platform can you just kind of turn on for a new beer Merchants an Alexa skill or or.

[19:36] You know you're watching what's happening there before you do something like that.

[19:40] Yeah so you know Boyce in general is something we're looking at our customers given our open platform already testing some out there finding it just the way they're not necessarily seeing.
You're clicking the bottle like it's not really clicking or tapping are you but you know having to buy happen but it's more on some of the purple,
research Discovery or on the other side service but that's more happening for your partners or independently given again are open platform our customers are able to innovate and extend vrep eyes,
Darius didn't ask Dex like order and customer and price and,
so on and so forth I figured I would keep your interest though given I know it's a Hot Topic around these parts so obviously what you're seeing on The Voice side it's typically around this holiday anything.
Pop up for you and your discussions,
I always check the specials that the Amazon has there and just interesting to see what they're choosing to push that way I think.
Retailers that are doing it our way out on the Edge at this point we haven't heard a ton Jason have you heard anything.

[20:53] In general I think even though the most dominant voice players would say nobody really expects voice to be a primary interface for Commerce I mean there's there's just a bunch of.
Deficiencies like most things you buy have a bunch of variance you pick a color and a size and potentially a brand and like,
getting interrogated for all of those details to place a a Commerce order via voice.

[21:16] Actually isn't a super elegant experience so while they're there certain products that lend themselves to voice Commerce and there certainly are people that are engaging in voice Commerce.

[21:26] It's not like oh man that's the better user interface in the whole world is going to shift to voice.
For Commerce I think it's really obvious that voice is going to be a major you user interface overall and I think we're going to see voice being used a lot too.
Manage and modify order so you know once you start buying all your groceries online for example and you have an auto replenishment order.
You probably using voice to say hey I'm going to Grandma's for Thanksgiving you know let's cancel this week's grocery order or hey I need to make a pumpkin pie for Thanksgiving,
let's let's add these ingredients to my.

[22:04] My normal list but I really think that's going to be the the primary role of a voice in Commerce more so than it is.

[22:15] Product Discovery or you know first time order types.

Scot & Rob:
[22:19] So it's super interesting to me is incorporating voice for on-site search right so you're still looking at,
the screen but you're able to search using voice and then layering on top artificial intelligence or putting artificial it's on the bottom whichever way you want to look at it architectural e in any case but being able to really help.
Again really cut down the time between inspiration and ultimately getting to the product that.
The customer wants but I hear what you're saying in terms of perhaps you know on site to eat navigation versus doing it by.
Talking to a device saying I want this product that I've never seen before.

[23:02] And I think the use case you mentioned makes all the sense in the world in particularly on mobile we already see you like that voice as a user interface in Mobile has huge adoption in China are ready and so I think that's inevitable.
Here and in there are some fascinating nuances that happened there right because when customers type into our search box with a keyboard.
We've taught them all how to type to how to do keyword searches right so two people type the words that they think.

[23:34] Are are most likely to come up with that results but when people speak to a voice interface they tend to speak in full sentences and so what's what's interesting is.
There's voice search as we get 10 to have a lot more contacts.
Then that type searches and that actually enables us to give more relevant results.
Which is which is interesting but you do have to think about your indexing and your your if your you know a content creator on this product detail Pages you need to think about your SEO strategies and things differently when a meaningful percentage of your.

[24:08] Your customers are are searching via voice so I would certainly agree with that and I think.

[24:13] I'm not sure that that's a huge piece of the market this year but I would suspect by next year.

[24:19] It's a much bigger part I guess weather thing that slightly interesting is to the extent that you are going to shop via voice obviously Alexis the dominant voice platform out there.
And you know they predominantly want you to buy from from Amazon although you know they recently made an announcement of a partnership with.

[24:36] Best Buy to enable you to do Commerce through Best Buy.

[24:41] You know that you have to add a few extra words to that search but what's interesting is so everyone that wants to compete with Amazon has the problem of not having a product catalog like Amazon has and not having all the sales data that Amazon has to help.

[24:54] Sort of determine what what brand you probably want when you ask for batteries and so we're seeing like Google in particular.
Go out and start to do these Partnerships with retailers where the retailers are sharing their first party data with Google to make search more more context really relevant on.
Google home with those retailers and it occurs to me that they'd be really smart to partner with a platform like you to enable that for all of your clients not.

[25:25] How to give away any future product strategy but yeah.

Scot & Rob:
[25:27] Your way into much but I can say that certainly you know we're always looking at ways to extend our platform and I'm realizing that.

[25:38] More and more Commerce is happening off property right and so you know our whole business model from the beginning of time was.
Consumers go to a Retailer's website and buy and the reality is more and more of that happening off property so.
Retail RC to push their brand or the consumers are we want to help them we want to help them do that and if that's you know again partner in to make that happen.
Definitely looking at those Avenues Cooper Ford Jason continues to,
can you know an uncontrolled Corner about future product releases this pivot to mobile,
so I remember the early days of demand where you guys were in this wacky thing called the cloud and and some of the earliest successes were convincing people to let you run their mobile site because you guys were really good at responsive and all that and then,
pretty quickly earned the entire site so you guys have been kind of mobile Pioneers from from as early as I can remember I've seen a lot of your.
Quotes of been around mobile give us what what do you see in as far as mobile Trends and and how did that meet your expectations.

[26:50] Yeah so.
Willie we think the headline or one of the key headlines for the holiday this year so far is Mobile in the continued adoption.

[27:04] By consumers not just to browse but to actually buy and if you remember mention one of the three predictions was Thanksgiving being a really big digital.
Holiday and we take the major driver to that is mobile.
You know cuz really in the past it was consumers had to wait either well going to the way back time machine to 2005 one day to get to a high speed internet connection but even at home.
On Thanksgiving or Black Friday oh gosh I got to open my computer I got to put in my username and password I got to bring up a browser I got up,
yeah there are a lot of steps there's a lot of friction and really it do the day the mobile phone is the remote control of our daily lives right it's tether to us so,
it's really just creating instant access like it does any time of the year.
During Thanksgiving during Black Friday through the entire cyber week for consumers just to take out their phone.
And in brows but what's happened you know the last couple years is.
Most retailers have really stub their toes around their their mobile strategy didn't really make it easier so why you kept on seeing traffic creep up.
They were still that friction Aaron consumers ultimately like either wait until they get to a computer or weighted went to the store to buy but again.

[28:38] Consumers are pulling out their phone on Thanksgiving on Black Friday and actually buying so just some of that we think are some,
mind blowing status is. Some I guess I'll give it to you for the Cyber week we saw Mobile Share,
traffic at 61% to 61% of the traffic was coming from Mobile by the way we to find Mobile as home,
.. Tablets are a separate category there but what I think is even more interesting is that,
mobile Sheriff orders for the week was 41% and that was up by the way from 34% for the week.

[29:21] Your prior so the idea.
And we can talk about and I love your perspectives on this like what are retail can talk about what a retailers doing to make it easier but that's that's the bottom line they're really breaking down the friction between inspiration and purchase and not.
Part of what's contributed again to Black Friday being a big digital day in the smoothing out in general of demand across the entire 7 Days of cyber week so it's really,
if I could say inflection points a big shift that we've been seeing for quite some time and it's actually coming through to fruition.

[29:59] Yeah I I think it's it's really fascinating we talked about it it'll a lot on the show we called the mobile Gap and essentially that's that.
That you know the fact that.

[30:11] Increasingly traffic is all shifting to mobile but the conversion rate on mobile tends to be a lot lower than desktop and so on these big holiday days when.
It's in a mobile traffic by Stephen Moore.
Like you know there's there's a potential catastrophe of 61% of my my traffic is on mobile in that unit converts it you know 1/3 or 1/4 the desktop traffic used to convert I'm actually going to lose money on the site and Zoe.
That the fact that you're seeing that mobile Gap Nero like obviously.
Is 61% of traffic and only 41% of the sales are happening there still is a gap but that you know that's a lot better than when it's 60% of the traffic and only 25% of the sales.

