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The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News

Join hosts Jason “Retailgeek” Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Founder and Executive Chairman of Channel Advisor, as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.
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Feb 1, 2023

EP302 - Kasey Lobaugh, Deloitte Chief Futurist, Buying into Better: The future of the consumer industry

Deloitte Chief Futurist, Consumer Industry, Principal and Owner, Kasey Lobaugh, joins the podcast for his fifth appearance. Having previously appeared on episodes 68114180213.

Deloitte has published some new new research, Buying in to Better: The future of the consumer industry, in which they uncover dramatic change in the consumer industry that over the next decade will impact the markets, models, and mechanics of consumer industry companies in significant ways.

Also discussed The rise of digital goods and services: Opportunity over threat, and a monthly consumer tracker: Consumer behavior trends state of the consumer tracker | Deloitte Insights

Don’t forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.

Episode 303 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday, January 25th, 2023.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

Transcript

Jason:
[0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show
this is episode 302 being recorded on Wednesday January 25th 2023 I’m your host Jason “Retailgeek” Goldberg and as usual I’m here with your co-host Scot Wingo.

Scot:
[0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners Jason we have a very special guest today first of all this is a exclusive first look so some big
new industry Trend data were revealing on the show from one of our favorite guests for a long time lister’s I’m going to kind of tease you with a bit of a riddle he’s been here for episode 68 114 180
2:13 and now back 4302 that’s five episodes his title is interesting
principal and chief futurist consumer industry Deloitte Consulting LLP
and Jason I know you lured the length of your title over everyone in the industry but I’ve done the math your Chief Commerce strategy officer that’s four words this guest has principle I took and out because it doesn’t really count,
Chief futurist S3 consumer industry that’s five so he beats you in Tidal length as well
ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the show Kasey lobaugh.

Kasey:
[1:43] Hey Scott Jason how are you guys.

Jason:
[1:46] We are awesome except for you dethroning me for most verbose title.

Kasey:
[1:51] Yeah actually before we created that title I went on LinkedIn and looked yours up and did the math so thank you for that.

Scot:
[1:59] I need 25% More Than Jake.

Jason:
[2:02] Well we normally don’t let Scott do public math on the show so I do have an intern fact-checking the titles but I had sounded right and then the other intern is on chat gbt right now writing a new title for me.

Kasey:
[2:13] That’s perfect that’s a good call.

Jason:
[2:16] Yeah but speaking of unfair check things Casey I believe it is the case that five-time guest is a show record so congratulations on that.

Kasey:
[2:25] Great where do I pick up my parting gift.

Scot:
[2:29] The interns will send that to.

Kasey:
[2:31] I’ll look for it.

Jason:
[2:33] Yeah you have to part before you get.

Kasey:
[2:35] That’s right that’s right well thanks I appreciate you guys having me back on again you know after the first four times I thought maybe the fifth time maybe I’d get it right.

Scot:
[2:45] Absolutely one I don’t know if I’ve ever mentioned this but the so one of your first visits you talked about the changing consumer and the great bifurcation and that played a big role in me starting spiffy so we
whenever I pitch spiffy I talk to potential investors and partners about
you know we are really focused on the convenience or any consumer and then they say do you have any research on that and I say well actually do and then I afford them the
the cherished copy of that that OG material you guys put out there on that that’s been a huge huge impact on me and starting a company so.

Kasey:
[3:23] Oh that’s amazing that’s very that’s amazing hopefully in our new work maybe you’ll discover some new opportunities maybe start two or three more companies guy.

Jason:
[3:47] So Casey obviously most of our longtime listeners are going to be familiar with you but for the new listeners can you give us the the quick synopsis of your background and how you came into what I think is now a new role for you at Deloitte.

Kasey:
[4:04] Yeah it’s a new role but it’s also an evolution even Scott you know was mentioning the research we had done before and you’ll see that a lot of what we’ll talk about here Builds on the things we had done before but just just for background,
I think I’ve been at Deloitte now coming up on 27 years,
and and really the vast majority of the time that I’ve been at delete I’ve served in the retail industry.
First launching you know our e-commerce practice back in the early 2000s and then building our omni-channel strategy practice Within retailgeek.
And then most recently I’ve taken on this role on behalf of our firm knows it was somewhat reluctant and I’ll talk about that in a minute but the role is to think about the future of the industry.
And to think about the broader.
Collection of consumer sector so we will we talk a lot about retail but this includes Airlines consumer products Hospitality Auto you know the broad collection of the ways that consumers spend their discretionary
their discretionary cash.

Jason:
[5:10] It’s fascinating and I think in the great tradition of corporate America you didn’t get to shed any of your old responsibilities as you took on the new ones is that true.

Kasey:
[5:18] That is true that it just just Stacks up.

Jason:
[5:21] Other duties as assigned.

Kasey:
[5:23] Yeah I know I look I’ll talk a lot about the work that we’re doing here today but I do you know continue I have been serving clients and I continue to serve clients alongside that the duties the research the work that we’re going to talk about here today.

Scot:
[5:36] But now that you have two jobs you make twice as much right.

Kasey:
[5:39] That’s right.

Scot:
[5:41] Cool let’s let’s jump into this new research so
you know it’s the the future of the consumer industry and you’ve got you know you’re you’re nice enough to share a draft with Jason died and we’ve read through all that and there’s there’s probably six hours of conversation we could have its kind of both deep and wide
so maybe for listeners talk a little bit about the origin of the research the purpose and maybe a high level and then we can kind of pick where we want to dig in.

Kasey:
[6:12] Yeah sure thing
sure thing well first of all we like to think that we as a firm a really good with our clients you know helping them to navigate the next two three four years
but we also were sensing that there are a series of things going on happening in the environment and questions coming at us from our clients that were a bit longer,
you know in time Horizon sort of recognizing that there’s a series of things that perhaps are happening that may sort of radically impact
the next decade of our industry and so you know our leaders sort of convened and said you know we should,
dedicate some amount of time to throw thinking across a longer time Horizon and so for us we picked a 10 year time Horizon
and so we started to talk about doing some work about the future now you guys know me I’m somewhat of a contrarian.

[7:02] And Frank they look back in history of you know reports that are titled the future of by the way you can go Google,
the word the future of in you’ll find literally you know Millions if not billions of hits on Google with those words,
and historically what I found was that many of those you know efforts those research they tended to be prophecy based or prediction based and honestly if you go back in time and a lot of them really are not that good
and therefore I was contrarian saying look I don’t want to do that I don’t want to be part of,
of making a set of predictions and yeah I can go back in 1999 I remember report in 1999 that said RFID is the future of the retail industry.

[7:42] And here we are you know still not a material part of the industry,
ten years ago you remember this magic mirrors of the future of the department store anyway so you know over time you see a lot of those things and so as we talked about it I was the contrary instead I don’t think we should do this and Leadership said great,
you get to do it,
so I get the assignment but I actually think there’s a reason behind that the reason was is because I was a contrarian P because I was pessimistic about the idea of doing it and they are leadership thought maybe we would take a different approach.

[8:16] And honestly that’s where I started I asked myself how would we go about this in a way that would be different than predictions and prophecies,
you know how would we go about it in a way that I could actually be proud of what we what we’ve come up with and what you’ll hear when we talk about this is that what we haven’t done.
Is made predictions what we haven’t done is made prophecies what we have done is research deeply,
the things that are happening in our environment I’ll say environment very broadly that we believe are converging forces that will shape the next decade,
of our industry and so part of that also was how are we going to go about it,
you know previously like even Scott the research that you referred to earlier the great retail bifurcation it was myself and a few other practitioners we got together and we thought through and did the work this time I said I want to do it differently.
And so we went about convening a group of professionals experts,
that would be informative to the process in fact as we sit here today we’ve now involved over 800 professionals industry experts luminaries academics major industry trade groups,
you know have all participated either through workshops or a series of interviews and our ability to convene this kind of group,
as input and helping us to shape this was really I’d say is differentiated from anything that we’ve done in the past.

[9:44] And then of course we also have our deloitte’s Global state of the consumer tracker.
Where we post consumers on a monthly basis across 24 countries to better understand behaviors and intentions and that was part of this as well.
And so the whole intention of this process was broad inclusive thorough wide and differentiating a differentiating perspectives in really generational input.
And out of that came what we call the six forces shaping the future of the industry,
no there were literally hundred or more individual things that were happening that the group raised
instead this is important now what’s interesting is there’s no no one person
had the complete view you know the art The Economist wanted to talk about the things that they knew we had people who are sociologists they talked about the things they knew people in Auto talk about the things they knew but what we were able to do is really.
Collect this information organized it will organize those hundred or so things under what we call the six forces and then we went about doing the research to deeply understand those things,
so the first component is really the six horses and then we proceeded to think about the implications of those forces along three dimensions.
The First Dimension is markets and that’s what’s being sold who’s it being sold to how are we creating value.

[11:11] The second component of that was models what are the new business models how will business models change over the next decade and finally mechanics.
They really is operating model how are how are we changing in terms of how we.
Deploy labor how we think about operational decisions and really just the execution of the business,
so that’s really the two primary assets that come out six forces research and then what we call the 3m’s or the implications upon the industry.

Scot:
[11:41] Cool why don’t you take us through the 64 forces at kind of a high level and maybe a little blurb on each just so we kind of know you know mentally where they fit in in the world.

Kasey:
[11:52] Yeah perfect so as I mentioned like,
100 or so things roll up to these six forces the first of which is really the changing consumer now you mentioned that Scott we had done some research in that previously around how is the consumer really changing well we were able to take that one and go much deeper.
Of course changes you know the changing consumer you know includes things like increased racial and ethnic diversity.
Changing sexuality and gender identity aging longevity shifting geographies it wealth inequality and generational wealth inequality.
Those are the kinds of things that begin to make up the changing consumer and each one of those we’ve done deep research on but that consumer also operates Within,
a shifting society and culture and so under society and culture you see things like delayed or declining marriage.
Delayed or declining homeownership certainly declining birth rates here in the US as well as most major developed economies.

[12:54] There’s things that have to do with education and the education gaps are declining,
subscription to religion those sorts of things live under society and culture and of course many of those things I just mentioned Define us as who we are as consumers as people and win
and what sort of purchase do we make when do we make those purchases Etc but what you begin to see already is,
I’ll say a theme of increased diversity that starting to really show up and we can come back to that idea but I use diversity here along multiple,
Dimensions to sort of talk about this Mosaic of consumers and behaviors that are starting to really become clear but then we move on to what we call exponential,
extech now what do I mean by extech well most of us in the industry you know when we think about technology likely think about infotech.

[13:45] But the reality is there’s a broad set of technologies that are all moving,
you know and maturing it very rapid rates and converging so not only is it infotech but it’s biotech,
it’s Material Science its Sciences it relates to space you know and other Technologies as well that are advancing that usually fall outside of what you know our purview might normally be for,
infotech then the fourth category is what we call radical industry upheaval.

[14:17] And really if you begin to dig in there you see real declining Financial Health.
You know at the Top Line the consumer spending has been growing at about 3.6 percent kegger.
Over a 10-year period the vast majority of traditional clients would love to have a 3.6% kegger growth over 10 years so the consumer appears to be healthier than many of the players in the industry.
We also see declining barriers to entry a shift from products to services and a whole collection of other things that really begin to impact the industry the health of the industry Etc.

[14:53] And of course all of this operates within extreme climate and planet.
Three you know we’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about global warming rising sea levels DeForest deforestation natural disasters things like that that certainly have us on a dire trajectory.
But there’s also some signs of Hope here too as that you know natural green energy is now cheaper per kilowatt hour.
Then petroleum-based energy or coal-based energy and that’s actually a good Tipping Point so there’s some there’s some good news on that front too now.
The issue for our industry though is that we’re going to be we’re about 3.5 billion consumers globally we’re going to be adding another 2 billion.
Another two billion in the next decade.
So we’re already on a dire trajectory Yad 22 billion additional consumers by the way over 80% of those will be in Asia and you have to begin to look at what,
you know how that slope of that line increases and what do we do differently our industry produces 60%.
Of the greenhouse gases that are produced by any industry and so adding additional 2 billion consumers really amplifies that dire trajectory.

[16:05] And finally shifting economics policy and Power,
because the whole industry operates within those dimensions of geopolitics and local politics changing monetary policy you know power and and power structures and there’s some real,
there’s some real changes happening there we’re we see you know our aversion to nationalism we see these things like reshoring happening for production work
political extremism polarization,
there’s some issues around immigration the difference between how important it is for us as a country versus some of the political positions in trends that we see around resistance to immigration within the country anyway all of these things matter.
And all of these six forces you know are converging colliding coming together and so you sort of have to have this broad understanding of the forces in order to begin to ask okay what happens when you bring these forces together.

Scot:
[17:04] So for listeners that are that’s a lot to chew on so.
So you know and we as I mentioned there’s no way we’re going to cover even you know like more than one or two of the six and then the underlying pieces our listeners are largely in the retailgeek
e-commerce world if you were to kind of cherry pick you know a couple of these to dive into and you know with a
a mind towards some action ability and you know where where would you start.

Kasey:
[17:36] Yeah so I started on this word diversity,
and I’m going to I’m going to pause there for a minute because the way I’m using the word has multiple Dimensions to it and sometimes that when we talk about diversity sometimes people think about racial or ethnic diversity which certainly is a component here and it matters,
you know for example if you looked at the data and if you got out to The Cutting Edge and it just let’s just compare for a minute the baby boomer generation was 75 percent White.

[18:03] Meanwhile the Gen Z is 52 percent white with 25% identifying as Hispanic so just there just between those two generations there’s a stark difference in terms of the diversity on that one dimension,
Now by 2044 is projected that most of the US population will be non-white and meanwhile those identifying as 2 plus races we’re will nearly double.
Now when you couple with that another dimension of diversity,
you know aging and Longevity let’s talk about that for a second because there’s a real change that’s happening over the next decade on that front as well.
So if you go back in time and you look at the Aging of the population what you see is a real dramatic increase from the 70s until
until today there’s already been a dramatic increase you know moving from the 20s into into the late 30s as the average age of a citizen in the United States
soon we’ll be at place where we’ve got more people over 60 then we have under 18 to real Tipping Point in addition to that we’ve got.

[19:07] Real scientific breakthroughs that are happening daily it seems like that have the potential to really increase longevity.
And so when you put those things together we’re talking about increased diversity needs wants,
desires along a lot of different dimensions you couple with that wealth inequality the great retail bifurcation Scott that we mentioned before and it just means that there’s a broader Mosaic one of the things I like to talk about often is that our industry,
was built for Mass not for a mosaic.
And there’s this movement afoot from Mass to micro and what the changing consumer and changing society and culture tell me is that that movement will only accelerate in the coming decade.
So how do you think about that shift from Mass to micro how do you build.
Your business to be able to execute from Mass to micro and of course in the e-commerce world that’s probably not that.
You know it’s not that advanced to sort of think about things like personalization but I think it goes much deeper than that when you really think about Mass to micro we’re actually talking about you know how do you create an assortment That Matters to.

[20:20] You know to the right group of people how do you build a brand so the explosion of Brands channels formats all of that is happening around us.
And what we’ve got to do is we’ve got to figure out how do you compete and how do you get ahead of that you know if you look at some of the data just around.
Gender identity there’s data that says.
In the coming decade and I think this was a Gallup poll they said that one in four gyms ears globally.
Believe that they’ll change their gender identity once in their lifetime.

[20:54] Okay so now if you play that out you think about the coming decade think about the traditional department store that organizes themselves by here’s the men’s department and here’s the women’s Department.
What we’re seeing is this Mosaic of how you identify Mosaic of this diversity and how we have to think about appealing to smaller and smaller you know audiences is really going to be Amplified if you really look at the data around the consumer and society and culture,
and I actually think that’s really actionable today in a mass.
Environment we have a value chain where we make big at scale decisions and most of those decisions are made by humans.
As you move down into more and more granular execution.
It becomes very difficult to execute in the same way so we actually have to begin to lean on new ways to operate that’s where Predictive Analytics comes in automation comes in and all of those I believe are very actionable
as we sit here today so hopefully Scott that was at least a highlight of one of the things that jumps out at me.

Jason:
[21:56] Wow you know it’s funny because that mask to micro thing
comes up in a number of our shows we talk about it sometimes in the context of like she in that there’s sort of you know this old model where you know Mickey Drexler at the Gap would you no tell everyone what the cool clothes to wear is and GAP would sell a ton of that.
That outfit and that the you know the interesting part of Sheehan is that they don’t sell a ton of anything that they you know,
identify that Mosaic of consumer bases and make a you know small batches of a lot of different stuff to sell the all those different people.
And it is funny I was doing an interview with a fashion reporter earlier today and she was asking me about the future of a.
A athleisure company she was interested in and I sort of talked about that that trend from Mass to micro and she she thought I was from Mars.

[22:50] Um and that brings up like one of my first questions about the research because you know I read the research I have a couple macro questions I want to ask but the.
One of the things I always struggle with when I think about the future is trying to get the timing right and.
Like I distinctly remember early in my career I worked at Blockbuster entertainment and we were trying to do video on demand like.
Ten years before Netflix was invented and we had all these technical problems and we partnered with IBM IBM brought in this Chief scientist and he’s like
don’t worry about any of those storage problems because there’s this new technology called the Blue laser in the blue laser is going to solve all these storage problems and.
Like the only problem was the blue laser was 10 years away from being invented and so it,
it did and other inventions solve solve that storage problem but not in the time Horizon we had right and and so there was part of me that felt bad like you know I’m talking to this reporter about that mask to micro-trend but like,
is that really going to happen to athleisure fast enough that is relevant to her article.
Seems really hard to predict like did you guys when you were doing all these interviews.
Did you did you try to think about the dimension of time or how did you think about the dimension of of time in some of these transformations.

Kasey:
[24:11] You know I love that question I want to answer it in two different ways the first is you know when we talk about Mass to micro I want to separate the idea that the market.

[24:20] Is already moving Mass to micro whether or not you know individual companies are okay so if you took that athleisure wear and you said okay let me go find the niche brands that are already appealing to you know,
Niche micro segments on you know on whatever their favorite social media platform is you’re going to discover some I could tell you I’ve got a 16 to 17 year old in my house and I’ve discovered,
new in particular athleisure wear brands that are appealing to them you know my son goes to the gym and there’s there’s these gym brands that have come up so I what I like to say is whether or not
you do you think Master micro is viable for your company I would say the market is already moving that late second of all I’d say actually if you looked at the vast majority of the big,
is look at the big retailers they’re already moving down this path they may just not know it.
You know I talked about the explosion of Brands channels formats service models that’s already happening you know pick your favorite you know large retailer and recognize that the word omni-channel you know inherently means optionality,
picking up curbside is optionally all of that is optionality now the problem for most of those companies have been there pursuing Mass to micro but they’re still trying to use a mass operating model,
to execute micro and some of that you know it begins to show up in the financials pretty significantly now let me go to another another.

[25:45] Mention here are another way to respond to your question because it definitely came up and it really the conversation about the metaverse
this is the this is the one that I try and avoid but I’m actually going to put it on the table and tell you how I think about it because this very reason of like is it real when we’ll be Regal will we all wear goggles you know I don’t believe it I do believe it whatever that you know,
that position is.
What we did is we said well let’s look at this and you guys will appreciate this from our days back you know together on the board of directors that shot dot-org I always tell the stories about this because,
whether or not you know we’re going to wear goggles I’m not going to talk about I’m not going to predict it I don’t know when it might happen but I do know and we just released a report this week.
From our future of the consumer industry work around the growth of digital goods and services.

[26:33] So we assess already that digital goods and services by this by the way I don’t mean digital access to physical goods and services actual digital goods and services now you know equates for about 3%.
Of the consumers wallets,
day three percent that may not seem like that much until you realize that apparel is around 3% and consumer electronics is around 3% now if you look at it that way it’s actually a significant number already.
And you know if when or where a RV are any of those things really began to take off that number will only accelerate.
So what I try and do the say hey let’s not argue about the form factor let’s not argue about let’s focus on what’s real and what’s real today is revenue,
real Revenue that’s already flowing now the issue today is that the vast majority of that revenue flowing to digital goods and services,
is not flowing to any of our you know what I would call traditional consumer industry companies so consumer spending beginning to fragment way flowing to new goods and services it will only accelerate.
You know once my equation back when I equate it back to our shop that org days was you remember when most people were offline.
And then when their office had high speed internet they’d show up in the show up at their office and they suddenly be online and that’s that was the.

[27:58] The Genesis of cyber monday right and so I use that to say look there was a period of time where most people weren’t online and then suddenly they were and,
and that accelerated sales and the same things true today most of us spend most of our time not you know wearing a headset,
you know at the point in time where that actually becomes real that number will only accelerate so anyway so I try and have a different conversation.
And try and demonstrate where and how you can track what is real about it.

Jason:
[28:29] Yeah the digital grids example was great and it’s funny because I
as soon as I read that like I jumped into my Department of Commerce data I’m saying like what other categories are like
similar order of magnitude and yeah it’s a it’s a bunch of giant industries that we spent a lot of time and and it is it is interesting because,
digital Goods to me is this new label you don’t hear people talking about it that much but there are lots of other labels that have like digital in front of them.

[28:57] Sort of feels like the label is expiring because the distinction no longer matters right so you know we all started in an e-commerce and today it’s really more.
Commerce the in the industrial revolution they used to call factories electric factories to differentiate them from the ones that ran on Steam right and today it’s just factories like I wonder if we’re going to go through this whole evolution,
where there’s this this new product called digital goods and eventually we’re not going to care about the distinction between the physical Goods in the digital ones and you know will be,
3D printing digital goods and all this other stuff it’s fascinating to think about the future which of course your,
your report like instantly took my mind to but one of my big questions reading the whole report in aggregate is there’s some really positive optimistic things about the future in here but there’s also a lot of.
Negative things and I’m curious like in the aggregate did you I’ll confess I read it and I felt a little depressed like I.
And I like am I a typical in that regard like like is there is there a way in which this is a slightly Bleak future or am I just.

Kasey:
[30:08] No I think I.
No I think it’s a good good observation and actually it’s part of the question like here’s a really interesting thing we had this workshops where we had these professionals you know from our industry join in and there’d be two tables.
They’d all be presented with the same information in one table would would decide that the future is dystopian and dark and they’re very worried about where this is all heading.
The second table have the same exact information and decide that there’s a utopian future.
And within this you know actually as a ton of possibility and and you know great progress right now the question you know if I was to predict I’d have to say okay which one of those Futures is the right one and the reality is they’re both,
possible they’re both pot like when you dig into the state of you realize both the YouTube utopian future and dystopian future are possible so then the real question is.
What’s the difference.
And that’s really where I love you know we’ve headed to say the difference has to do with the choices that we will make in the coming years that guide us one direction or another.
In fact we refer to our report in our whole effort as what we call buying into better because there’s a lot of change in fact there’s.
There’s more change that I see that it’s going to hit us in the next decade I’ll make the last decade pale in comparison.

[31:28] And those changes are up against some real challenges with trust and planet and privacy that we have to Grapple with.
And we actually have to buy into better meaning as consumers we have to be smart and make the right choices but also as Executives as owners of capital you know as Citizens we have to play a part,
and we actually have to you know help,
ensure that we’re making the right decisions as we’re navigating through to take us to the right utopian future you know I believe there is a utopian future I believe that we collectively just think about the audience here,
on your podcast the agency that we collectively have Deloitte is a massive firm where a massive firm with a lot of influence and we look at buying into better as our own North Star as well what role will we play.
So I think it’s the right question is it utopian or dystopian but really what’s more important are what are the choices and what role are we all going to play,
in making sure that we’re navigating that future.

Jason:
[32:28] That that is totally fair I’ll be excited to hear your answer on that the
the other thing that really jumped out at me like we’ve known each other for a while and I’m sort of a fan of your thought process and I like the fact that you tend to be a little cynical and I,
I suspect I probably am to the I don’t suspect I know but the.
I’ll confess I do this this presentation quite a bit where I debunked disruption where I talked about how I everybody always thinks like that whatever they’re working on is the biggest disruption in the history of mankind and that you know every little thing is some,
when unique inflection point in human history and how like.
Most of them aren’t that relevant in the in the overall scheme of things and so and so then you know I read your study in there we’re talking about all these things that are sort of,
exponential change all these things changing faster than Moore’s Law and you know it made me wonder huh like.

[33:31] Is this a unique Confluence of factors.
You know is there something special about this time that there’s more of these interdependent factors that are changing so quickly that you know the world really is.
Getting disrupted in some unusual way or like.
You know has this been how we made progress like throughout all history and I guess I was sort of curious if you had a.
POV how unique our current moment in time is.

Kasey:
[34:02] So I you’re right I start off as I said I’m a contrary I’m somewhat cynical as I start out but it has we’ve researched across these hundred some topics I realized.
That I while on the headline I thought I understood some of these topics I thought I understood but only when we got out on The Cutting Edge really understood what was happening did did it really change my point of view I mean look if you you mentioned,
you know chat GPT earlier in the call if you’ve paid attention to where that was six months ago to where it is today,
where you know the the other generative AI things are you can actually see this idea in fact Stanford University through their AI index says,
AI is now it’s not going at Moore’s Law it’s actually doubling every three months.

[34:48] And if you and I assume that you’ve been playing with these tools and this generative AI That’s now available to us if you’ve been paying attention over the six months you can actually really see.
The degree and the speed that that’s changing now meanwhile if you go into and spend some time like I spent a lot of time with our Healthcare practice because of the
the convergence of healthcare and consumer which is a whole nother topic we could go into but if you begin to look at the breakthroughs that have happened just in the last 12 months,
you know at the intersection of artificial intelligence and health if you look at it the advances that have happened with crispr which is Gene editing in the last year.
You begin to see like there really is some inflection point that’s happening and it’s really happening at the convergence of these forces,
you know I think too often we try and pick one and say oh here’s here’s one like drone delivery,
okay let’s figure out what the implication of that one might be but the reality is it’s the it’s the convergence of these topics that actually begin to.
At least for me brought me to a different place than I was when I started this this work.

Jason:
[35:59] Yeah and side note in preparation for the show I did ask Chad gbt what the the future of the consumer industry was and it came back with a one-word answer which is metaverse.

Kasey:
[36:10] I thought it was going to say hey there’s six forces and I said oh my gosh I’m out of a job.

Jason:
[36:15] Yeah we’ll see the thing is it’s chat gbt you know is this this model 3 engine is only trained on,
like you know a bunch of material from 20/20 I want to,
9:21 maybe yeah and so so it was kind of impressive that it picked the metaverse and and of course next year it will it will have all your the the version for the engine will be much better and have your stuff in it.

Kasey:
[36:40] Hey I don’t know if you picked up on this on the report we within the report we’ve got the icons of the six forces.
Those icons were developed by generative AI so we typed in text and were able to get the icons that represented 06 forces so when you look at the report you know there’s a little bit of an Easter egg hunt for you.

Scot:
[36:58] Cool it lets a double click on a i a little bit so you mentioned generative so there’s the the graphic generative side and the verbal or textual
these are all cool but what’s something practical listeners can take away so you know I’m I’m sitting at a you know
a retailer e-commerce shop and I am director of something you know what’s their take away from this there’s diversity of of all flavors there’s a lot coming at you 100 things how do they How do they
pull this into something in their day job.

Kasey:
[37:35] Yeah well there’s there’s a lot of use cases that I’ve seen that have been posted on Twitter,
you know relative to hey how can I do my day job today differently and some of those have to do with creating copy some of those have to do with I’ve seen SEO optimization.