[30:53] So interesting to think about the series y that Gap is near Owings I certainly have some I'd be curious to hear if you have any thoughts but.
It is equally interesting question is.

[31:09] Whitney Rose is it just narrowing because of something that you need to Holiday. And so once we get through holiday.
We're going to revert back to that you know same old nasty mobile Gap we've been living with for the last couple years or have we systemically figure you know improve the mobile experience enough that we're actually starting to see a permanent shift,
tomorrow mobile purchases.

Scot & Rob:
[31:31] Yeah so I think the flywheel has started and it's not going to slow down and so one other interesting data point and then I'll give you a couple of my.
Hypotheses as to why no.
Why this is happening but I hate this part of the conversation by the way so if we do the mask on Thanksgiving.
For the first time mobile order share bypass computer order share so that's like.
Big deal right so 46% of orders on Thanksgiving were Mobile in 45 we're on computer now actually reverted back for the rest of the week but it just shows you like.
Okay computer is continue to.
Creep down and finally mobilize that Stout I think that's going to continue to a degree you know going to the point around why you no like I contributed it.

[32:31] Put it on two things one we talked about a bit or more than a bit which is a I so applying to buy to the small form factor.
That's huge benefits cuz they get that you mention it so little real estate figuring out what that it goes back to the what has no right product Right Price Right Time there it is,
and then the other one that were tracking is around the check out because it was not terrible was an awesome but it wasn't terrible and so I was terrible.
We all missed the rookie still are in terms of okay now I can put my name okay now I send put my address and credit card and whatever else the.

[33:15] Adoption of integrated payments like Apple pay and Android pay in PayPal for that matter.
We should not really helping in fact we anticipate nearly 10% of iOS orders will be by Apple pay and so that's just making it.
Easy and so I think it will go higher as more and more consumers use Apple pay,
and I'm part of the reason why isn't hires because more more people are using it yet but it's on again one of these things so that you know I'm a man and I do think it's one of these things work,
consumers kids are getting this experience they're going to have more confidence where they didn't before that it will then.

[34:01] Come make its way into the other 360 ish whatever many days you want to say year.

[34:07] Yeah for sure and I'm going to.
Drill down into those in just a sec but I do want to ask one of the data point if you happen to have it so,
you're one of the problems we always have with mobile as is conversion rates lower right so that's what we've been talking about but another typical problem with mobile is,
people tend to use mobile to buy fewer items per cart so you know the average order items per cart you know is a lot closer to 1 on a mobile device than it is on a desktop so I'd be curious when using these like nice bikes in Mobile / holiday.
Are you tracking the items per order and are you seeing that Spike up as well.

Scot & Rob:
[34:48] So we track it I don't work all of that data is,
and the next episode or we can sweat it out at some point right let's do that because that stuff ice we definitely track it and we know what it is generally but I don't know what it is comparatively for this time of year between mobile,
shopping cart so let's let's get that with W nice cheese or let's get that out today.

[35:10] Perfect.

[35:12] If I do surgery with you like I tend to think that there's kind of a systemic thing that's improving about mobile that hopefully makes for a permanent change in Mobile Gap and then there is a.
Kind of tertiary thing that improves mobile around holiday right like to this system a thing to me I totally agree with you it's improving the checkout experience and reducing friction in the checkout experience.
And integrated payments is the easiest way to do that there also are just.

[35:41] Better best practices in user experience there's things like using you know the Google Maps API or someone's Alice's API to enter.

[35:50] Addresses with waywest clicks then the traditional Fifield thing the the Apple pay.

[35:59] Those things are interesting but for example this year Google launched this thing called the payment request API.
Which is a 8 method built into their browsers in their mobile browsers that makes it way easier to store payment information on your phone.
Once and auto and security auto fill all those forms from from every retailer that supports it and so once retailers start supporting that that pin request API.
Check out becomes much lower friction there and we're starting to see see some pretty significant deployment so I think they're a bunch of things working in favor of.
Reducing checkout friction and I I suspected hope that that's going to.
Eagle a permanent reduction in the mobile Gap and that's super important to me because Scott and I actually had a debate about whether that mobile Gap was going to go away or not last year and I think I said it was so if it doesn't I'm going to I'm going to lose that fat.

Scot & Rob:
[37:00] What happens when it goes away. What are you talking about well I guess you got plenty of topics.

[37:04] Yeah yeah I mean by quick weave shortage of topics has never been Scott and eyes problems.

[37:12] The but the other thing that I do think just works in Mobile favor over holiday is what I'll call buying intent right that.

[37:22] There's a lot of reasons a consumer would go to a Retailer's website.

[37:26] So you know I used to use the phone book to get the phone number and find out if there's a product in stock.

[37:33] Today I'll go to the website and look up online whether the product in stock before I drive to the store.
I used to use the newspaper circular to see if the store has a sale today I'll go to the website and look and see if they're having a sale.
I used to use the Yellow Pages to see where the store nearest me was today I'll go to the store locator on the site to see where that the store was all all so they're all these.

[37:56] Visits that happened to a retailer site where no one ever intended to buy anything they intended to get information off and that they're going to use to visit a store.

[38:07] And so all of those things are actually happy things that you unscrewed that consumers are doing but they have the unintended consequence of making conversion rate look lower.

[38:16] Inside out during holiday when a higher percentage of the overall traffic are coming to the site with the specific intent to buy something.

[38:26] That that affects gets diluted and so I think it's.
It it's just a natural thing that as traffic goes up on these on these days when people are mostly trying to buy online.
That we're going to see the mobile Gap near a little bit but I do also think that the the the longer-term happier reason is.
It is just getting easier and easier to,
to check out and send Chopper stuff into your point as artificial intelligence gets better so the right product show up in front of you quicker and as we know it. Things like boys interfaces that are easier and faster than,
typing you know complicated searches and a search engine that I got that just all going to work in mobiles paper.

Scot & Rob:
[39:09] For sure I'd like to find you some we actually track that throughout the year and that's a that's a nice leading indicator as to what consumers are thinking so I'd like that like that apply to the mobile in Holiday.

[39:22] Any talk about some of the key days hear anything else on mobile that that you want to.

[39:32] Again I think the key piece of it is it's it's helping to a bit smooth out the the demand because the consumers have that access and control in Tazewell.
Reference before that transparency and and it's in it showed.
As as consumers just continue to go to that as their mechanism to connect with the retailers.

[39:57] About a Multi-Device because you guys are running,
go towards the side against after you logged in effectively but anything anything interesting their arguments people I say as well people are on their phone and they're doing research and they throw something in the cart and then they go to the desktop and check out now,
I've never been a big believer of that but haven't had enough data to either agree or dispute.

[40:23] Yeah for sure I mean that is happening and we're seeing the data because we're able to give an arm.
Persistent cart were able to see that consumer through most of the digital if not all of the digital Journey right and we are seeing fact that there are multiple digital touch points before.
The buy button which is of course just driving retailers absolutely Baddie because most of them can't attribute know where the demand is coming from and where else only they're buying and kind of needing it all together but we're finding that.
For sure to be the case and that we're seeing it even,
more so during the holiday time when if you can believe it or not,
consumers are even more time starved and distracted so they are starting their shopping journey in one stage for One Touch point and then.
Consummating in another so yeah that's it that's a big Dynamic that's happening and also they're using in many cases the,
you know the shopping cart if you will as a registry or a wish list and allowing them to also do a lot of research for not only,
gifting to others but self-gifting is well will self-gifting on,
the start digging into so many ski days and you hit on some of them is as we,
been going over the broader topics but what was pick November kind of first which is I guess the kickoff there through Thanksgiving but not including Thanksgiving.

[41:54] Anything have you guys been watching that. And as I feel like it is accelerated compared to last year a lot of retailers are kind of now calling it you know a month of black Friday's and they're trying to get consumers to ACT earlier or any anything by that kind of.
Early holiday. Talk about.