[37:54] I’ve seen even complex things like taking a podcast like this and giving me a summary so I think there’s some real practical things that exist today but actually when I look forward what’s more becomes more interesting to me are,
the built for use cases,
and we’re starting to see those like there’s one of the Technologies is open source you know a lot of this is done through an organization where there’s a lot of control around it but there’s also Alternatives that are open source one of which have generative Ai and it you know
went open source I think about six months ago and is already spawned something like 2000 you know built for use startups.
So for example in e-commerce one of my clients who said once you know creating the content for e-commerce was like feeding the Beast.
We have this big assortment we’re constantly changing,
the assortment you know next spring we’re going to have a whole different assortment we need images we need copy we need attribution and that is just a huge Beast to keep up with.
And in my mind I can very easily see that being a tremendous use case,
for a built for use application that would allow us to and I expect that that will be coming soon that will allow us to move very quickly you know in that feeding the Beast scenario.

Scot:
[39:13] Tell it any other so we’ve talked a bit about the consumer and extech with a i any of the other six buckets you want to dive into that you think listeners would find interesting or actionable.

Kasey:
[39:27] Let me talk about one that that really stood out for me now yeah you have to back up a minute just think about the consumer industry for a minute but if you think about the convergence of Industries,
and in particular the convergence of the traditional consumer industry retail even and Healthcare,
you know really driven by the convergence of infotech and biotech.
You can begin to see the starting to take shape today and our deloitte’s Healthcare practice looks at this shift that’s occurring so we’re there’s a shift happening with.
You know from treating sick people to Wellness.
And as that shift occurs what’s interesting is the money that’s spent you know today treating sick people is largely Insurance driven Wellness though is a consumer category.
And in 2019 we estimated that that market in the u.s. to be a 700 billion dollar market.

[40:22] And our Healthcare practice is estimated by 2040 it’ll be a five trillion dollar market.
I just by way of comparison you know retail in the u.s. is roughly a five trillion dollar market so it shows the explosive growth
and certainly if you look at some of the major retailers you can see the recognition of the importance of healthcare converging with traditional retail or Healthcare becoming a bigger and bigger consumer category now depends on you know.
Yeah whoever The Listener is how they want to interpret that but what it tells me is with the Aging population longevity growth
or even wealth inequality and who has money to spend on you know Wellness that it will be a significant growth Market in the consumer and I think there’s,
real opportunity for many traditional e-commerce companies to think about you know how they’ll play as part of that you know growth opportunity.

Scot:
[41:19] Got it
um how about you know your colleagues in the auto segment published a lot of really cool things and you kind of healthcare agree with you it’s gonna go through it needs to right it’s like so painfully obvious whenever you touch that system that’s,
broken all over the place,
so I’m excited that that one’s going to get disrupted and then selfishly how does your framework fold into the Auto industry.

Kasey:
[41:47] Yeah it actually works I spent some time recently with one of the major.
Auto company with their CEO direct reports working through what we’ve discovered and what the implications are you know the things like Mass to micro,
also apply their you know of course the Auto industry is going to go through a major transformation,
where they’re moving from combustion engines to Electric but it’s not just like hey same car take out this engine put you know a new,
electric one in actually is a radical change in manufacturing and what the platform is but there’s also this digital goods and services thing I mentioned before,
because if you really look at where margin will come from and where Revenue will come from into the future you could begin to see you know you’ll buy the,
the platform which will be the car you’ll have software which will be the digital goods and services that you subscribe to and you can see that today with certainly with the leading electronic or electric
car company today is being able to subscribe to capability and you could begin to see that shift from,
you know traditional Revenue to new Revenue models so there’s major transformation that’s happening there
for sure in fact it may be one of the industries that that’s undergoing the most radical transformation within consumer but all of the same sorts of things that I’ve highlighted here,
actually apply there as well.

Jason:
[43:11] I’m asking for a friend do you see any specific disruptions in how automobiles are cleaned coming down the.

Kasey:
[43:17] Yeah I’m thinking that most people will be getting us a spiffy subscription.

Jason:
[43:24] I think subscription is the way to go.

Scot:
[43:26] The good news is all you knowledge workers thought you were safe and it was the people out doing stuff but it’s going to invert on you so,
AI is going to take the office worker jobs first a mill will still need people to clean things and move them around Force.

Kasey:
[43:41] Good point.

Jason:
[43:43] I don’t know we’ve talked about this on the show before but like you know whenever you get a CES and they show all these clever automations there’s always a robot making coffee.
And what’s hysterical about that is the robot is always doing the good job the robot is always like.
Pulling the shot and making the beautiful latte art on top of the coffee and then a poor human comes in behind the robot and empties all the coffee grinds out of the machine and I’m I’m like yeah it seems like we’re automating the.
The wrong wrong side of a lot of these equations.

Kasey:
[44:16] Do you hit on Automation and that’s a topic I could go to if that’s.
Well here because when you begin to look at the move for master micro I said earlier that the only way you can really make that move,
efficiently effectively is to move from making,
Mass decisions to making more granular decisions that are data-driven and then frankly our automated in their execution and so there’s you know there’s a good.
Shift of automation that will happen in this next decade but some people predict that between 50 and 60 million jobs United States could be automated away in the next decade.
Now keep that in mind that that’s in a that’s not a base of about 190 million jobs that’s a big significant number and on one hand there’s efficiency Effectiveness there’s granularity there’s you know.
This master micro shift that’s all good.
But on the other side there’s what we call Workforce extremes because we have to care about the people who will be you know automated out of their jobs.
If that number is even close you know then we have to think actively about how do we ensure that.

[45:27] You know that those employees find their ways to the new jobs and by the way some people can argue and I get this argument all the time hey in history every time we ever.
Automated away jobs we create a new jobs and that may be that may be true.
However a lot of this automation that’s occurring it’s I mean it’s occurring across manual work cognitive work and even creative work.
So there’s significant you know there’s significant change on that front coming the thing that was as a retail you know,
lover of the retail industry I think about those that those workers are also our consumers,
you know we need we need a healthy middle class right we need a healthy consumer.
Category you know in order for our industry to thrive so on one hand there’s a lot coming on the other hand there’s implications of that that we ought to be ahead of thinking about you know and worried about because there’s big implications that come down,
from from that drastic of a move.

Jason:
[46:27] Yeah I mean to be honest Casey when I read your the whole research in whole that was my biggest takeaway is like hey two billion more people they’re all going to live live live way longer we have an opportunity to sell a lot more stuff
, the those consumers just have to be in a condition in which they can buy.
Um so I’ll certainly be rooting for that,
I am curious though like what the future of this report is for you I do you envision,
redoing it every year is this something you will revisit periodically and would you expect it to change very much from year to year have you thought about that yet.

Kasey:
[47:09] Yeah we have in fact I’m glad you asked that question because while we may seem like we’re here talking about a report we’re actually talking about a program
what I mean by a program is
for Deloitte in our consumer industry we’ve actually launched the future of the consumer industry not as a report but an ongoing program you know a center and office that will be continually,
looking at the forces keeping this up to date,
but also you know it’s a collection of research is collection of insights it’s collection of tools we’re actively serving clients bringing this content to bear
and we’ve got all sorts of as workshops and application that comes along with it so that’s this is the beginning,
of that as an ongoing program so you’ll be able to find Us online you’ll be able to stay up to speed,
on the different reports that we’re going to continue to put out that that build upon
this work that we’re starting with even I mentioned before the digital goods and services report that we just launched earlier in the week is one of the offshoots that come out of this research and there will be more.

Scot:
[48:16] Brickell so you’ve this is called job security it sounds like you’ve planted a flag and now you’ll be able to kind of keep growing from here.

Kasey:
[48:23] Yeah it’s look for me it’s cool like this is energizing is interesting
yeah I love to be able to think about this in the context of the kind of work that you guys do the kind of work that I get an opportunity to do
so you know I’m thrilled that Deloitte has given me the opportunity to do this energize the people that I have the opportunity to work from and learn from are just phenomenal,
you know so I couldn’t ask for more rather than hey understand and help us make a difference.

Scot:
[48:51] To zoom back out you kind of at the top you said you know there was two tables and some ended up with the dystopian kind of view of things kind of a Hunger Games scenario and then the others were were utopian what do you think that Utopia looks like if we kind of pull all the levers towards the
best possible outcome.

Kasey:
[49:10] Yeah I mean you can see a path in some of these forces that actually say Humanity will be you know much better you know the ability to address.
Illness sickness the ability to you know create the kind of value that actually allows.
You know the additional two billion consumers the two billion people that to live and thrive.
Those things exist the ability to address
education gaps you know every one of these things that you look at today in my saves – you go look there’s possibilities that are coming that both have to do with technology but they also have to do with changing values
you know of of younger generations and their desire to address some of these issues.
So there is real utopian possibility that lives in you know within these forces that’s right we really do call it buying it a better because we believe better,
is an absolute possible outcome but we have to be active we have to understand the choices that are before us and then as Executives of companies we have to participate not just as,
you know you know in service of.
Shareholder value but we have to serve you know a broader stakeholder and make sure that we’re thinking about that.

Jason:
[50:33] I love that note of optimism and that is actually going to be a great place to leave it because we have
Perfectly Used up our allotted time but I want to assure listeners we’re going to put a link in the show notes to the Delight landing page so you can get a copy of this first,
report and dive into it yourself and I assume we’ll find all the following reports there is well
so Casey thank you so much for taking time out of your schedule and sharing some new knowledge bombs with us.

Kasey:
[51:03] Thank you guys for having me again I always love getting together with you guys and talking.

Scot:
[51:08] Yeah and if listeners want to follow your socials where you most active.

Kasey:
[51:13] Well so I’m on Twitter at KL Oba ughh.
I’m also on LinkedIn you’ll find the Casey low bar and and we will be continuing this conversation there and Publishing you know an ongoing thread of conversation and information if this is what’s you know interesting to you.

Scot:
[51:33] Very cool as Jason said we really appreciate it I sidebar with a couple of teenagers I thought you were gonna throw out your Tick-Tock but I guess I guess you haven’t really super like like Jason are you a little too shy for that platform I.

Kasey:
[51:45] I referenced I reference my daughter earlier as as being on the tick tube.

Scot:
[51:50] Yes absolutely well we really appreciate it and you know this early look for the Pod we appreciate you and welcome to the been on the podcast five times Hall of Fame.

Kasey:
[52:02] Well I guess I’ll see you the six-time sometime soon.

Jason:
[52:06] We look forward to that and as always in people got value out of this show you know the best way to repay us is
to write that five star review on iTunes if you can log on the chat gbt you can actually get it to write the review for you and just paste it right in into iTunes and until next time. Happy commercing.

Jan 20, 2023

EP301 - Annual Predictions, NRF Big Show, Year End Recap

This ended up being a slightly longer than usual episode, sorry! If we had more time, we’d make a shorter podcast (to paraphrase Mark Twain). So here are some timecodes if you want to jump ahead:

  • Recap of the NRF Big Show 1:27
  • Recap of 2022 Holiday and Full Year Results 22:43
  • 2022 Predictions Scoring 30:34
  • 2023 Predictions 54:51

2022 Predictions Recap

Jason:

  1. NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don’t deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022. Yes
  2. Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry Yes
  3. Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022. Yes
  4. Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores No
  5. Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired No

Jason Total Score: 3 of 5

Scot:

  1. Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS No
  2. Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or  Jokr goes out of business in 2022 Yes
  3. Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue Yes
  4. Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US No
  5. Fabric gets acquired No

Scot Total Score: 2 of 5

Jason pulls out the rare win!

2023 Predictions

Jason:

  1. At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City)
  2. BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) – at least one merges/exits US or BNPL.
  3. Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network
  4. Meta/Google/TikTok lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks.
  5. Live Streaming Commerce Still not meaningful in US in 2023 (less than 5% of social commerce in US)

Scot:

  1. Amazon uses this 2022 setback/slowdown/reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations, but behind the scenes they take share and raise the bar on shipping
  2. Shopify is acquired
  3. An innovation in e-commerce powered by ai (gpt4) surprises us by how fast it’s adopted and how cool it is
  4. E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in 2H after a mean regression in 1H. E-com returns 10-15% growth rates.
  5. Sephora and/or Ulta move to a subscription model for new product discovery

ChatGPT

“based on trends and current developments in e-commerce, it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry, with an emphasis on mobile commerce, personalize shopping experiences, and increased use of technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality. Additionally, there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce”

Don’t forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.

Episode 301 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 19th, 2023.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

Transcript

Jason:
[0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 301 being recorded on Thursday January 19th I’m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I’m here with your co-host Scott Wingo.

Scot:
[0:38] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scott showed listeners Jason I was looking in our in my podcast app I’m an iPhone user says looking in the Apple podcast app,
we had a review in six months so I thought of the top of the show here we would ask folks if you enjoy the show we sure would appreciate a review if you are in that
player you go into the app you find our podcast
scroll down a fair amount because we have so many episodes about four Scrolls I would estimate and then right there you’ll see the Low Five Stars we would love a five star review or any review that you’d like to leave that would be most appreciated,
we do this for the reviews so we appreciate it.

Jason:
[1:21] Yeah I would just add that makes a great New Year’s resolution because you can literally accomplish it 5 minutes after you met.

Scot:
[1:27] Yeah and you get a dopamine hit and feel feel better about yourself sand Jason and I will be very happy,
Jason today we are going to talk about two of my favorite topics so number one you just got back from the NRF Big Show
and then we are belated with our predictions and recap for last year’s predictions so we’re going to sneak that in here we’re still in January so I still think we’re kind of in the new year a little little close here recording on the 19th but I think we’re still in that window,
so how I was not able to make it at in our F this year but you did and I look forward to hearing what you saw there.

Jason:
[2:07] Yeah yeah it was a good time obviously the biggest efficiency was your absence.
But for any newer listeners that haven’t been there before National Retail federation’s in Trade Organization represents the retail industry and and this is their big event every year this is a hundred year old show,
that is always at the Jacobs Javits Center in Manhattan in mid-January usually in the middle of a blizzard.
Um so so a bunch of things worked in our favor this year during the last couple covid years the Javits Center got remodeled and so.
The main areas where they do Keynotes and a lot of the big presentations and content are now like a new very nice facility that’s very comfortable.
And it was unseasonable e nice weather so it was kind of like 30s and 40s and clear no no snow no no blizzard to have to fly home in.

Scot:
[3:05] That’s good.

Jason:
[3:07] So that got things kicked off on the right foot and then to me the most exciting thing was just the vibrancy,
I don’t think they’ve published the final attendance number but I’m pretty confident it’s going to be just a smidge north of their 2020 attendance so,
that you know given all the things that went on in the last couple of years being positive against your last pre coded year seems pretty good definitely felt like there was a lot of energy people were really happy to be there,
and I was particularly pleased because.
Last year was not a great year they tried to have the show last year there was just a big pain demick spike in New York right before the show so a lot of exhibitors.
Publicly pulled out other exhibitors quietly pulled out and just didn’t show and so you know it was kind of this weird thing where they had.
Um you know a somewhat empty Spartan giant trade Joe for where they you know they frankly made a bunch of exhibitors still come in spite of the fact that there weren’t very many,
attendees for them to talk to,
several of the Keynotes didn’t show up and came via Zoom so it was it was not a good event last year and I was a little worried that that you know people that were forced to participate last year would be resentful and less interested in coming back.
But it appears like we’re back to normal.

Scot:
[4:33] This retail thing is catching on.

Jason:
[4:35] Yeah yeah it’s not going away.
So a couple of the big trends and we won’t go into depth in any of these but you know maybe some of these will come up as topics in subsequent podcast.

[4:49] They’re the last couple shows there’s there there have always been what I’ll call digital shelves like electronic fact tags everybody knows I always like to talk about video displays on shelf Edge smart shelf so that know,
um what inventory they have on them and.
They get incrementally better every year so there were a lot more of them this year they were all better and cheaper.
For a variety of reasons I still don’t think 20:23 is going to be the year that they become.
Super common in the wild but the tech is getting better a related Tech that seems like it has a lot of new vendors in this space is what I call in-store analytics so that’s using cameras and computer vision too,
measure Shoppers in the store and kind of like Google analytics for your your store again I’m not expecting huge deployments this year but it’s,
the computer vision technology is just getting more and more amazing and so that the insights that these things can get from relatively few cheap cameras keeps getting better.
Um there’s a lot of automation at this show so you know there’s the usual.
Auto store and perfect pick which are two of the big automated Warehouse Systems but there are a lot of other.

[6:08] Startup automation things that could bring automated picking to store fulfillment or small fulfillment centers or.
Pick to light systems and gloves like a lot of.
Get more efficient about fulfilling omni-channel order stuff so automation was a big theme.
Another thing that got a lot of space and signage at the show was what all broadly call headless Commerce,
so Shopify made a big announcement right before the show that they were releasing a new offering called Shopify Commerce components and so this is kind of a.
Upmarket headless version of Shopify Shopify has always been kind of a monolithic web app that you know was a super good fit for very small start-up companies,
um and you know some of which have grown to be quite large on the platform,
and they’ve always had a second offering called Shopify plus which was.
Intended to be more Enterprise features but the plus mostly meant more Enterprise sales features not necessarily a lot more Enterprise,
features in the in the platform and so this new offering seems like.

[7:27] You know a pretty evolved set of apis and as a we’ve talked about in a previous episode of this show,
fine but they sometimes called the mock principles,
so they had a big booth that was mostly focused on this Shopify Commerce components,
Salesforce has a very similar offering they already are kind of more enterprise-e and so they were there and then there’s a,
I want to call my startup they’ve been around for a while now so I’m not sure it’s fair to call it a start-up but newer more modern Commerce platform.
It’s called Commerce tools in the chief strategy officer,
from from from Commerce tools Kelly has been on our show before they had a huge presence a big booth and sponsored a bunch of stuff so there were between Shopify Salesforce and commerce tools,
you definitely got a strong headless vibe in the show and then for old timers,
the trade show floor is divided into three sections there’s an innovation Center which is all new startups there we had a great Innovation Center this year was mostly International companies so I companies from Israel companies from France,
there were very small startup showing some pretty cool Tech there’s the upstairs trade show for which is all the.

[8:56] Kind of incumbent Legacy vendors the Microsoft’s the oracles the ncr’s,
all the big players with a really big boost and then the more digital players that you know they might exhibit it shop talk or would have exhibited it at shop dot org in the past,
they’re in the downstairs exhibit hall and it all this is not true but it felt like this year one of the rules that was in place to exhibit at the downstairs exhibit hall is you had to rename your url to end in dot AI.

[9:30] Every every single vendor downstairs.
Was you know some some execution of AI and some of them were super interesting and,
I think we’ll talk about this later but I’m very optimistic will be a big part of the Commerce ecosystem this year and some of them are,
you know pretty speculative and far-fetched so so you know a good breath of everything and then I’ll sum all that up that’s what the floor look like the content you know is mostly,
some some decent key notes from from Big retailers and the problem with key notes from the CEOs of big retards is they’re not necessarily going to share anything.

[10:14] Proprietary or new insightful like it’s kind of interesting to hear their their philosophies but like I don’t tend to learn a lot that I’m going to use,
um in my day-to-day gig from the content sessions and in our f,
um but what I do love is talking to all the people in the halls and aisles and by far you know kind of trying to take everyone’s temperature that I could I could get time with the overwhelming consensus was,
this is 2023 is going to be a really uncertain year for retail that there’s a lot of,
economic challenges that people are going to be really focused on profitability and a lot of the Retailer’s talked about how,
um their budgets are getting reduced significantly that the focus is really going to be deploying that Capital against things that can have a short term.
Benefit to their cost structure and help them get their profitability up and so I kind of interpret that as.
We’re going to see a lot more a lot fewer investments in customer acquisition and front end systems and a lot more investment in back-end systems and optimizations.

Scot:
[11:23] Pickle I got a million questions on Automation in you know kind of the state of Art and my mind is still the key the system is there something out there you think
at least on the you kind of mentioned in store but I’m thinking more Warehouse side anything there that’s kind of.

Jason:
[11:41] Yeah so there’s two big vendor like so Kiva is Amazon’s proprietary system and to my knowledge they don’t sell it to others yet do they.

Scot:
[11:49] No but it’s still kind of the state of Missouri.

Jason:
[11:52] Yeah yeah they certainly could have some point so so you know there’s kind of two philosophies of these like big fulfillment center automation.

[12:02] Go go get bring the goods to a picker or you know you know so you actually move Isles which is what the key this system does it moves bins,
um to a human picker that then pulls them out so the picture gets to stand still or these fully automated systems that like you don’t bring things in on conveyor belts and so there’s two big vendors,
um there’s a store a vendor called Auto store which is like a,
very dense set of bins that are stacked quite high and they’re shuttled around on conveyor belts so it’s a 3D delivery system of these these bins,
and there’s a bunch of big retailers if you’ve highly automated your your fulfillment center in the u.s. like you’re probably using Auto store or their competitor perfect,
and so both of those had full live demos at the show that where you know are super mesmerizing to watch because they have all these.

[13:01] These bins flying around but then went there were was a lot of startups that were more Kevo like,
so instead of like a conveyor belt that ends with your exact products you know in a bin ready to package,
um these are things that are like lifting shelves and moving the Shelf to a to a picker so even in that Innovation Center there were several Israeli companies that you know we’re in a tiny little 10 by 10 booth,
with the little robot that could you know lift up a gondola full of products and bring and move it around a warehouse.

Scot:
[13:34] Merkel and then
from afar I saw Shopify really hitting the we’re headless to kind of train which I thought was interesting because they kind of have,
you just kind of dip their toe in that water
I read it as they must be hitting some headwinds maybe at Shopify plus maybe some churn and realize they had to go into that market pretty hard so I wonder if our friends at Fabric and some of these other places were starting to take some share from.

Jason:
[14:02] Yeah so I don’t know if it’s as explicit as taking share I think there’s this notion new companies are highly likely to start life on Shopify and it’s a.
If a family member calls me and says I want to start a business and sell something online I’m sending him to Shopify it’s the easiest safest best best way to do it,
so there’s a notion that those companies ought to grow up and you know either by something else or spend a lot more money with Shopify,
and so I think a lot of people looked at Shopify plus and they said oh yeah that’s that’s for the startup companies to evolve into,
and then I think a lot of people are looking at the these Shopify Commerce components in that same way I actually suspect that’s not the case,
the overwhelming majority of startups that start on Shopify are are going to go out of business,
right I just the attrition rate is super high and so most companies aren’t getting bigger and need a bigger platform,
um the I think what they’re trying to do by having a mid-tier kind of mid-market offering is not so much help their existing customer base to grow its to acquire,
um
a new customer base that you know frankly has a little more proven business model and a little more stability to kind of help them with their Journey a little bit right and so,
um I think that was the intent but far behind Shopify Plus.

[15:23] Shopify plus never got a ton of traction and they actually had a pretty big staff reduction in Shopify plus earlier last year so.
E-commerce components does feel like a restart like they’re tackling I think the right problem this time like before they were tackling,
the Professional Services that they thought you know an Enterprise client would want in order to use Shopify this time they’re there they’re tackling the.
The functionality and the flexibility that a mid-market or Enterprise client might want so I think this is going to be,
an interesting play but I don’t think it’s so much that Bigcommerce or Fabric or Commerce tools,
um stoled customers from Shopify I think it’s more Shopify want some of those customers in its ecosystem as well and obviously they have a lot of resources to go after them so that’s kind of how.
How I interpreted it.

Scot:
[16:20] We will agree to disagree on the a.

Jason:
[16:26] As we’re about to find out from the predictions I am occasionally wrong.

Scot:
[16:29] Yeah we all are this is the The Humbling part of this program is trying to make predictions
and this current world we live in AI everything was one of the things you have to have a DOT AI anything that blew your mind,
you and I had chatted about you know we’re starting to see a eyes for example that’ll create product detail Pages where you anything getting some traction or is it all just.

Jason:
[16:54] Yeah so so I so a I think there’s a trend that’s super annoying to me I’m old and curmudgeonly is everyone knows but like,
there are a bunch of companies that are decided to AI is cool and then they’re just desperately looking for a problem to solve with AI and so and sometimes they don’t understand the space very well or the problems or the economics of the problem very well and so there are a bunch of,
AI companies,
the I don’t find particularly interesting right like there’s probably 30 AI companies that are like we’re personalization engine to do better product recommendations with a i.

[17:29] And personalized product recommendations is super important there are,
15 Enterprise products that have been using AI for 15 years and are the is the AI getting much better.

[17:43] Yes but.
Like the you’re not necessarily like bringing anything new to the party when you’re you know a small start-up in that space,
um so there are you know some things I don’t get super excited about.
The AI for inventory management is super interesting like these models that are doing demand forecasting that are doing kind of.
You know most retailers kind of have a pretty simplistic model for for inventory balancing like you know what what inventory do I put in what fulfillment center how much extra inventory do put in a store for store fulfillment,
things like that and now they’re using AI to make that much more robust,
um AI promotion engines so you know instead of kind of a one-size-fits-all promotion where hey we’re going to do 30% off this product across the whole country,
um we’re going to you know throw some business rules to an AI engine that’s going to decide like when and where to offer a promotion and it’s going to,
factor in a lot more localized factors and personalization factors and so you know there might be deeper discounts and,
in some stores and other some circumstances and others are even in someday Parts than others so so I think all of.
AI to improve these existing business processes is super interesting and then the the new use cases.

[19:12] I’m very convinced that the majority of e-commerce content the majority of product descriptions we read attributes we read are going to be written by AI in the future like it’s gotten really good there’s a bunch of benefits to having it read it.
I’m about in the old days Channel advisor at a bunch of clients they created product content for and then they syndicated that content to a bunch of different retailers and one problem was that content was the same at all those retailers so from an SEO standpoint it didn’t look very unique,
and one of the things that a I can do trivially is take your master product content and make 10 variants that are.

[19:48] Equally human readable but are unique so that you could Syndicate different content to eBay Amazon and Walmart for example which is.
Pretty cool and as we talked with mad about last week,
you know Goodwill finds is using AI to onboard all their new skews pretty efficiently so I think it’s really good for that and then the last thing I’ll say is there’s a lot of super interesting stuff around computer vision so both,
pulling product attributes out of pictures,
um using the security cameras in the store to to do inventory checks and to do merchandise and compliance checks and pricing checks,
um and stuff like that and using that that inventory to understand customer using those security cameras to understand customer Behavior better even using computer vision to do better loss prevention which loss prevention,
is a really big issue with this show and there’s an explosion in organized crime this year and so that you know kind of,
predicting crime events is kind of an interesting thing the days a eyes doing so like plugging a i into a camera is yielding I think a lot of pretty interesting use cases for retailgeek.

Scot:
[20:57] Yeah very cool did you get to see some of our favorite folks.

Jason:
[21:04] I did I did I saw a lot of past guests I think I made a joke on Twitter which we’re going to have to do a separate show about how sad I am about everything that’s happening on Twitter,
but the.
The most common thing that happens to me now is I have a loud obnoxious voice that everyone at this trade show can recognize yrg from this podcast and so everyone is super excited and I get tons of compliments I feel bad that you weren’t there because it’s kind of,
it feels nice to have all these people recognized us and talk about how we’re you know an important part of their,
there we can help them in their job so I really appreciate that and I want to say hi to everyone I,
I did cross paths with at NRF it was awesome to meet you and thanks for for stopping and saying hello but then the next word out of their mouth is where is Scott because I’m way more interested in meeting Scott than I was in meeting you.
And I have to say that you’re you’re too much of a big deal the coming in or out.

Scot:
[22:04] No just I’m allergic to the cold and had a little bit of work to do on my side the auto industry’s on a different cycle than the retail industry sadly.

Jason:
[22:15] Yeah but they are they are colliding have you like Auto Commerce is going to be a big thing.

Scot:
[22:19] Yes yes was almost all Automotive companies which is kind of out of never did not have that on my bingo card.

Jason:
[22:27] Yeah they’re going to have to rename it AES or something Auto Electronics Show.

[22:43] Yeah as everyone knows my pandemic hobby is trenching US Department of Commerce retail data in Tableau and kind of annoying that in our F ended on Tuesday night,
so try to get up Wednesday morning and fly home but I had to wait to leave my hotel room because the 8:30 in the morning Eastern Time on Wednesday the US Department of Commerce published,
their monthly retail sales data and this month is particularly exciting to me because it’s the December data so that lets us do two things.
Look at November and December together and kind of understand what happened in holiday and then it also obviously lets us Wicked January through December and start talking about,
20:22 as a whole year which lets me retire all my 2021 talking points so so that was exciting.