[42:11] Yeah for sure I mean it goes back to this game of discount chicken and it's not only between the retailer and a consumer it but it's between or among all.
The retailers and there were some that just went out of the gate really strong right on November 1st and if retailers didn't.
Already planned for that we saw that there were several that actually scramble to to make it happen but.
Are TV shows that wow the discounts continue to.
He brought forward the consumer is still in control and it might have helped with.
Brand recognition and certainly to get a jump on the preference of the shop where and when but.
Only 35% and I say only cuz it still needs a lot of Runway will occur of digital shopping by.

[43:09] This month is not Monday what we also stopped by the way just to kind of give you a broader sense of When shopping will be complete we anticipate we,
predict that 50% of the digital shopping will be complete by December 3rd so that's right up on us and then 80% by December 15th right again right around.

[43:28] That what I would say nautical shipping windoware.
People even though they might be promise to get the product in a certain amount of time or it's starting to get a little worried about that but that's my long way of saying yeah we're definitely tracking this the discount keys.

[43:45] And other promotional activities what we started to see to I don't know if it was purposely plan for.
This time of year or not but more more subscriptions.
That are being launched a subscription Services right so stance as an example just launching their there.

[44:09] Their subscription for socks or Fruit of the Loom so I wonder if that has a little to do with hey this is an interesting gift to get this time of year that last throughout the entire year.

[44:21] That is totally interested I haven't noticed that transfer I will redouble my Maya observations and follow that,
as we move from that kind of pre pre Thanksgiving. And start looking at it's a big 5 days what what are you guys seeing in terms of Thanksgiving Black Friday,
that the weekend and then Cyber Monday.

Scot & Rob:
[44:43] Yeah absolutely yes sir we saw just actually across the seven days to.
Throw it out there we saw a 26% / All Digital growth and we saw.
Really high spike in Black Friday and it actually based on our data was the biggest digital shopping day.
Of the holiday season but we also saw Thanksgiving being.
Significant growth as well so people aren't again aren't waiting and so you know across the board we're seeing some really really nice growth as we anticipated because of the strong digital growth that we saw.
In our shopping index in Q3 we anticipated it but it was really really interesting to see you again particularly on Black Friday.

[45:36] Very interesting in just a clarification some vendors like see a subset of all the the.
E-commerce traction transactions and they they use a statistical model to try to extrapolate that and say.
And here's you know here's what we think happened in a hundred percent of the industry in your case.
I think you're being a little more straightforward right like when you say 26% grilled you're talking about like all the Salesforce Cloud customers I sent you a saw 26% growth in so that that may or may not perfectly mirror the entire.
E-commerce industry or the entire internet 500 or something like that do I do I have that right or are you trying to do a.

Scot & Rob:
[46:19] That is.

[46:21] That is totally fair and so we do have a great cross-section of retailers and branded manufacturers of every size,
but that is in fact the case we do not apply Cisco model on top of we have here we just used the R3000 sites across 53 countries as as the sample set,
and that's another important the 6th and I think is ours is global we can and do subsequently slice it by.
Size and by geography and by segments phenotype.
A retailer but in this case we are providing Global numbers across all of the segments.
Awesome so we're running up against time and appreciate you recording this in the evening preciate you taking time out of your end of your busy day here I was going to get out of holiday mode towards the end here and,
you've already been super helpful with some of the voice Commerce stuff that we left talk about in an AI,
any interesting non-holiday trends that that you can share as you look kind of towards the next year or even three to five years out.

[47:33] Yeah you don't want friend where fracking really closely and it's I would say in the context of AI is.
Actually putting the consumer or.
The consumer data back in the consumer experience near a hypothesis is that we've been talking about putting the customer incentive everything you do for the last 10 15 20 years I remember.
Writing reports on it as an analyst but with.
The increasing importance of AI there's increasing importance on actually figuring out how to better manage and.
Operationalize your consumer data physically because it's just scattered in many cases all across the difference operational systems and so,
really interesting Theory Focus over the next 12 months on the data which isn't that,
sexy honestly but it's something we need to do so we think there's going to be a lot of investment there were looking at that closely from the my team and a research perspective and what that's going to look like.

[48:37] We also you know given.

[48:41] Now part of Salesforce for the last year-and-a-half certainly looking at what does a platform look like.
That helps manage the journey from all the way up the final at you know as you know,
Discovery research coming through Commerce and fulfillment and service and advocacy and that's what's really getting us excited as you know with the densities coming together.
Salesforce applying artificial intelligence to it we think there's this great value to be had by by retailers Brands to and rethink their front end systems,
animal holistic of unified way.

[49:30] I do think that's an interesting opportunity I actually think there's two Trends are somewhat related in that like one of the problems we had start they have a data is that there's a ton of of.
Data within an Enterprise but it's all trapped into these you know the spirit silos so there's like.
The personalization engine on top of your eCommerce engine that knows something in your analytics for e-commerce know something else and your customer service guys know something else and you know that to that consumer that doesn't look at those two separate Services they're like.
Man I sure did all this information about myself and they should go to use that to have way more relevant interactions with me and reduced you know a lot of friction and they shouldn't be asking me all these questions they already know about me.
But for the retailer to solve those.
They got to break down all those silos and integrate all that that data so I actually think the leveraging AI to get better experiences and kind of you know.
Doing a better job of integrating all of your systems are are closely related.

Scot & Rob:
[50:32] Yeah for sure no I think you articulated that really well if they all kind of playoff each other I guess the other point to is what can send you to see,
your Brand's going Direct on and become even more vertically integrated in retailers,
certainly going back for this life-changing and creating unique differentiated through products and services and so forth but you know really where you'll become interesting is.
How Brands and retailers as a reference before moves Beyond just their property which is,
really uncomfortable for many of these organizations because since the beginning of time it was about pulling the consumer to their property and owning them and not sharing them and now needs to be more of,
pushing their brands where the consumers are and that might be in various Partners or third parties that you know,
that's where the demand is being created so be asking to see I'm more of whatever you call it distributed Commerce or conversational Commerce property,
Daiquiris retailers outside your comfort zone from a technical perspective much as you know operational perspective as well to go where the consumers are.

[51:53] I totally agree and in fact I'll even give a little Club to your architecture that's sort of beneficial for all those those things.

[52:03] The challenges you know that all of these new opportunities are launched it's hard to know which ones are going to be huge successes and which ones are are just kind of.

[52:14] Buzzy and there's potentially a significant amount of effort to implement the technology to try these things so Pinterest launches shoppable pins.
Hey is that going to be a huge thing or is that a novelty Apple pay makes itself available through a web browser is that you know the most important thing I could do my inside or not and if you're.

[52:36] If you're a site with a non-friend Connor solution that you sort of own.
And you got a bunch of developers that have to implement each of these things you have to make big strategic bets about which ones you're going to chase and which ones you're going to try to be a fast or follower on.
But when one of the awesome things about your cloud-based solution is.

[52:59] You guys tend to do those implementations and then you know the customers wake up to the new version of the platform and it and just all of those those things are available and often like super easy and low friction to turn on and try.
And you know I do think.
That your your customers you know tend to be in a better position to implement and try some some of those new features and learn which ones are going to work and which ones aren't much quicker then.
Then maybe some of the the more Legacy on-prem Solutions.

Scot & Rob:
[53:32] Yeah well I appreciate that and certainly the consumers are moving really quickly in,
stating the terms to a large degree and so yeah I mean gone are the days of 12 months implementations to get a mobile site up or even you know a month to get Apple pay going it's Let's test the stuff if it works awesome,
it doesn't let's move on but let's not invest too much time and energy and put too much risk on the business oh yeah I'm in the cloud model continual innovation.
Certainly agility we're seeing our customers take advantage that weather we're putting.
The innovation in the platform of their innovating but themselves or third-party say I appreciate it specially coming from you the recognition of that and you know Cloud certainly as a key enabler.

[54:20] Well Rob that's why she can be a great place to leave it because it does happen again,
we have burn through our a lot of time but definitely one thank you for taking time out during what I know is a super busy season for you and sharing what the Salesforce.

Scot & Rob:
[54:38] Thanks so much helmets absolute pleasure and happy holidays to everybody thanks Rob.


[54:43] Until next time happy commercing.

Dec 5, 2017

Tamara Gaffney is the Director of the Strategic Insights Engagement Group at Adobe.  Tamera joins us to discuss the holiday e-commerce results from Black Friday through Cyber Monday (Cyber 5).  Tamera has access to anonymous, and aggregated data from more than 5,000 companies worldwide that use the Adobe Digital Marketing Cloud (including Adobe Analytics formerly known as Omniture), which represents one of the largest samples of the overall e-commerce industry available.  Her team publishes useful insights based on that data throughout the year.

Adobe 2017 Holiday Forecast and Realtime Holiday Dashboard

Adobe Digital Insights

Adobe Digital Price Index

Long time listeners will remember that Tamara first appeared on Episode 60 with Holiday Predictions for 2016.

Don’t forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.

Episode 107 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday November 30, 2017.

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, SVP Commerce & Content at Razorfish, and Scot Wingo, Founder and Executive Chairman of Channel Advisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

New beta feature – Google Automated Transcription of the show


[0:25] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 109 being recorded on Thursday November 30th 2017 I’m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as always I’m here with your co-host Scot Wingo.

Scot & Tamara:
[0:40] Jason and welcome back Jason Scott shirtless nurse,
podcast Jason you know but maybe audience doesn’t that one of our most popular episodes last year was the infamous episode 60 which was our holiday preview that feature adobe’s,
Tamara Gaffney and today we are excited to announce that tomorrow is back with us and we thought I’d be even cooler that instead of doing a preview,
if we could carve out just a little bit of her time even though she’s super busy being the date of wizard out there to give us a read kind of hot take on what’s going on after the Cyber 5 so we’re really excited to have tomorrow back with us she is too strategic insights engagement rings director at Adobe welcome tomorrow.

[1:23] Hi thanks for having me back on it’s been. I got to well it’s been a year,
I think this year will be even more exciting because we’re going to get some instead of previews will actually get reviews so excited to hear wake me up set.
Yeah we’re right in the thick of things aren’t we weave just just crossed over 50 billion dollars in online spending so it’s a big big year.

[1:48] And most of that is just got so that’s pretty impressive too.

Scot & Tamara:
[1:51] Yeah but 10% is not not Scot at my I think I wanted to have your job.

[2:03] I think Scott has to have multiple jobs to support his Star Wars have it.

Scot & Tamara:
[2:07] Yes yes I’m sure if you look in the data what will have a Star Wars? Okay.

[2:11] Tomorrow before we get into it can you refresh our listeners as to how it is that you know so much about what’s happening with holiday spending can you talk about the the dataset you’re working a little bit.

Scot & Tamara:
[2:26] Yeah let me start there because most everybody who is listening in its thinking Adobe and they’re thinking Photoshop I thinking acrobat not syncing data analysis.
Unless they were listening last year.

[2:41] Adobe Audition.

Scot & Tamara:
[2:43] But we actually have a.
Technology for marketing that we called experience cloud and inside that we have some baby clouds in an a particular the analytics Cloud which is running the collection mechanism for getting all of the information for a vast majority of online retailers,
as well as the Nvidia Titan and tonic the first most of the web is using Adobe analytics to track,
information for themselves and and we have the keys to Fort Knox in our team in Adobe Digital insights where we’re allowed to go in and look at the aggregate of all of,
the clients in the cloud so what you’re seeing or hearing today off of this data is coming out of shopping carts and the actual tracking of what is going in and out of shopping carts how much getting fat. What kind of device is buying it,
all kinds of information that’s tracked inside of adobe analytics and we aggregate points add up into massive numbers.

[3:52] Got you in for really old school listeners the Adobe analytics Cloud was at one point on the charger.

Scot & Tamara:
[4:00] That’s right yeah it’s in fact when you login if your client when you login it still says that and who are also.

[4:08] Let’s say I didn’t want I don’t have to use the product manager who’s I know we’ve totally normalized all the new names but yeah the URL still on the chair.

Scot & Tamara:
[4:15] Right it’s been 7 years now that we’ve been an adobe analytics and everyone still remember said that old Brandon so that’s that must be the Hallmark of a good brand right there.

[4:27] I absolutely in and soul to soul recap like their other vendors,
out there that give holiday data based on their customer bases but they’re you know most most vendors have you can have every real best business in and steal your customers might represent 5 or 10% of the market and.
That depending on your product it sort of self-select for a particular type of of customer in so you know there can be a lot of sort of inherent bias is in a lot of those data sets that that vendors that aren’t really in the analytic space have when they,
try to share some of that their holiday insights but in your case it’s it’s the same tool that that many retailers are using the tractor,
their own progress and I think you’re going to tell me that you have a pretty big representative sample of the overall e-commerce industry.

Scot & Tamara:
[5:18] Yeah we do and to be fair to everyone we all have a sample,
we just happen to have a drink normally huge sample which makes it frankly a little bit easy to predict what’s going to happen there isn’t that much out there that I’m trying to.
Figure out but but yeah we’re covering 80% of the top 100 retailers web retailers and we are.
Covering about $7.50 out of every $10 spent on line inside of the Adobe analytics and Adobe experience Cloud platform so,
the date of that we’re looking at is very very big we’re talking about trillions of visits and billions of a shopping carts purchased During the period of time that our predictive model is looking at,
data to,
give estimates about where we should be and then of course he know we’re tracking the actuals and if you were watching the news over the holiday weekend you probably heard adobe’s,
recorded because we had over 9,000 press articles in the last 5 days so it’s been a really great for us to get the word out,
that’s awesome congrats on the so much sense I hope you get paid by mention.

[6:34] I wish that’s what we do track it in analytics just like you know everything else that was up 18% and are kpi so we’re happy.
Awesome yes it’s he said that at the top of the show 50 billion that feels good.

[6:49] Maybe we can start time at thirty thousand foot level what was your thinking coming into the holiday and your how are we tracking against that thinking,
knee revision to the back end up or down think that they are seen.
Take a giant step back and talk about our prediction that we put out the very very beginning of November and the predicted model this year we were,
down to the studs and rebuilt it completely and it took us we started February and it took us all this time to get it get it redone and the reason why we had to do that if we were starting to watch how our model was working against,
behavioral patterns that we’re seeing in the market we noticed that that these big shopping days we’re stealing.

[7:42] Feeling shopping stealing revenue from other days and and that caused the model which had some assumptions in it about some constant growth.
In various levels of e-commerce spend to really start to become.
Not the right way to measure things so because we are never satisfied with what we used to do we decided that we needed to have a specific growth rate,
estimate for everyday of the year and and that it has changed our Outlook and it changed a little bit of r model from the.
Back so we did some revising of the past but not too big and and then we put out our prediction which was 107.4 billion dollars and that is a 13.8% growth rate last year was a 14.4% growth rate based on our revised,
I data in our models and so you can see that the growth rate is starting to decline but the actual total difference in spending is,
and and groceries are very difficult to conceptualize number because as a base gets bigger and bigger a grocery and actually goes down so so do not enter,
the lower growth rate the last year as a negative sign because e-commerce is still alive and well and in fact if you’ve been watching the news it’s it’s all the same as it ever was talking about. How much more is going online.

[9:11] Yeah I think in the offline world where things are going to happen 4% will take.
14 or 18 in is probably fine like I said we are seeing that retailers pricing promotions are causing.
The consumers to wait,
And Delay spending so some of this growth that we see big spiky growth in days like Cyber Monday, the expense of the beginning of November.
Which is strange considering that,
if you’re watching your email box or paying attention to what retailers are doing you see them talking about Black Friday earlier and earlier and you think well the sales must be really ramping up earlier than it used to but that is not an,
not in fact true.
Consumers has become online shopping ninjas and they know that the best prices are not until the Thanksgiving holiday weekend it’s okay,
it’s not always good for retailers,
but they’re waiting but they’re competing with each other and they it’s such a competitive Marketplace that they can’t afford to not have the lowest prices and everything else does,
so so that’s why you’re seeing the concentration of the holiday spending becoming Tighter and Tighter over the course of time.