Scot:
[23:36] Recap of what what did we learn.

Jason:
[23:37] Yeah so that’s about a four-hour show but I’m gonna recap the two top lines in under 30 seconds so we’ll start with a holiday so if you add November and December sales which I would argue the best view of holiday is November December January,
generate data is not available in a lot of people think of holidays November and December so if we just talked about November and December,
and I’m going to take a narrow definition of retail for purposes of holiday I’m going to pull cars out,
I’m going to pull restaurants out and I’m going to put gas stations out because it’s a super volatile thing that’s not very tied to Holiday behaviors so November and December sales were up,
5.2% versus last year so from 2021 which was a monster year we went up another 5.2%,
now most people were disappointed when they saw that number,
big for a couple reasons last year we were up 13.4 percent using the same definition of retail so.

[24:38] You know a much lower rate of growth in last year and most people you know are having to comp against last year and they set their financial goals based on last year,
and also in the middle of holiday like especially around Black Friday a lot of,
third-party analyst publish a prediction they say we have Secret inside data we have credit card data and we think retail sales are going to be 9% or 12% or you know there were all these estimates,
there were optimistic,
all the digital guys came out and said digital sales are up significantly from the previous year and the inner F came out with these vague statements and said like more people are going to be shopping on Black Friday than ever before so you heard all this good news around Black Friday which made you think.

[25:20] This is going to be a big holiday season and then and so you 5.2 sounds like a huge disappointment compared to some of that over exuberant,
but to put that in perspective.

[25:34] The historical average growth is four point four percent so 5.2% is meaningfully above the historical average,
and I don’t want to say I told you so but all of you that attended my webinars about holiday performance,
I heard that that I was predicting in that five to five and a half percent even even back then so so there’s a rare occasion of me getting it right.
Here’s the piece of bad news about that whole thing that 5.2% was all inflation so if if you adjust those two months for inflation we were actually down 1.8% from last,
so the big takeaway from holiday is.

[26:12] It was disappointing it was much more difficult to make a profit on this holiday than it has the last several Prophets,
so a lot of retailers came in a holiday with pretty robust inventory levels they didn’t sell through their inventory what they sold they didn’t sell it particular High margins,
um and so that’s setting us up for a uneasy first half of 2023,
retailers have too much inventory and and not enough recent profit so we’re likely going to see a lot of discounting and you know more pressure on on income as they kind of work through all that in.

[26:47] So that’s the holiday Debbie Downer the full year is I think a better story the full year we sold seven point one trillion dollars worth of stuff which that’s the first time we passed the seven trillion dollar mark,
that’s up 8.2 percent from last year again last year was a monster year,
the best year in my my career of retail so,
being up 8.2% versus that you know again is a really good story it’s a bad news is you pull inflation out of that and we were basically flat we were up 0.2.
Um so through that lens 2022 was not a fabulous year but the one thing I would say is,
what’s really interesting is where is retail compared to before the pandemic and cumulatively,
retails up 31% from 2019 so so the full year of 2022 is 31 percent higher than 20,
um an average year over the last 20 years in retail for a full year would be up 4.7% so.
31% is still almost twice what we would expect over a three-year kakkar so you know not a,
knock it out of the park year but still you know very healthy industry on the backside of this pandemic.

Scot:
[28:09] So if we kind of you know there’s that famous chart you hate and then we reverted to the mean does this mean we’re kind of back on the meat.

Jason:
[28:19] Because it’s wrong and I get to make fun of it.

Scot:
[28:21] Do you love to hate how about that are you hate to love I don’t know and the so we reverted kind of back to the mean do you think that this kind of resets and we get back to that kind of traditional growth.

Jason:
[28:35] I still think there’s some factors yet to play out so I’m not sure we’re going to get completely back to normal for 2023 I think we’re going to,
we are still seeing some residual pandemic effects and the main residual pandemic effect we’re seeing is.
The spending is still skewing to experiences more than Goods so there was pent up demand for experiences,
so we’re you know we’re we’re possible we’re seeing people invest more in experiences and less than Goods,
but we’re also starting to see a lot more economic uncertainty especially in the bottom two quartiles and so you know you’re starting to see even kind of lower middle class people,
change their purchase Behavior you know you’re hearing in Macy’s earnings that they’re saying their consumers start starting to make some,
you know economic trades in their purchase behaviors and so a lot of that’s going to be.
Kind of cooked into this 2023 so I don’t think we’re quite back to kind of perfectly the mean but I do think the,
the ratio of store sales to e-commerce is likely to look a lot more normal this year than it has the last couple of years.

Scot:
[29:47] Pretty cool and this is the one that doesn’t really give us e-commerce data.

Jason:
[29:51] Yeah there’s some loose e-commerce data in there which is why I didn’t quote it but next month they will publish the queue for e-commerce data so that will give us.
A full year of e-commerce,
you know we’re starting to use these T numbers instead of B numbers in e-commerce.

Scot:
[30:21] Got it cool we’ll have to do a big show on that one and you can just have a two hours a day spewing data.

Jason:
[30:28] Why I can describe my charts it’s soup there’s no more fascinating podcast than listening to a dude drone on about a chart.

Scot:
[30:34] Yeah that he can’t see alright world will put a put a pin in that one and come back to it,
on the all right so let’s talk about predictions so I had to go back and one of our many interns research this it was back on episode 284 where we did our predictions and
as is our custom we like to rate and review the prior Year’s predictions and then lay down a stake for the next year so if we go
I guess you’ll kick it off so you’ll go through my predictions and I’ll say how I did and you’ll kind of chimed in and then we’ll flip.

Jason:
[31:10] Awesome and are we going to do off of yours and then all five of mine is that the easiest way to do okay.
So we’ll start with your first prediction Amazon is going to start getting serious about a Shopify competitor in potentially double down on headless.

Scot:
[31:27] Yet this was a Miss as far as I know you know what I didn’t see coming was Amazon has had a bit of a rough year in and especially the back half of 22 you know they’ve done some layoffs they’ve,
shuddered a lot of their physical stores they stopped their plans for big grocery expansion.
I’ll get that get that out on the record here early and yeah they’ve even started shedding warehouses so I think you know what what’s happened is in this post there’s been some really fascinating articles where,
turns out they had this automated inventory system and its name is Scott ironically with one t and it.
They trusted this thing so wholesale lie that it just went kind of Rogue and did not see the downturn you know this.
Track attacking back to the mean and
it kind of went Bonkers and so it’s a little bit of an interesting case study of AI gone wrong and that has them having their hands very busy with their Core Business and they have not had a chance to
punch Shopify in the nose and in some ways they may not have to because Shopify also had a lot of wind come out of it sales.

Jason:
[32:41] Yeah yeah I agree and I’m inclined to give you a note that too but if I were making an argument that you got it partially right the argument would be that they rolled out a really interesting feature called by with.
And we talked about on the show we had a beta tester on the show that was super bullish on it and it’s kind of a trojan horse that creates them interesting.
Problems for Shopify that like frankly I’m still not sure shopify’s figured out what they’re going to do about but that went from a pilot program to full deployment.
The week before in our F and it was a major feature of Amazon’s booth and it’s weird they branded the booth AWS but like.
The booth was talking more about by with prime than it was a WS and and you know they’re not they’re not in the same divisions Within.

[33:31] Um so you could argue by with prime is partly a Shopify competitor,
but in the interest of me staying competitive in the predictions I’m not gonna not giving it to you and I will say,
of your Amazon commentary is certainly true,
but be a little careful like you know people tend to look at some of that and go oh man Amazon’s really flailing like they’re really feeling you know it’s a huge thing for them to cut back on their fulfillment capacity and you know cancel some leases and just remember,
they bought more fulfillment capacity than anyone else in the world has in a single year.
The year before so it’s it’s not like they’re getting out of retail.

Scot:
[34:15] You’re spoiling one of my.

Jason:
[34:16] Find that people over over read into the you know that accurate – news but they think it’s it’s a more material part of Amazon’s business than it is.

Scot:
[34:27] Yeah I integrated that into one of my future predictions.

Jason:
[34:31] All right so so we’re going over one I like it so far I’m winning that your second prediction is Amazon puts a hurting on go puff and others go puff gorilla and Joker.
Don’t get out of 2022.

Scot:
[34:48] Yeah I’m going to score this one a win I don’t I think somebody’s out our business and I think go Puffs on its last legs if it’s did it do a Down Round and layoffs and I don’t.
I certainly haven’t even used it I don’t know if it’s I’m sure it’s still around but I feel like it is on its last legs and
I’m increasingly here in North Carolina like in Chicago you’ve had this for a while
I’m increasingly getting offers that say Hey if you if you throw a little bit more in the cart you can get this thing overnight which has been kind of you know I feel like Amazon is really starting to shorten that delivery window
in this post covid world.

Jason:
[35:26] Yeah so I’ll give you a yes for that I do think a lot of the instant delivery companies like pulled out of markets or flat went out of business or left the US in 2020 so I think that’s fair.
I’m not sure go puff is publicly position themselves as quite as dire,
as you did I could be wrong but they you know they’re the biggest player left standing and and I think they have some some positive and negative indicators.
The one thing I would quibble with is it’s not clear to me if they are if all this instant Commerce not working is because Amazon put a hurt on them or whether,
it just wasn’t a good business model than enough customers were willing to pay for.
Anyway right so I’m not sure if Amazon was the direct cause of all that pain or not but I do secretly think,
Amazon has much better service levels than a lot of people realize you live in a wonderful place but it’s.
It’s probably not a tier-one market for Amazon I talk to a lot of people in cities that The the vast majority of their orders are delivered same day and certainly the vast majority of stuff I ordered from Amazon,
I get that order in by noon and it’s it my doorstep before 10:00 that night and so that still is different than this instant delivery but.

[36:49] I think Amazon’s service level is darn impressive and I think you know that certainly you didn’t want to be an investor in instant delivery in 2022.
So I’ll give you a yes.

Scot:
[37:01] Yes Pooh okay.

Jason:
[37:06] So your third one is metaverse lots of demo videos no Revenue.

Scot:
[37:13] Yeah think I nailed this one the Facebook has had a lot of Pi interface for spending an inordinate billions and billions of dollars on the Oculus the sales have dramatically underperformed even
you know even moderate to light expectations there’s no real use case that’s popped out of here and then just generally and then certainly if we look at our e-commerce world there’s really not much going on here so this one’s been kind of a dud I’m a little
bummed because I love AR and VR I just don’t think we’ve kind of come up with the use case I think the wild card on
this technology is there’s increasingly detailed rumors of Apple having a device and if anyone can figure this out I think applicant but until they do,
I think we’re not going to see a lot of metaverse updates.

Jason:
[38:01] Yeah yeah I think this is a category that to me like if people are familiar with the Gartner hype cycle it fits it perfectly like.
There definitely is a chance that there will be a version of The Meta verse that’s very meaningful at some point but right now it’s wildly overhyped.
One could quibble with your in precise language like you say no revenue and of course there are some,
some novel examples where there’s a little bit of Revenue and the one that has meaningful revenue is for the kids is real box where you know it’s.
Game Revenue it gets its you know ingame credit it’s not like you know people are shopping for real world of goods in the environment so there’s a few things but I certainly think the spirit of your things exactly right that it’s,
it’s wildly over-hyped and not.
A financial driver in the in the near future and I would even argue nobody can even agree on a definition of what the metaverse is a it sounds singular to fight this pack that it’s it’s quite poor rural.
You know a lot of people think the metaverse has to be on web 3 which means it’s open and,
Roblox is the example most people use the meta verse which is not on web three and you know a lot everybody thinks of the metaverse is VR and a lot of definitions of metaverse so Ike.
Do not require VR so I don’t know I’m cynical in the short term for sure so I’ll give you a yes.

Scot:
[39:27] Okay.

Jason:
[39:29] For live streaming goes mainstream in 2022.

Scot:
[39:36] Yeah,
here I was hoping to kind of weasel out with the mainstream so I will point to some successes so what not is a
very collectible oriented Marketplace that is all live stream
and I think they’re gnd is north of a billion it may be closing in on two or three so that’s pretty mainstream and then I’ve read probably 20 articles in the last 10 days about Tick Tock e-commerce and every time I dig into it there’s no data it sounds like it’s just new so I was hoping to take credit for that in some way but
don’t think I can so I’m going to probably score myself a no on this one.

Jason:
[40:18] Yeah so tricky like I think there’s some use cases where a live streaming has become a thing and collectibles,
is certainly one and it does I guess toy depend on what you meant by mainstream here’s the thing the most generous definition of social commerce all social commerce in the US last year was about.
60 billion in total sales and live streaming was likely less than 1% of that 60 billion so I.

[40:48] Social commerce isn’t that big a piece of Commerce and live streaming is in a very big piece of social commerce so I through that lens,
I feel like it’s not a big thing and fun fact none of the Commerce on Tick Tock is wives.
It’s so people do I think confused short form video with live streaming,
um and so I tend to think live streaming is overhyped in the US it does work in China but what people don’t understand is,
that live streaming in China is,
flash deal-sales like all of them come with a significant price offer and the reason that you you want to watch that stream when it’s alive is because,
that offer has scarcity attached to it and that offer is not going to be available two hours after the video plays so you have to watch it while it’s being broadcast in order to get that deal,
um and you know none of the u.s. versions have really been that that deal oriented and without that deal why have live streaming when you could just record a short form video and,
you know 100 times more people watch it over the subsequent two weeks or three weeks or whatever so so for all those reasons,
I feel like live streaming has been a little overhyped in the US and I agree with you why I probably didn’t go mainstream this year.

Scot:
[42:09] Yeah I don’t know Tick Tock could be live stream it’s kind of there’s a stream.

Jason:
[42:16] But it’s yep are you watching it when the person talks I mean that’s what it boils down to or is it recorded on a server and you watched it days later.