[10:35] Interesting in I want to go down in that just a little bit more because when you when you think about.
More spending over the holiday. Like there’s a couple reasons that could be right like so you don’t want is people are just getting more good than they got last year or a bigger percentage of their goods online and offline it work if we’re just looking at the online number but another one is,
the time frame can be different right because we don’t have the same number of days every year and holiday and if I’m not mistaken this year we have one more day than we had last year so do we.

[11:07] You try to account for that in your model when you talk about the growth percentage or is it just there’s a small amount of the growth percentage that we should just expect because we have one more shopping day.

Scot & Tamara:
[11:18] Yes or model really looks at the two months of November and December and doesn’t,
pacifically look at when Thanksgiving starts although you’re absolutely right to point that out in previous analysis we had measured the impact of a shortened season because we’re.
Climbing backup in terms of days after a couple years ago we got to the shortest window between Thanksgiving and Christmas and.
And now you know every year we get one extra day which is great for retailers in the past when we look at what happens when you get a short season it was five six hundred million dollars a day and lost Revenue,
and that was because people don’t really start.
Shopping until Thanksgiving Black Friday time. And then they shop for as many days as they have left.
So when you have fewer days left you just don’t get as far out in your shopping and terms of the nice to have gifts as you would have if you had more time,
having said that though the counterbalance to all of it has been over the past two years and to even greater,
greatest here we have the Advent of click-and-collect shopping,
cell that has links in the season that and the fact that we have longer.
Periods of time that we can wait before shipping free shipping stops and.
Before the shipper say they can’t get stuff to us that’s because of.

[12:50] Really Improvement in logistics and data analysis on the part of the shippers themselves so we have a lengthened online shopping season compared to 5 years ago because of those factors,
and that helps online but the shortened season in general hurts all shopping.
And and all of that is it is a part of the model but not as specifically as you know looking at the number of days between.
Thanksgiving and Christmas.

[13:21] That that’s actually a great point so if you get back in that time machine and and Scott and I’ve been doing this for a long time like an old days you had this one thing you have a cutoff date right and that was the last day you can hand something ups and still have it delivered,
via ground to it to a consumer in so.
Emotionally you were selling stuff online until that cut off date and once you got past that cut update your strategy was to sell gift cards.
Like something you could deliver electronically and like you know over the last 10 years,
we have multiple cut-off dates because there’s that ground cut off date and now you know a lot of shippers are a lot of consumers hurt you know getting express delivery weather you know that’s bundled for free or weather,
they’re paying a premium for that to your point because updates just are shorter because the shippers are better at it and then you know the the big Advent is you is you rightly mentioned is now instead of promoting gift cards for those last two days were saying,
click and collect buy it online and you can drive in curbside and pick it up or coming in the store and pick it up.

Scot & Tamara:
[14:25] Yeah and the end.
In places like you know Amazon for example in certain cities they have same day delivery because they’ve got warehouses located in those titties themselves,
so some of it is for the positioning of goods around the country and where where they are I remember a couple years ago watching UPS backup into a Nike store and take online orders out a physical store and deliver them in a local area so there’s all kinds of strategies that have come into place in The Last 5 Years to get Goods,
out of sight out of the computer and into your porch without it having to be a cut off so early.

[15:05] For sure and and now it’s in the porch soon it’s going to be in the refrigerator but because.

Scot & Tamara:
[15:11] I heard that.

[15:12] Are going to have the keys to our house.
But before we get there the other thing you mentioned which I think is potentially even bigger deal is it’s it’s I think it’s always dangerous to talk about growth without talking about dressed Ricky Powell.
Discounting the reason I say that is sort of twofold.
Whip and Seasons when retailers aggressively discount earlier in the season like you know it’s possible that they’re just shifting more sales early so we can see big growth over this kind of cyber 5mm really all we’ve done is like we’ve given away margin to pull those heels earlier into the season,
I’m in in their other Seasons where they aggressively discount throughout the season and they do drive more sales but of course I can have a hugely negative impact on on profitability in so you can have a season where I V,
we all Drew really well oh bummer we all lost more money than ever before.
Until I’m I’m always curious to track permit the promotional activity in one of the things that’s always exciting to me about your data set is I think you actually see,
the price consumers are paying in the level of discounting so are you able to talk about that what time you’re sitting there at all.

Scot & Tamara:
[16:24] Yeah I actually am because it again going back to how we collect the data we’re looking at a line item a product going into a shopping cart for pretty,
price and then we’re looking at the totals,
and you know what kind of credit card with use all that stuff is stored in Adobe analytics and so would we go in and do that we’ve created actually by the,
by the way every month we were Lisa digital price index which is a corollary to the Consumer Price Index and it allows everyone to track,
online price changes so so we use that type of information that we’ve built up in the digital price index to help understand what kind of discounting is happening during the holiday season and the interesting things this year for me was that,
the discount rate,
for the biggest discounts tend to be on items like televisions and computers and the electronic category has a much bigger discounts than other categories,
so last year we hit 25% discounts on televisions at tablets this year we hit 24,
so not a super big difference but not as much discount as we had before,
the little trick there though to keep in mind is that I’m calculating a discount rate meaning there was a price and then it got you know kind of lowered,
they’re actually could be that the prices came into the season lower and therefore the discount rate still got you out the door for less money.

[17:56] Then you would have even know there was a smaller discount so I’m so keep that in mind but some of the categories that we were tracking,
did not have this as Hyatt discounts this year as last year last year seemed to be a huge huge discount here and this one is a,
Sporting Goods with about 11% off and I actually saw an article about people buying guns which was interesting cuz that’s in the sporting good category apparel about 15% computers 15%,
and you know the.
Toy category itself is holding it about 19% discounts at the the real big.
Problem with side with pricing is that the times when things actually get their lowest is already the time when a lot of the hottest products are sold out,
so retailers don’t necessarily give you their lowest price on something that’s about to sell out until after they get through knowing whether or not,
they have enough inventory and optimizing pretty well using a lot of data mining to do that,
the other thing that I’ll tell you is that the shopping carts themselves were a little bit,
bigger than they were last year and the data that’s coming in after I prediction it’s showing us that the season is going to be a little a little bit bigger than a predictive model,
could touch 100 V 110 billion possibly so we’re going to have to see if.

[19:32] If the big Cyber Monday that we just came off of,
does feel some of the shopping center from the rest the back half of the season I don’t think it will though based on looking at the state of for 5 years people seem to shop as much as they have time for.

[19:49] Very cool and.
So you did touch one thing that I haven’t fully considered but I’ll bet you is it a newer challenge so you see discounts in terms of sort of is was pricing right like this price was this in an hour I’ll bring it at this n o n a lot of retailers are heavily promotional so that’s their their motor cyber on die,
but increasingly like there’s a there’s a huge everyday low price retailer out there and Walmart that really doesn’t.
Quote on quote discount but they certainly adjust there,
their offer price and more more we’re starting to see this Dynamic pricing where retailers change pricing all the time based on,
on market conditions and obviously Amazon famous for that,
I’m assuming you can see that is was promotions but you really don’t have a great way to call out the fact when a retard just gets more aggressive on their base price during a particular. Particular there a dynamic processor.

Scot & Tamara:
[20:49] So this particular analysis that gives you the discount rates.
Doesn’t have that but the digital price index where were looking at the price index by category of product does.
So if we’re starting to see things trending down or we seem deflation in a certain category.
It’s showing up an additional price index so in January probably around the 5th or so we will put out the December digital price index and it will have,
more of a trend around how much how much does everyday low prices are we seeing hit the mark,
versus the discount rate which is we going to Jack’s prices up and then discounted make you feel like you got a good deal.

[21:35] Awesome and it not to do it from the overall message we’re seeing a healthy growth rate and potentially slightly less promotional than last year which is probably good good news for profitability.