Scot:
[42:23] I don’t Tick Tock I don’t want I don’t want my get brainwashed.

Jason:
[42:26] Yeah spoiler alert it’s not last.

Scot:
[42:29] Okay.

Jason:
[42:33] There is a live flavor on Tik-Tok but it’s been quite small.

Scot:
[42:37] Yeah I’m two for two so I’m Batman 50.

Jason:
[42:40] So you’re to noes to yeses and then your final prediction,
is that fabric which is a an e-commerce platform / Marketplace and and the CEO Fazal has been on a show a couple times and you were predicting that they would.
What says fabric acquisition so that could mean either that they made a big acquisition or they got acquired.

Scot:
[43:04] Yeah it was being acquired.

Jason:
[43:07] Yeah that’s what I said.
Yes and I met him at the show and I can confirm that he’s still at fabric.

Scot:
[43:14] How are they doing.

Jason:
[43:15] Really well well I think they feel like,
there are well positioned and benefiting from some of these headless trends that we talked about and we had a good chat Faso as a longtime veteran of the industry and ran e-commerce at Staples and and some other places so he’s always fun to talk to.

Scot:
[43:33] Here’s a head-scratcher so facile likes to be called Faisal and then we have a guy at 50 that wants to be Fazal so so and you know you know how it is like I know it’s I cannot get it right because I always
it’s 50/50 coin toss but it always lands the wrong way so it’s.

Jason:
[43:52] Yes I’m familiar with those dilemmas I also really struggle with fabric because his company is called Fabric and then there’s another company called fabric that make micro fulfillment centers for grocery e-commerce.
If you like you can have two companies with the same name in roughly the same space.

Scot:
[44:08] I give him.
Entrepreneur credit because he raised a boatload of money when valuations were super high which was smart if it’s enough to get through to the from the peak through the valley to the next week so we’ll see how it goes for.

Jason:
[44:25] I’m knocking on wood you just can’t hear it because I’m such a good audio editor.

[44:39] It’s kind of your historical average right now I don’t know I’m.

Scot:
[44:42] Usually do better than half yeah it.

Jason:
[44:43] You’ve done better actually I think that’s a down year for you I think it’s up here for me and a down here for you.

Scot:
[44:48] Post covid it’s hard to predict what the what’s going on in the world.

Jason:
[44:53] And and as we have learned doing five years of these as hard as it is to predict something happens it’s also timing is so tricky like very often we predicted something just in the wrong year.

Scot:
[45:04] Yeah I gave up on Amazon competes with the other shippers and that one still I still think it’s coming.

Jason:
[45:10] Hundred percent there’s a weird cognitive bias where like after you’ve been wrong once or twice you hate to predict it again even though it probably would be smart the.

Scot:
[45:18] Yeah yep.

Jason:
[45:20] I’m with you all right well let’s see if I can hang with you at all.

Scot:
[45:21] Alright let’s see how you did yeah
so your first prediction was you love web 3 you’re going to mortgage your house put all your money in FTS and this token that you were super excited about that was going to the mood called FTX how’d that work out for you.

Jason:
[45:40] It worked out better for Michael investor Tom Brady than it did for me.

Scot:
[45:44] Well I don’t know he’s in pretty rough rough time right now.

Jason:
[45:49] Neither of us are having our best years.

Scot:
[45:50] Butts.

Jason:
[45:53] I’ll be different reasons but I feel like you might have slightly misstated the spirit of my prediction.

Scot:
[45:59] Oh yeah I misread this so it says in FTS web 3 meta 15-minute delivery will be Duds less and ft dollar transactions will happen in 21 verses 22.

Jason:
[46:12] Yeah so I was down I didn’t think any of those things would be a big deal this year I guess one of those kind of overlap with you because you also didn’t think instant delivery would be a big deal.
And I don’t think any of them were a big deal we’ve covered them pretty exhausted lie but in order to make this a fair prediction I tried to put something that was more measurable and so I said in Ft transactions will be down in 2022 from 2021 and.
I got to be honest I looked it up before the show and so the good news is I’m right.
In Ft transactions gmv for an ftes and in the u.s. in 2021 was 25 billion 25 Point 1 billion and this year it was twenty four point seven billion so just barely down and I have to be honest,
I feel like I dodged a bullet because.
The way you buy an mft is with a cryptocurrency and the two main cryptocurrencies are each less than half their value.
From the beginning of the year and so you would think like,
in Ft transaction should be way down just because the value of the underlying currencies is way down but you know apparently like despite the fact that it’s not a mainstream thing it grew enough that I was I almost ended up being.
Wrong on my on my number but that’s a long-winded way of saying I feel like that’s a yes.

Scot:
[47:32] Got it
cool so we’ll give you a yes prediction to here in North Carolina we call it Sheen you fancy City people call it she in your prediction was that they would do over 30 billion more than double the previous year so since we’re a year
off so you predicted in 2022 they would double a guest from 2020 1.15 billion
you check this close and I do so I’m gonna have you self-regulate this one.

Jason:
[48:00] Yes I nailed it like almost to the penny except that you know they’re not a public company so we don’t we don’t really know the revenue but that
estimates for for 20 21 where 15 billion so I predicted 30 billion in 2022
they did a raise in March or may of May of 2022 and they disclosed during that raised that halfway less than halfway through the year they were already at 16 billion in Revenue,
year to date,
so I was tracking really well and they’re doing another raised right now as we speak and their side note taking a ginormous haircut on that race so the,
the May raise was that a hundred billion dollar valuation the razor trying to do right now is it 64 billion,
um but they disclosed in the in the deal docks for this raise that they finished the year at 30 billion which is,
means that their sales significantly decelerated in the second half of the year but it means my prediction was exactly right.

Scot:
[49:04] Very good congrats on that one.

Jason:
[49:06] Yeah and we could be out of time and not do the other other predictions if you want.

Scot:
[49:10] Well there’s one country showing let’s jump into this one
so your third prediction was buy now pay later which we call B and P L is going to lose momentum it had 29 percent growth and 21 and you said it would slow to sub 15 and 22.

Jason:
[49:28] Yeah and so it depends on exactly what math you’re using but the actual growth rate in 2022 is 48.6% so is that is that more or less than 15.

Scot:
[49:39] I find that hard to believe.

Jason:
[49:41] I do too I was surprised.

Scot:
[49:44] Yeah no I think I’m gonna give you this one because you know the stocks on all these are down clar NE is on life support and I don’t know I feel like these guys the the largest,
kind of tie up was Peloton and buy now pay later and you know Peloton is had a really rough go of that in 22 and took all you know down the biggest buy now pay later operator with a firm so
I feel like he just was a yes.

Jason:
[50:17] Okay well I’m not gonna argue with you I feel like they got a lot of,
negative momentum for a variety of reasons in in 2022 and right now we’re seeing their valuations go way down because their default rates are starting to go up and what I’m noticing is,
they’re all trying to Pivot out of buy now pay later into other,
other retail services but like depending on how much of a stickler you might be like they still apparently sold a lot of stuff on buy now pay later last.
I’ll take the yes or at least I’ll take a half a yes.

Scot:
[50:48] I’ll give you the win but I’ll scold you for bad predicting like never get specific with percentages.

Jason:
[50:53] I know I know well I was I feel like so many people make these like lame predictions that I was trying to be super specific but I agree that was that was dumb alright thanks man you should great all my stuff.

Scot:
[51:02] Now this next one is kind of a Whopper so this is this is kind of my favorite so you predicted Amazon would open 100 grocery stores how’s that one going.

Jason:
[51:15] It’s great they opened one store and that store opened 365 times.
But if you’re doing store count.
I missed it pretty substantially that I think they have 44 stores in the US and 17 stores in the UK so well short of 100,
the end and I’m way less optimistic that they’re going to invest in that that concept,
now than I was a year ago when I made this prediction so that’s definitely a no the only fun fact is compared to any other retail Concept in Amazon this one did pretty well because they literally closed every other one,
and they’re they’re laying off a ton of the retail people like right now as we speak unfortunately so.
So I think that’s a clear no it does not seem like the immediate future for Amazon is in brick and mortar.

Scot:
[52:07] Yeah yeah they’ve really pulled in the horns on that one.

Jason:
[52:11] Fun fact then this means nothing no one should interpret this but Amazon close their bookstores in 2022 and Barnes and Noble was opening new book store some joint too so I think there was a time when we would have said that could never happen.

Scot:
[52:25] Yeah one of these is not going to be going well
okay your last prediction was that last you there would be a last mile delivery acquisition of some kind you mentioned instacart v0x delivery and ship iam.

Jason:
[52:41] Yeah and none of them were acquiring so I think,
I miss this I mean if you go deep cut enough I found there’s a couple like four million dollar transactions that happen but none of the name ones did anything there they did some fundraising the the premise behind this,
this prediction last year was,
that one of the ways that a lot of e-commerce sites deliver packages is not exclusively through FedEx UPS in u.s. post office,
that increasingly they’re using a Federation of a bunch of small last-mile companies and that often there’s a middle man that’s helping aggregate all those small a smile companies that make it easier to ship with them,
and so my thought was that’s becoming a more important.

[53:27] Part of the e-commerce echo system that somebody’s going to try to make a big play there and kind of roll some of them up or acquire some of them and and you know kind of add them together and make something more valuable,
um and it didn’t happen last year and what’s interesting is,
Fedex rates and UPS rates are going way up this year like one of the conversations I had with a lot of e-commerce sites,
last year was that their last mile costs are going up at an untenable rate so this.
This methodology is becoming more important and more popular so this is a classic example,
if I were smart I should probably take this this prediction and double down again on it for this year but spoiler alert I did not do that I just took the no and I moved on.

Scot:
[54:12] All right so out of your five you had sixty percent so you had three correct and to wrong so you you win the year so congratulations
you get the virtual trophy you get an mft,
ironically you get the nft the Jason Scott exclusive one of one in Ft.

Jason:
[54:38] I’m super excited about that for all our listeners I only accept in ft’s that are minted on proof of stake blockchains I don’t accept proof-of-work blockchains because they’re an ecologically.

Scot:
[54:51] So it’s Solana for you all right I know we’re Up Against Time the shows always go a little long so I’m going to kind of lightning round my predictions for 2023.

[55:15] All right so number one Amazon uses the this 2022,
perceived setback that I think’s way overblown you kind of mentioned it at the top and,
I think what’s going to happen is sure e-commerce is going to revert to the mean but under the hood I feel like they’re going to be taking share at a really aggressive clip,
the reason to borrow on shipping the selection of things that are near you is going up,
I have through my day job I can see that they are making a lot of good changes with last mile delivery they’re still putting a lot of effort into that and improving it and making it better all the time so
so basically I think they’re going to you know if I have to,
get a little more specific I think they’re going to take a fair amount of share in 2023 from the rest of e-commerce so they already are like
more than half of e-commerce and I think they grab a chunk so that’s kind of how I would measure this is what percentage of e-commerce Amazon has and I think they’re going to take,
pretty good chunk.

Jason:
[56:19] I like it cool.

Scot:
[56:20] That’s my first one number two is I think Shopify is going to be acquired you know so I think they’re doing this headless thing the first party piece hurts them and a lot of
you know Facebook so that’s a natural Binding Together they’re there we’re going to talk about it in a future show but they’re kind of they have never really executed on this idea of a Marketplace
they’ve had a lot of weird cultural things where they talked about getting rid of meanings and then like their hole.
Admin interface was down for days it feels like something’s going on they’ve had a lot of people a lot of turnover they’ve gone totally virtual I’m not a fan of that I think it’s hard to be super Innovative and have to whatever the world changes have to hop on a DSM calls to figure out
what everyone’s thinking so I think
I think they’re they definitely we’ve hit Peak Shopify probably you know in 2021 and this is when it starts to be time maybe some people say hey this wouldn’t be a bad time to to tap out here,
we’ll see.

Jason:
[57:24] Wow that’s awesome one just quick curiosity one problem is the valuation like while it’s gone down a lot is still pretty high like so the pool of acquirers is pretty small or are you thinking the valuations going to keep going down low enough that there’s.
That more people might take a shot at it.

Scot:
[57:42] Yeah I think I think even at this valuation there’s probably three or four acquirers and I think the valuation could go down further.

Jason:
[57:48] All right cool I like I love the big bold ones.

Scot:
[57:51] Yeah you’re going to hate this next one so this one is where everyone thinks AI is hype I’m thinking there’s going to be a big innovation we don’t see it from these new AI engines specifically right now the state of the artist G PT 3,
I know people have seen GPT for and they all can’t express enough how game-changing it’s going to be so I think there’s going to be something in the e-commerce world not
this is like so it has to be kind of a big idea so I can’t be just like a chatbot or like another recommendation engine but I think there’s gonna be something kind of,
big here that’s hard,
it’s so different that it could be hard to I can’t tell what it’s going to be but I think something big is going to happen here that kind of makes our heads explode so that’s my prediction that we actually see a really,
disruptive piece of technology kind of AI that impacts the e-commerce world.

Jason:
[58:47] Okay I like it I don’t have a other than it’s going to be higher so you hard to measure but I guess we’ll know it when we see it.

Scot:
[58:56] Yeah.
Yeah and then since we’ve got great each other gives you a lot of fodder to push against ich number for e-commerce is going to accelerate back so I think
and the first half will have these recessionary wins
I’m a eternal optimist you’re typically on the pessimist I think we’ll have a soft Landing maybe we don’t have much of a recession and then in the back half will be kind of through this post covid Hayes hopefully I think
part of this prediction in Furs that inflation will will kind of get under control and we’ll see e-commerce
go back to kind of its average growth rate which has been historically 15 percentage so that’s my prediction there.

Jason:
[59:38] Okay yeah I think they’re a bunch of people that are like kind of e-commerce growth is tapped out which is I think they’re wildly wrong so I certainly take the bullish side of that one for you.

Scot:
[59:50] Yeah and then this one I have to give props to my daughter I was she was looking over my shoulder and I was doing these and she said I have one and I said you don’t understand the stakes I’ve got to be Jason because I did bad this year and she said
I don’t care I’m 16 and I spend a lot of time at Sephora and Ulta this is her speaking not me
I also do because I’m with her but now she can drive so I’m spending less time there and I think they’re going to come out with some kind of a subscription model so,
there you go I don’t know any specifics but that is her hot take.