Scot & Tamara:
[21:49] Yeah it does seem like it it is also feels like Americans are feeling jolly and that they want to I’ll go out and spend we,
never have I seen before and this is the intangible in anybody’s model not just ours but a stock market High the day before Thanksgiving.
You know an all-time high and so so there’s that that question lingering how much is the economy and the stock market positive overhang going,
this holiday season in ways that the model couldn’t have predicted because we’ve never had data to feed into the model with this kind of economy.
In it it feels like we got a really no tail lens there any other Bitcoin hitting 10,000 which I’m sure all the US consumers are excited about.
Well you know a lot of people nowadays do have something in in the market in the retirement or wherever and so it does seem like it creates a certain sense of willingness to,
send when when when that Mark is going well.

[23:00] Chocolate with shift gears a little bit and I know you guys do some really interesting research and tracking around the device Trends what are we seeing as far as mobile vs. desktop in anything interesting there that you seen the shirt.

[23:14] Yeah let’s talk about that because when I’ve been asked what the biggest surprise was this year for me.

[23:24] It comes into the mobile device area which you would think nothing would surprise me about mobile anymore because I talked about it now every single year as if it’s you know the most important thing but the problem that I seen in Mobile is that.
Traffic is switching from desktop to mobile over the course in the last 2 years and traffic at people’s buying habits are consolidating and two fewer fewer websites to the actual traffic to websites.

[23:52] In general at in retail that also everywhere is declining.
Play Lee and and its increasing dramatically in the smartphone.
And at the expense of the desktop and the tablets declining a little bit.
So the problem with smartphone traffic is it doesn’t convert well it’s people don’t hit the buy button when they’re on their smartphone nearly as often and the.
Average order size on a smartphone is lower so from a retail perspective it becomes really difficult if more people shop on their smartphones.
We were calling this year for smartphone traffic to surpass 50% to hit 54% and it is.

[24:44] Is a general going to be true that statement the first couple weeks of the year were a little bit lower in Mobile Traffic,
when we started getting into Thanksgiving we went through the roof on on mobile traffic and in particular smartphone traffic it got up to over 60% of visits to retailer website,
add some of those big holiday days and what I was fearing would happen would that would be that the revenue would take a hit,
as a result and it and it didn’t and that’s the big surprise for me so we had about a 40% growth rate,
in Revenue coming off of smartphones and in particular on Cyber Monday we had mobile Revenue which is a smartphone plus tablet.
2 billion dollars on that day alone are very first two billion dollar day,
mobile standing and so what what I’ve noticed is that the conversion rate and the shopping cart size on the smartphone has grown much faster than we were expecting.
Which is me a perfect timing really because it could have been a disaster the reason why.
I believe has to do with our ability to autofill forms and autofilter credit card and use our fingerprint,
on a mobile device,
it was just so much easier for me personally to shop on my smartphone this year than it was last year now last year I had it and iPhone 6 plus this year I have a Samsung Galaxy S8 Plus.

[26:26] I don’t know how much of it has to do and see no switching from Apple to Samsung are or just the general improvements in the smartphone or the Improvement of the website and being able to use the smartphone but it was.
Tremendously easier for me and I think that’s part of the reason why we saw so much more Revenue coming from smartphones this year that was my big big surprise.
At the season.

[26:51] Interesting that that’s really great news and we shall we often talk about that that lower mobile conversion rate is the Serta mobile Gap.

[27:00] And in general I would even say historically you we see the mobile Gap close a little bit on shopping days with a high purchase intense right like so.
And in that kind of makes sense if you’re shopping on a mobile device on a regular day and you’re in line at the bank and it’s too hard to check out and you run out of time.

[27:19] You just don’t complete the transaction but if you’re you know you’re shopping for a gift that you need for your nephew next week.
You’re you’re more motivated to complete the transaction even if that that phone number is all that payment information is harder to enter on your phone.

[27:36] And we we sometimes also talked about.

[27:41] Unit conversion rate not being a perfect metric right like so you know most sites when they talk about the conversion rate it’s all the traffic to the site and what percentage of that complete upper chest.
But of course if you’re not any channel retailer lot of people are coming to your site to get your store address or your store hours or check the you know lots of other tasks besides shopping and on these high shopping days.
Higher percentage of the traffic is going to the.
The purchase pages instead of the you know the informational pages that might be on your site and so.

[28:12] I guess I would expect it to be a little narrower but but.
It’s really exciting to see that the Gap closing if your premises right that it’s because there’s less payment friction though we should see the maintain those better conversion rates even after holiday is that right.

Scot & Tamara:
[28:29] I would think so we’ll have to watch and see how how well we do at.
The revenue coming from smartphones and how well were trending I did notice that in the past that we had seen some games and it was getting better,
the overall amount of smartphone Revenue at the percentage is around 21% we hit 27%,
on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday and 20% of Revenue so well over a quarter of the revenue is coming from a smartphone not just a mobile device so I agree with you though all good points.
It’s going to be one of those things that retailers have to figure out how to how to,
the momentum because the desktop traffic for the first 27 days of the season was,
Ware County for 70% of the purchases so as it goes more smartphone definitely that mobile Gap is is.
Big worry and if they can’t find ways to improve the conversion rate for we’re going to see their revenue take a hit eventually.

[29:35] For sure in and one thing that I would just encourage people to keep an eye on.
For sure it’s true that the shopping experience on a mobile device is more miserable than a desktop device in terms of.
Entering payment information and in some other usability things and then we are seeing lots of the improvements get made that you know hopefully we become permanent and and help help a bait that that mobile Gap but there’s one particular technology that I personally am excited about that’s called the,
payment API the Google is deployed so you may be benefiting from in your Samsung phone so it’s in Chrome right now and it.
It dramatically makes it easier to autofill all those to Safeway auto fill all those payment fields,
on a mobile check out and so that that’s in a bunch of the browsers at this point but only a small subset of retailers have have implemented in their site yet and so.

[30:36] If that technology gets broadly adopted by next year you know that it can dramatically reduce the checkout friction and in a week we look at the average mobile checkout at something like 27 fields that you have to fill out in this this potentially reduces you down to,
eight or nine Clicks in order to to make a purchase so so pretty meaningful difference if a lot of retailers end up adopting it.

Scot & Tamara:
[31:00] Yeah I don’t actually know where my phone gets that stuff to put in I just observe it as a.
Consumer and love it and you know when you when you have an awesome digital experience like for example the first time I.
Checked into a hotel room using my phone to open the door you know you kind of remember those things like how well how something just changed my world is rock and it takes a really long time for everyone to adopt,
when you see it then it becomes your new Norm for what you expect and that’s one of the things that we talked about a lot here is is the,
Haitian gap between what’s possible and we know we can do it because we’ve done it on one retailer site,
and and then everyone else very quickly have to follow or as consumers we don’t have a lot of patience for it to be anything lower than the best possible digital experience we’ve ever seen.
And that that that makes it kind of tough.
One of the things that we looked at for mobile that I think is worth pointing out is the conversion rate on small businesses those who are making $10 a year or less in total.
Online Revenue was almost two times higher than it was for large large companies and,
on smartphone and so one of the things that I think it’s fascinating is this idea that we are gravitating towards the super large product catalog shopping environment where we can go there and buy everything from you know I’ve been cleaner to diamond rings.

[32:36] And it’s just easier we got everything set up and we go there and up and down.
Counterbalance of this Boutique experience where I don’t have to go in and type in silver.

[32:56] Silver bracelets and get a thousand pages on my smartphone,
and that that’s something that I think it’s really interesting Dynamic for retailing going forward assist,
decapitation of the big retailers as we’ll watch them try to figure out how to make themselves more consumable on a smartphone.
And how to create this identity that people who have particular Styles will,
well enjoy I think that the small retailers have a little bit of a benefit there I think they also have a little bit of a benefit in that they’re forced out of it because I can’t afford it so they’re into Instagram and places like that where they have a chance to stand out,
and to get some of this holiday shopping headed their Direction.

[33:46] Interesting I want to unpack that just slightly your original point that hey one return offers a much better experience and then that becomes the new expectation and no one else’s Force to match it.
I totally agree with that that you know that that’s helpful to the oil industry that.
That open your hotel room with your smartphone experience I do have a pet pee with that one though and that’s it most of the hotels that support that still make you use your key to go up the elevator.