Jason:
[1:00:21] Okay and and by that you don’t mean they’re going to transition their whole business to a subscription you mean they’re going to add some kind of subscription offering okay.

Scot:
[1:00:28] Yeah yeah and you know I was thinking you know what was that one there was a box that was Beauty used Beauty Box every over the name of that.

Jason:
[1:00:38] Yeah there.

Scot:
[1:00:39] I don’t think I made it yeah and I said you mean like that.

Jason:
[1:00:43] Box is that what.

Scot:
[1:00:44] Birchbox well very good man yeah old school way to pull that one out
and she said no it’ll be more like I can go to the store and they’ll I can I can pick up kind of like they’ll pull stuff for me that comes in and I could just go to the store and it’ll be already there for you.
To understand.

Jason:
[1:01:05] Clarifying question because far be it for me like I want to learn to like and your daughter certainly have the future behavior that neither of us understand yet.
Is she thinking like that in the same way that Birchbox was kind of a discovery thing she’s thinking this is some kind of.
Discovery thing of new products because I actually think Sephora already has a like you know if you use this amount of moisturizer will automatically send you a new thing a moisturizer every three months.

Scot:
[1:01:35] This was tied more to influence your site so I think there’s these influencers and they each have kind of staked out you know there
each store has a set of influencers and I think she’s starting to see them come out with seasonal products kind of like a yeah and I think that it’ll be a subscription to that kind of thing.

Jason:
[1:01:52] That makes total sense that would be new and I.
Could seem cool a lot of the traditional subscriptions lately have not done as well as some of us might have expected but so yeah this this will be interesting kind of like the next gen of those Discovery boxes.

Scot:
[1:02:09] One thing I did notice in my last six I think this is for they have a end cap that says inspired by Tick-Tock and it’s always empty.
And as estimate I was like are they she’s like oh every time they put something there so I was up and I was like wow that’s pretty amazing.

Jason:
[1:02:28] The Tik Tok made me buy it in cap.

[1:02:38] I’m 100% with you social commerce is a thing and it’s mostly not about people ordering stuff on Tick Tock it’s about people discovering stuff on Tick Tock and then buying it from Sephora.

Scot:
[1:02:47] I know I was trying to get some partial credit.

Jason:
[1:02:51] Yeah I like it though all right I think those are great.

Scot:
[1:02:54] And then in the spirit of my third prediction which was a I will change the world I actually asked chatgpt to make a prediction and it said.

Chatgpt:
[1:03:04] Based on Trends and current developments in e-commerce it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry with an emphasis on mobile Commerce.
Personalized shopping experiences and increased use of Technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality.
Additionally there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce.

Scot:
[1:03:30] And when it said that I was thought I thought you were punking me I thought you were on the other side of the chat because I was like that’s exactly what someone at publicist would say.
Someone with a really long title like eight words that’s the exact kind of synergistic linguistic word salad that they would they would throw out.

Jason:
[1:03:52] Yeah there’s nothing super tangible in there but it sounds really good That’s a classic chatgpt answer.

Scot:
[1:03:58] So one way my my one prediction could come true as if you’re replaced by an AI so I’ll just I’m not that’s not a prediction is just one way I could cheat my prediction.

Jason:
[1:04:08] So fun fact is some people know I have a Forbes column and my my most recent Forbes article was about the demise of e-commerce being overhyped.
Often I read those articles from scratch myself sometimes I write an outline or a first draft and I send it to a pupusas copywriter and they send me back a first draft and then I edit it and.
When I do that I have to do a lot of work because of the copywriters are really talented writers and use proper English and I’m really.
Less sophisticated so to put it in my.
In my voice I have to change it a lot so this most recent Forbes article I had chatgpt writer and I said write a Forbes article in the voice of Jason Goldberg that has this title and makes these Five Points.
Um and so it didn’t really do any research for me it didn’t like pick any of the answers because I gave it all the answers in my prompt and the data I wanted to support it.
It was kind of like I handed it my outline and had it right the first draft in my voice and it was way closer to exactly what I wanted then the ones I get from the copywriter so I probably will never write a first draft from scratch again.

Scot:
[1:05:25] Does that mean that copywriters going to lose their job.

Jason:
[1:05:28] No she’s gonna move to higher value stuff from now the actual smart people to do some good with proper English.

Scot:
[1:05:36] Unrelated we going to have a new new podcast host.

Jason:
[1:05:42] The yeah that we’re way over on time but like the the really scary one is these awesome avatars that can make,
I can learn your voice and then sound perfectly like your voice are now out in the wild from several companies including Adobe and,
and I conveniently have 3:00 of my own voice and your voice on wreck so I think I can make the two of us say anything we.

Scot:
[1:06:07] Yep I think again.

Jason:
[1:06:09] Awesome all right well those all seem like good predictions that seems like you have a very viable chance of coming back and getting your nft trophy back for me,
I will whip through mine,
I suffered greatly because we are recording this late I wrote my predictions of the beginning of the year and I said Party City and Bed Bath and Beyond are going to declare bankruptcy,
and unfortunately pretty soon declared bankruptcy yesterday in Bed Bath and Beyond hasn’t cleared yet but they’ve announced publicly that there,
they’re likely to so I can’t really use that prediction but I’m going to say that there are going to be at least two other retail bankruptcies besides Party City in the in the space this year,
um you know I think Bed Bath and Beyond is likely to declare bankruptcy but I also think we might see some of the kind of model-based apparel retailers or.
There’s a few other other retards I have my eye on so I do think we’re going to see a little bit of attrition in the kind of traditional brick-and-mortar retailers.
Um so I’m starting off with a positive note.

Scot:
[1:07:16] So retailers go out of business you win all right.

Jason:
[1:07:20] Yes that’s I’m yes I’m betting on.
The second one I’m in a way doubling down on my buy now pay later I wasn’t sure you were going to give me credit for last year so.
If they were hurt and swelling down last year I think at least one of them has to go away this year so like I’m not sure anybody goes away via a.
An actual bankruptcy but I could see a roll up or merger or acquisition of some of these guys so I’m saying at least one of the top four,
Kleine a firm after pay or says they’ll don’t don’t exist as a standalone entity at the end of 2020.

Scot:
[1:08:02] I think that’s pretty pretty safe.

Jason:
[1:08:07] All right in full disclosure I had a really unsafe prediction there that I changed to this.
My third prediction may be opposite of you you think shopify’s gonna struggle I’m I don’t necessarily disagree with that it’s interesting to think they might have peaked last year,
um but a offering that they haven’t made that they’re crazy to not make and I am pretty I’ll be shocked if I don’t see this year is.
We see some kind of,
aggregated retail media network from Shopify so you’re one of the million stores on Shopify you can opt into showing ads,
on your store and advertisers instead of having to buy ads from Individual stores that would all be too small and scale to be meaningful,
can buy ads from a aggregated Shopify interface that then.
Get distributed to all those sites like very similar to like Google AdWords but in the Shopify echo system.
Every other retailers kind of monetizing their traffic,
we’ve seen some other products now we’re shopify’s aggregating stores so there’s that shop app there’s now an aggregated search in that so I just think it’s a no-brainer that Shopify to try to defend themselves from,
from Amazon that’s making a fortune on retail media networks is going to try to launch an ad product in 2020.

Scot:
[1:09:33] Yeah we have a guest coming up a little bit of a tease what we call in the podcast Biz at ease we have a really interesting guest that’s going to talk about an R MN.

Jason:
[1:09:45] I love it will conveniently I feel like they come up somewhat in my next prediction as well which I think in in aggregate metal Google and Tick-Tock lose advertising Revenue in 2023.
Um so we’ve talked a lot about the the negative,
mobile privacy impacts on meta and Google Tick-Tock has actually been the most robust fastest growing,
platform of the of the traditional social media networks and 2022,
but I actually think they’re going to run into more and more concerns about the Chinese ownership and these like partial bands and all that sort of notes and there’s a lot of new,
opportunities for advertisers to spend their money so I think these retail media networks are starting to take real dollars Microsoft launched a retail media Network,
at NRF last week and there are new social media networks that you may be familiar with through your kids but that most adults working our industry have never heard of,
that are now getting quite large and out and growing more rapidly than the tick-tocks of the world and that’s things like be real,
um I think by the time at all Nets out I think the big three met a Google and Tik-Tok have less less share of the add digital ad space,
next year than they did this.

Scot:
[1:11:08] Kumar you big on be real.

Jason:
[1:11:11] I am not because it wouldn’t be real for a over-aged dude to be on be real.

Scot:
[1:11:18] Okay good so you are.

Jason:
[1:11:21] Be kind of creepy.

Scot:
[1:11:21] By not being on beer.

Jason:
[1:11:22] Exactly the way for me to be realized to stay far away from it but I like to watch age appropriate people that are using it,
and then my fifth prediction there’s a little salt in the Scott was wrong about live streaming is that live stream e-commerce still won’t be meaningful in 2023.
So and I’ll make it like slightly more measurable going back to my that stupid way to predict in the future comment from earlier so last evening still isn’t going to be 5% of social commerce Revenue next year.
For all the reasons already talked about like it’s an itch it.

[1:12:02] There’s a great use case which is 121 Commerce as sales people helping people in their home that’s a live streaming I think there’s Collectibles and Flash sales and you know some of QVC is live streaming stuff like that but there’s not going to be enough to really move the needle,
and I think marketers would be a lot smarter to be investing in in social discovery and the influencers that your daughter is talking about at Sephora,
then they would be to make a live streaming product in 2023 and I did not have chat gbt make any of my prediction so I thought just for fun.
Right if I were Scag Scott Galloway what would my,
my big shocking prediction be and I thought because he likes to do contrarian things and so my foe bonus prescription some predictions,
is that Jeff Bezos comes back to take over Amazon this year.

Scot:
[1:12:55] Yeah that’s he’s really dropped off the radar I may not be tracking it but I haven’t really heard from him for a while he was last seen on a boat in a bathing suit.

Jason:
[1:13:03] Midlife crisis and I feel like it’s almost over I feel like the stock would get a big bonus if he came back he handed the reals rains 2nd jassy on a specific day in May which was the anniversary of when Amazon was founded,
and so I think it wouldn’t be surprising to see him maybe not like.
Show Vandy Jesse out but maybe he comes back as CEO and Andy keeps the president title or something like that.

Scot:
[1:13:32] This is what Bob Iger did it doesn’t he kind of gave the reins to his dude left and then did nothing about talk bad about him and then the first sign of weakness came in and kicked him to the curb so that’s you know it’s good for the ego it could be part of this midlife crisis.

Jason:
[1:13:45] No I do think that was inspired by Disney I will say.
Jeff and Andy seem way less acrimonious and more collaborative so I don’t think it would have that same I picked you as my successor and now I’m going to stab you in the back and take my job back from you kind of vibe.
I did see an interview with Andy Jesse shortly after that Disney thing and the interviewer joked he said you seem like you’re a lot safer than Bob Iger.
We have certainly lived up to our reputation as being long-winded we’re a little bit over time but this is a super fun episode we’ll put all the predictions in the notes so you can you can see them if you don’t want to listen to the whole thing
and I’ll put a note up front that if folks want to jump the skipper first 30 minutes of updates and banner and get right to the predictions that you can do that as well,
so I want to thank everyone again for putting the time in and all the other great comments and feedback we got at the show but you know if you could do us one extra favor and write some of those great comments and feedback you gave to me live,
in a iTunes review we would certainly appreciate it.

Scot:
[1:15:00] Yeah and thanks everybody we appreciate you staying tuned for our predictions would love to hear your predictions tweet them to us LinkedIn Facebook or for Jason you can be real at him and he’ll watch someone else read that and until next time...

Jason:
[1:15:16] Happy comercing!

Jan 6, 2023

EP300 - GoodwillFinds CEO Matt Kaness

In this interview, we cover the sale of ModCloth to Walmart, Matts's subsequent work at Lucky Brand and Afterpay, and his new role as CEO at Goodwillfinds.

Goodwillfinds.com is an e-commerce site, which sells previously owned merchandise, which has been donated to Goodwill. We cover many of the tactical challenges (onboarding SKUs, product content, fulfillment, and curation), as well as the opportunities of this new "CircularCommerce" space. We also get some of Matt's predictions about what's coming next in digital commerce.

Episode 300 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday January 4th, 2023.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

Episode 300 is an interview with Matt Kaness, CEO of Goodwillfinds.com. Matt was formerly on episode 79, when he was CEO of Modcloth, which later sold to Walmart.

Transcript

Jason:
[0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is the much-anticipated episode number 300 being recorded on Wednesday January 4th,
20:23 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo.

Scot:
[0:41] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners
Jason not only is this the first show of 20:23 it's a big milestone for us with episode
what better way to celebrate than having one of our oldest friends for both you and I personally but also to the show back for an update Matt
kaness he was last on the show back in episode 79 I think many listeners will remember that one and certainly your mom who's one of our biggest fans and back then he was CEO of ModCloth,
a lot has changed since then so we're looking forward to getting an update some of the highlights Matt help sell ModCloth to Walmart he was exact chair and interim CEO at Lucky Brand he's on several boards
yeah I've been advisory to several companies and since September of 2022 he has been CEO of goodwillfinds.com Matt welcome back to the show.

Matt:
[1:35] Great to be here guys thanks for having me.

Jason:
[1:38] Oh my gosh Matt we are really excited to catch up it seems like if you factor in the pandemic your last episode was about 15 years ago
if I'm
and so happy I'm happy to report we've added a bunch of listeners since then so before we jump into it can you kind of remind the listeners about your background and how you got in e-commerce.

Matt:
[2:02] Yeah have you too I like to think about my career or having two careers to date the first one was,
very foundational for what I'm doing now but very quantitative,
process-oriented mechanical engineering patent law Manufacturing,
Ops Consulting things that had nothing to do with retail or fashion or e-commerce and then I.