[34:12] Which defeats the purpose to me but I digress.
The mobile conversion rate being higher for small businesses is super fast in the I hadn’t really thought about that before and.
For sure you could be right like part of that can be the Paradox of choice that they that you know they have a much more curated assortment and you know so maybe some of this white catalog shopping as.

[34:35] Particularly arduous on a mobile phone and it’s hurting conversion a little bit when you’ve got.

[34:40] Amazon with 100 million skus in Walmart with 70 million skus I could totally see that I could.

[34:49] Totally see your other point that hey is way harder for the small site to get traffic and so the traffic they get is likely to have much higher purchase intent.
So you know that the organic search on Google is going to get one by that big.
Big site and it’s going to send you to a page that might not be totally relevant to the keyword you know and they’re the ones they’re going to buy ads that you click on and those sorts of things but the people that find those small sites like probably had to do some work to get to that site and that means they probably.
I knew they wanted something there to other sort of yeah I guess one other interesting premise.
But another interesting thing about all those small businesses is.
The 10 to rent their e-commerce platform form from a big provider right like so you know these days it’s most likely Shopify and those big provider do a pretty good job of.

[35:40] Upgrading all the best practices all the time so you have a pretty modern mobile checkout experience on Shopify and you know if your small business in your on that site like and,
and something like this Google payment API comes up like you just automatically get it very fast where is on the on the really big sites that have sort of custom-built themselves.
Interesting Lee they have a harder time adapt adopting all the new ux stuff.
As fast and sew-in in some small ways like there’s actually a user experience benefit too many of these smaller sites that have to Outsource their e-commerce platforms versus some of the the big site to do it themselves so I wonder if that has.
Has some small role in it.

Scot & Tamara:
[36:21] Yeah I think.
I agree I think that’s a really good point most people assume that just because they were small businesses they couldn’t have as good a mobile experience in our data is saying that that assumption is is,
past you know it’s way old and it is very well could be due to these types of platforms that provide small businesses with in particular small retailers with all the same mobile capacity,
as I access the big guys so now we’re now we’re talking about,
how is the world going to become more personalized in these Big B catalogs I don’t think they’re going to standby,
and let small business kind of go back and get an advantage and they certainly do have a lot of resources to deploy a trying to find ways to make themselves look,
it just seems like that’s going to be,
a trend that will watch you happen I’m not sure if it’ll work though because we’re now selling more and more to Millennials and even genze which I like to call Crafters cuz I don’t like,
Jen actions you think,
boring but anyway I eyes I believe that those folks just turned 22 and entered the workforce this year so we’re now sorry to Pivot our conversation on to be on Millennials into this newer generation which,
is even more.
Interested in doing things like looking at influencers on Instagram to decide where they want to buy Apparel in jewelry and.

[37:55] Sporting goods and things like that from.
Pretty cool too so that’s been a really good tour of the macro Trends what was talked about a couple that’s the city days and you put on some tidbits near but I want to make sure we drill in Autumn let’s start with Thanksgiving and Black Friday,
the last 3 or 4 years as retailers have kind of started moving.
Black Friday deals around a Thanksgiving we’ve seen time and acceleration of Thanksgiving in a Slowdown of Black Friday is that Zack.
Something you saw this year and any other insights on those two days would be interested.

[38:30] Yeah so we had predicted Thanksgiving day to be a 2.79 billion dollar day came in at 2.87 billion 18.3% growth rate,
so yes it grew a little faster however the Black Friday total we predict,
to be 5.0 1 billion it came in at 5.03 billion and so so we’re still a little bit higher on Black Friday then or predictive models,
did and add the 16.9% growth rate so as we talked about this floor,
the percentage growth rate on a much bigger number is harder to achieve.
Thanksgiving day is quote-unquote growing faster but it’s on a smaller base and a Black Friday just crossed the five billion dollar Mark which is pretty impressive we also had out of every single day up until.
Cyber Monday was more than a billion dollar day online last year two of the days fell below a billion dollars so we’re now at a point where.
Everything to billion dollar day we’re going to have 18 We Believe corn for model 18 to billion dollar day,
2 + $3 days,
in the season so so that’s that’s kind of what happened on Black Friday and Thanksgiving Day then we got into small business Saturday and Sunday where we were just a tiny bit above projection these were like 10% gross days and then we hit Cyber Monday we.

[40:04] Got to be 6.58 billion dollars came in at 6.5 $90 so I knew bottles working out pretty well but that’s a 16.8% so the biggest gross day was.
The biggest day which is in front of the 10-6 perspective it’s very impressive and we all saw it.
Cyber Monday was starting to become irrelevant and it turns out it’s more relevant than ever.

[40:30] Which was surprising but Thanksgiving 18% but your.
You’re saying Cyber Monday grow faster because it like added more dollars it’s not the price of the percentage.
In spending on Cyber Monday versus last year you said that start as soon probably earlier than that like.
When we started tracking on November 1st we we we saw Billion Dollar Days Every day since then.
And every day in the season will probably be a billion dollar day plus and 18 will be more than 2 billion.

[41:16] Just one day to point it at televisor we saw on Thanksgiving was Arpita mobile day we saw traffic at 81%.
So yeah I was always imagine people in the store first and they can’t find me to look for the house on their phone to check the real time in the three other stores or two.
And try to get that one TV there after where are the stud that the phones become almost burnt the doorbuster fun there.
I call it shopping under the table that’s when you bring your cell phone to the Thanksgiving table and you know he’s kind of looking down,
doing your thing hoping grandma doesn’t bust you for praying this phone to the table.
You know you saw it you see a spike in store location look up sore or ship from store or any of that kind of stuff.

[42:08] Bill with trillions of transactions in as trying to get data out three times during that day we didn’t look into that,
we look into those types of things in January when we do a wrap-up report and and that’s really usually time for the NRF.
Need a timing in January to go talk about how people are using mobile devices for retail more generally.

[42:33] And we will certainly be looking forward to hearing about that in January it’s interesting with all these days because I feel like we’re just making this transition from utility the convention right like that.
Thursday is obviously a high mobile shopping day because.
You’re not at home in front of your desk so you know even if you were someone that would predominantly shop on on your computer you just have fewer hours on your computer you’re more likely event at a family member’s house in your on your phone and then of course.

[43:05] Friday was was a prominent lea-ann in store day and Monday was predominantly in online day because in the early days.

[43:14] You didn’t have that good internet access or computer at home so you know when you got to work on Monday that was your first opportunity.

[43:20] To shop online like I feel like all of those those things are dramatically less true like you know we’re sort of ubiquitously online like we certainly have good internet access at home but then they turned into these.
The shopping conventions in and now you know retailers have as a completely separate promotional strategy for Cyber Monday than they did Black Friday and then you know they’re driving.

[43:46] More sales on Cyber Monday not because that the first time the customer had access to a computer but because they got a whole fresh list of offers and if they felt like they missed some of the Thanksgiving offers because they were with family like this is.
They’re sort of second bite at the Apple at the perceived good good pricing.

Scot & Tamara:
[44:04] Yeah I think I’m.
I haven’t I have another serious well I agree with you but there’s one other piece of data that surprised me on February and a because I just kept thinking to myself why is Monday such as you know why is it still so big and,
D we looked at the shopping patterns by hour and the peak shopping hours on Cyber Monday or 8 p.m. to midnight.
Not during the middle of the day when you’re at work,
so us so it’s really this last ditch effort to get the lowest prices it seems to drive Cyber Monday and I have a Siri that there are people.
Need to press the buy button is dependent on whether they think something will go out of stock or whether they think the price will go up and.
And there are many things that we’ve put into shopping carts that we maybe haven’t finished.
With yet we get to the last hours of Cyber Monday and realize we better finish our shopping because if we wait past midnight the prices will most certainly go up until I think that there’s a little bit of the.
The bucket of Unfinished shopping hits Monday.
Especially the last hours of Monday and that causes I reminded to grow as much as it is.

[45:29] That makes total sense.

Scot & Tamara:
[45:32] Cool in the flag gets ass pretty caught up I guess so we we had the you know we were recording this on Thursday probably not much of note during since Cyber Monday,
we look forward to your 18 greater than 2 billion dollar days so in your forecast,
you know we usually talk about green Monday which is that second Monday in December which is the 11th this year,
and then there’s this free shipping day which is like the last day to get free shipping outside of Amazon and yes I’d say on 12:15 and then as you kind of,
look at the ones cause they’re in and see what you think about those days yeah so.
You’re right those are in the to go over 2 billion dollar days Mondays traditionally are big shopping days because we got our shopping list done for the weekend we go in and and do our shopping on Mondays.
Is there a there are probably more bigger high-growth days coming after.

[46:38] Time. We used to see the big growth days because of the click and collect and the extended shopping season so for example Christmas Eve last year was like a 25% gross day.
Because of Click and Clack.
It’s really funny when you look at that.

[46:59] Pictures of the gifts we ordered for them.

Scot & Tamara:
[47:01] Yeah that’s right you when you look at the jewelry category pricing it’s like starts to really Peak right there at the very end because of you guys.
They got your number is nobody.

[47:21] Went one thing just a historical like anomaly always found interesting is that perceives that Cyber Monday was always the biggest shopping day of the year and I think in toll.
Five or six years ago that green Monday was actually a bigger online day then Cyber Monday so it it.

[47:39] It hasn’t always been that Cyber Monday. Just have fun.

Scot & Tamara:
[47:42] Well I actually think that retailer should change their date from Cyber Monday to the Monday around Veterans Day I get this whole season started faster and you know it it all it would take is for Amazon to decide that was the day,
and we couldn’t,
Cyber Monday could be a thing of the past like instantly because Prime day has only been around for two years came out of nothing and it was an almost 10%,
what does average gross Day last year for what we measured so I just think it’s interesting that,
they wait too long to have these load low price days when they could actually kick the season off faster and change Cyber Monday to something much earlier in November.

[48:25] Yeah so that’s interesting for two reasons right like in brick and mortar which is been selling stuff for much longer than we have digitally like.
We see a very similar phenomenon right like there’s.
There’s this race to open earlier and earlier you know because everyone wants to be like they know that the consumers in general are trending towards visiting fewer stores and so it’s it’s it becomes a bigger imperative.
That you be the first door they visit right in so you know retailers used to open on.
Early in the morning on Friday and now you know they’re opening earlier and earlier and now they start to open on Thursday and they’re opening earlier and earlier it’s surprising that we haven’t seen that same sort of.
Progression with with online promotions and then you mentioned Veterans Day like there’s already a word for shopping holiday on Veterans Day and it’s called.

[49:16] Single day right likes in in China 11 11 is when the ball gets rolling and that’s that super convenient right like there’s there’s been a lot of talk about.
You know when and if Alibaba wood would successfully make single dad thing here and I I’m not optimistic that they ever will.

[49:39] But but to your point like if it seems like there’s.
There’s enough permission in the market now for for a retailer and I’ll be an Amazon would be an obvious one to do it just sort of embrace.
Starting you know that that 11:11 time. As the starting of the official promotions in it and I guess to a limited extent we did see that this year right because then they start with 10 days of promotion.

[50:03] Running up to Black Friday.

Scot & Tamara:
[50:05] Yeah deep well everyone did but the problem was at the truly lowest prices were not.
We’re not then maybe on certain point products they were but in general they weren’t and I was watching free sample and email is watching discount coupons come from various sites that I track and I was kidding,
you know the progressively a couple percent more off as,
time past until I hit Cyber Monday when I got a 20% coupon when it’s only at 12% so I think I think that the problem is that.
Consumers recognize when the lowest price time is and it’s till then and until it truly is a different day our Behavior won’t change and you can promote,
as much as you want to but we’re we’re smart enough Shoppers to know when things are over the lowest price we watch our email boxes we know,
unless were the procrastinator convenience shop in which case we don’t really care so I just don’t understand why we haven’t had Cyber Monday you know leap in front of Black Friday yet.

[51:10] Givens why why give why give brick-and-mortar the The Edge to get the shopping started first doesn’t make sense to me.

[51:17] I agree it’s interesting like I mean there’s a bunch of reasons I would hope it it potentially doesn’t happen but but from a.

[51:27] Perma pure sale standpoint it like you know you would you would think there’s someone that would if for no other reason than to grab that first-mover advantage and grab a chunk of wallet share you know while I want Elsa standing flat-footed you you might almost expect that in.
Yeah you know what to see what happens next year.
But I know we’re running out of time sort of final question like is there anything in particular that you’d be looking out for or that you think might surprise us as the rest of the holiday season plays out like is there.
You know you know make a break stuff around the end of the shipping cutoff sir or you know inventory levels or anything like that that you think people have been keeping an eye on.

Scot & Tamara:
[52:10] No I don’t think so I think the the question that I’m starting to ask myself is how much more can the shippers handle without having a breakdown.
Especially because things have gotten so Consolidated and the amount of packages so we we also tracked that the total number of units.
In a package is increasing us old people are buying lower-priced things and more of them which is probably meeting even more boxes than ever and last year when I was.
It was I was giving Tuesday I was in.
Manhattan and I’m walking around and the streets were literally 7 8 feet high of boxes everywhere.
And I’m just kind of wondering last year we didn’t have a major snowstorm happen during the holiday season 2 to slow down and pay the shipping this year.
It doesn’t seem like there’s too much to worry about it hurts the weather yet but at some point,
those boxes are going to get stuck and one thing we saw a couple years ago we had a little bit of edge of a problem with delivery and.
People lost.
Samsung trust in online and then an impacted online the next year so these our area today.
We we can’t really.
4C but I’m certainly interested in tracking if you see anything major happen with shipping or with storms or something like that it could be could be interesting.

[53:46] Have it have it down stream up at impact.

[53:49] For sure that like certainly one that we look out for his weather like you know talking about going in we are talking a lot about the hurricane affecting you know what kind of effect that had on retailers in.
In big chunks of the country is there reporting or Q3 numbers.

[54:06] The the shipping thing is is super interesting / scary we we talk a lot about it on the podcast and of course there’s a lot of news you know that Amazon has.
As aggressively built their own Last Mile fulfillment capacity in a course now they own a free two planes and pay a lot of their own employees to deliver packages.
The the interesting thing there is no.

[54:31] People you know including us are kind of speculating like hey maybe they’ll become a carrier one day but I point out.
Amazon we need to be doing this even if they’d never want to sell capacity that just UPS and FedEx are adding 8% capacity every year and you just told us that we’re going to be up by like 14% this holiday and so if you do the math.
UPS isn’t growing fast enough to keep up with.
The growth in our industry inside the smart retailers are saying hey how am I going to keep growing at these rates even when.
Shipping capacity is increasingly becoming.
A constraining factor and so are you know I think I think the the shipping Logistics are getting increasingly vulnerable so that is certainly something.
I’ll be watching closely this holiday the other thing and I hope it doesn’t become a thing to every year there’s some external Factor you worry about like there been.
Labor issues with some of the ports that you have been scary in the past there been labor issues with the carriers that have been scary in the past last year we had a very novel election happening over Holiday Inn and you know I think.

Scot & Tamara:
[55:37] Yeah that did.

[55:38] We certainly saw that affect it until you know the one thing in that elk that could come to play this year is a lot of the consumer confidence in a lot of the spending is probably predicated on the fact that most of us are sending we’re getting a tax break.
And so if something happens with that like that you know it wouldn’t shock me to see that create some kind of.
Glitch in the in the spending patterns as well.

Scot & Tamara:
[56:05] Fascinating stuff we could talk about it for another hour but but yeah you will.

[56:14] Exactly and maybe we will all have fun but but it has a course happen again that we’ve used up out a lot of time and I know we have you in the middle of the day so I want to make sure we get you out on time,
but we certainly appreciated talking to you and thanks for getting us all updated on the holiday season.

Scot & Tamara:
[56:33] My pleasure as always thanks for having me on okay bye bye.

[56:38] Until next time happy commercing.