[2:32] Fell into the category when I was a full-time consultant at Burton Snowboards about 16 17 years ago,
and fell in love with lifestyle Brands and have,
try to stay in that lane for the majority of that time period since,
from Burton Snowboards I went onto Urban Outfitters was there for close to eight years up sensibly and I had a growth roll my last title there was Chief strategy officer and then from there I went to ModCloth,
where I was the CEO for three years and was running the company when we sold it to Walmart I will say that,
I've been in hindsight found myself attracted to these amazing consumer lifestyle brands,
that are experiencing inflection points either in their business or in the industry when I was at Burton snowboarding was really for the first time finding a mass audience crossing over into,
the Olympics the next games and,
when I was at Urban it was the rise of Web 2.0 and I got to ride that wave my entire time there and really,
I'll be on the Forefront of pioneering you know what everybody know of calls omni-channel.

[3:59] ModCloth the founder of their Susan Koger was one of the pioneers of inclusive fashion and so I felt personally accountable to try to scale that and I think we,
if once the industry specifically plus size women's fashion and you know today you look around and it's become pretty normative,
for Brands to design into extra extra small to 4X and I'm really proud of the work we did at ModCloth being on the front end of that and then.
I do some Consulting work at after pay where buy now pay later was really just becoming a thing,
we're younger consumers were focused more on debit versus credit products so with really fortunate to get connected with that team and enjoyed,
partnering with them and being an advisor and then you know what I'm doing now at Goodwill where secondhand is really having a moment,
in the culture and getting a chance to come in and lead a ground-up startup for the Goodwill Network and helping them to.
It's a digitized so to speak and you bring this new Marketplace into the world,
it's just for me it's like the next chapter in that really fortunate career second career that I've had.

Jason:
[5:23] Very cool and I know some of those roles were Bay Area based but you are a Philly guy correct.

Matt:
[5:29] Philly guy born and raised I'm probably on the short list of people who have moved back to Philly twice.
I was in Boston the first time when my wife became.
Preggers with our oldest and we wanted to be closer to family and then the second time was when we were in the Bay Area after I left Walmart,
we had a break in the action and our oldest was about to start high school and we decide we want to be back here.
For the high school years but we've lived all around and I'd obviously travel a lot for work so I have an affinity for the bay area as well as some other places around the country but but Phillies the hometown.

Jason:
[6:14] Yeah but I'm assuming it's Philly sports teams most importantly.

Matt:
[6:18] I have been an eagle season ticket holders 2000 yes.

Jason:
[6:23] Awesome and for people that don't know Philadelphia and Pennsylvania as a whole is a is is a weird e-commerce concentration Point like there's a lot of e-commerce kind of
was born or gravitated in the area so I think of like Mark Rubin and Dick's Sporting Good and in Pittsburgh and urban obviously was a huge player there
was Urban your first like hardcore e-commerce experience or were you doing a lot of e-commerce at Burton.

Matt:
[6:56] I was not at Burton Urban is really where I started to cut my teeth on e-commerce.
Direct to Consumer more than e-commerce it was really about this when I got there this billion dollar Consolidated Enterprise across there are three main brands,
Urban Outfitters anthropology and Free People and the business had started as a catalog,
division of what was you know let's call it 95 percent of the sales came through their store Channel.
For retail versus direct to Consumer and so when I got there or there was a there was a.

[7:43] 100 million Consolidated direct-to-consumer business which was split between catalog and e-commerce,
but it was nascent it was not a strategic focus and then you know the founder of their dick ain't really had.
This put a natural understanding of consumer behavior and where the industry was going and he had a vision for how to scale the business multi-channel and so we were all,
trying to make that that future reality every day for the eight years I was there and we had a lot of success going back to your point about Pennsylvania and Philly first round capital,
one of their there I believe their original headquarters and then one of their major offices,
is in Philly and so I think I think a lot of it stems from their presence as well not just decaying and Reuben and some others,
but also Philly from a talent perspective is kind of like a six suburb or borough of New York,
where you get a lot of folks in New York and then they realize that.
It's just the standard of living the cost of living is so much better in Philadelphia and so you get a lot of transplants to come down to Philly as well working in e-commerce.

Jason:
[9:11] Yeah and I want to say I met you I think we all met on the shop dot-org board when you were at Urban later in your your tenure Urban and some of my Fondest Memories
another good friend of the show Billy met who at the time was at Abercrombie is the two of you like heckling each other about like your two brands.

Matt:
[9:34] Yeah like that was that was really fun for me because you know Urban.
Um was pretty insular you meaning that we were so obsessively focused on the customer,
and on the fashion trends and on what we were doing internally,
that we never really thought about competition so we didn't spend a ton of time looking around the industry,
so for me that was that was kind of a an introduction to what else was happening across the industry and then Billy occasionally would call me and say.
Hey you guys make me look bad because you just had another great quarter ecomp rowing and you know your your results are now The Benchmark that I have to deliver against.
But you know what I what I found in that shop or Community which is now part of NRF,
is that it was not very competitive it was very collaborative I couldn't believe.

[10:46] How much everybody support each other and wanted to share strategies and ideas and Etc and I think that's one of the things that really drew me into this career path on the digital Commerce side,
versus pursuing merchandising or.
We're kind of the brick-and-mortar offline space is it's just how,
how great that the digital Community has been in the US that I've experienced so that's one of the one of the things that I try to do now is to make sure that.
Making myself available I'm kind of giving back and spending time with folks and helping them along and sharing ideas because I know that you guys and others certainly do that for me way back in the day.

Jason:
[11:32] Yeah I feel like we all have done that for each other and I feel like we've all obviously benefited greatly from that community,
and so then you leave the Eagles behind and you go join what at the time was a Founder led a venture back pure-d to see is that,
a fair characterization for Vermont cough if when you.

Matt:
[11:58] Yes my father my father is a pure pointy Taylor yeah.
Like 10,000 uniques on the site all third party.
The company was vertically integrated so homegrown Ruby on Rails codebase e-commerce.
Order management system warehouse management system all the way down to the call center and the warehouse it was,
um pretty pioneering on the web services side as far as.

[12:35] Look it was an early social commerce player as far as leveraging Pinterest and things that you could do with.
Facebook and some of the other platforms Tumblr to engage customers and get them to participate in the shopping experience we were one of the first to integrate,
ugc from customers into the shopping experience into the carousels on the website,
um we had personalization that was driven by customer reviews that were captured in the website versus outsourced to a bizarre Voice or the like so it was the technology is pretty pioneering,
the business was was very underdeveloped and the brand I felt was.
Had a lot of opportunity to broaden its appeal when I got there so it was a little bit of a turnaround,
financially what I'm joined which having now done this a few times there's always a reason they bring in an outside CEO.

Jason:
[13:44] It's not because things are just going awesome and they just want to share the awesomeness.

Matt:
[13:47] Yeah I can't I can't think of a single time that CEO in a business that's humming and doing great he says you know what let's bring in somebody else to do this so I.

Jason:
[13:57] I think Andy jassy is saying that about Amazon right now by the way.

Matt:
[14:02] Yeah yeah yeah what I mean there's there's a there's a lot of chatter about looking at.
It was on the Facebook and Tesla and what those Founders were doing the last couple years selling stock so I think they kind of all knew what was about to happen.
But you know just quickly on ModCloth I'll say that you know we were able to quickly come in.

[14:32] Turn around the business financially but more importantly we pivoted it to what then was called a DM BB model,
a digitally native vertical brand model which was just meant that the vertical piece that you were procuring designing selling your own product or exclusive product versus,
third party which you know in the world of Amazon it's really hard to scale a business that you know what you're selling you can find on Amazon or other larger marketplaces,
so we build out a design studio and sourcing operation weary platform the entire Tech stack we developed,
a showroom concept similar to what we're being bonobos had developed and tested that and rolled that out and had a really aggressive growth plan against that we went out to raise money and her wound up,
getting an offer from the team at jet.com that 6-month previous had,
I've been sold to Walmart and they came in and made an offer and the board accepted it and so we sold it.
And and I stayed on at Walmart for a year and oversaw our integration into that that ecosystem.

Scot:
[15:51] Cool the that was kind of a chain reaction right where you guys several companies they Acquired and did you play a role in kind of that roll up.

Matt:
[16:01] We were like the third or fourth of six or seven Acquisitions and they did within a year and a half two year period.
And then as part of my year there I did get involved in some of their business development MMA,
conversations and and I did spend a little bit of time helping them,
on one of the further Acquisitions but you know they what I learned about Walmart when I was there is.
They have such a strong culture they have a real clear view of who their customer is and why they're serving them and you know I would tell you that.
The Acquisitions that spray that they went on those two years was really a catalyst for.
Something that W Mellon said at a meeting that I attended where he talked about convenience.

[17:03] Being valued as much as low-cost in the kind of the online or multi-channel retail environment versus pre-internet,
and so they had to find a catalyst under Mark Lori to accelerate their the cultural change,
to understand how customers writ large were valuing convenience as much as low-cost when their Heritage had been,
Yoda Point technology to make improvements in supply chain and sourcing and Merchandising so that they could always win on price now they had a win on price and convenience,
and so though the individual Acquisitions You could argue whether there was an Roi on them or not against the purchase price.
I would say that.
Internally it was a massive success in creating that kind of cultural change that Doug.
Mandated from.
Mark and and then you know I was only there a year and I left but just watching what progressed and if you look at the moldable on Walmart stock I think it's hard to argue that it wasn't a success.

Scot:
[18:18] Yes tricky with Acquisitions you can't just look at the you know the interior ModCloth business you have to look at the whole halo effect and the stock price yeah there's a multi-faceted way to look at these things that's kind of complicated.

Matt:
[18:32] Yeah I think any business that they could grow if you could grow organically in definitely I think most businesses would do that there's a reason why companies you know use MMA to your point.

Scot:
[18:46] Did some point I think I saw a ModCloth working to the stores where you there for that.

Matt:
[18:53] No no that I left before any of those kind of process integration initiatives occurred.

Scot:
[19:03] Yeah and then didn't they do they sell it back out do they spin it.

Matt:
[19:08] Yeah they sold it back out there were some after I left there were some further leadership changes that occurred and and they wound up the best thing it and selling it to I want to say it was a fermented New York.

Scot:
[19:23] Like a private Equity Firm or another.

Matt:
[19:24] Yeah I think so yeah.

Scot:
[19:28] Did you didn't want to jump in there and take it over again usually they call the previous CEO I bet there's an 80% chance you got a call.

Matt:
[19:37] No comment.

Scot:
[19:41] All right we found something you don't want to talk about good it's part of my goal on this show is to see if we can we can find that you have any family safe Mark Lori stories I've spent a fair amount of time with him he's a he's a pretty wacky dude.

Matt:
[19:56] I mean I didn't spend that much time working for him but I mean man like talk about somebody who just has total belief in himself and the team and what's possible,
and so much energy for.
For Commerce for startups for Innovation so I mean it's it was contagious working for him,
um working for his team's I wanted to takeaways I had for my time at Walmart and my time working with.

[20:32] With Mark and his jet team is I just didn't have that kind of passion for the mass-market the way that,
you had to have to be successful working at a Walmart or working at a jet before the acquisition,
yeah I love the specialty space I love you know the Branded premium space I love,
Yoda kind of the Middle Market where it's not based on price and it's not luxury it's somewhere in between.
I just find that that it's super creative there's lots of opportunities for differentiation.
There's always new things that you get to learn but you know Walmart I got there was a camera don't quote me on the exact number but.

[21:27] Like there was a conversation about like how many millions of American flags are they going to sell between Memorial Day and and.
And Fourth of July.

[21:38] On one of their promos and I was just like I couldn't even fathom the scale of having to move that many units and so,
yep so for me it was kind of a validation of the lane that I've been in and and enjoyed being in and so when I left.
Eventually wind up going to Lucky that was kind of part of the calculus on my part was to get back into the into that that category that Wayne of specialty.

Scot:
[22:07] My one of my first Mark Laurie experiences I was at Jet and he was telling us how the Company motto was billions or body bags and I was like that's kind of a weird way to motivate,
and then I talked to several employees I was like how do you like it here and there like billions of body bags that like they were just like it was a mantra like you know that they were just so focused on it was either going to be 0 or this huge outcome and sure enough it was billions.

Matt:
[22:31] Yeah there's there's definitely I mean I think think he was a successful High School athlete so there's definitely a lot of rah-rah with with him in the team it's that's not my personality I.
ModCloth one of the investors accused me of being two column in the boardroom.
They said you know Matt if you had slammed on the table a little bit more you know and I'm sitting there like like.
That's the that never crossed my mind trying to make an argument to do something required me slamming my hand on the table.

Scot:
[23:14] A tantrum yeah.

Matt:
[23:15] My voice yeah but maybe that's Versa tween you know a founder and yeah an operator.

Jason:
[23:23] Scot was definitely a table Slammer.

Matt:
[23:25] I don't believe you.

Scot:
[23:26] Like man I have an engineering background and they drummed that out of us in those four years.

Matt:
[23:33] Totally yeah I think you're right I think the scientific method does not allow for that that level of emotion that come into into the argument.

Jason:
[23:44] Yeah but I will say a lot of mechanical things can be fixed by hitting them with a hammer I will,
the so I'm super grateful that you guys didn't throw Mark Glory under the table because I at the moment have to totally pandor to him because his new business he has
Starbucks trucks that will drive to your house and deliver coffee to your house,
so I like I feel like I need to stay in his good graces,
but so so the sale happens you transition out of ModCloth you've you've got kids in college and or in school and no source of free clothing so I'm guessing that's what drove the,
you're interesting lucky brands.

Matt:
[24:28] Yeah well I got to say.
When I worked at Urban my wife definitely took advantage of the anthropology discount.

[24:43] And I act funny funny and true story,
when I was considering the opportunity at ModCloth I was having a couple other conversations in the in the fashion space.
And I showed my daughter who at the time was probably about seven or eight I showed her the apps for the shopping apps for,
the three businesses that I was talking to and I won't say who but there was one in particular based in La that she was like Dad no way she was like you cannot work selling that fashion.
But she approved of ModCloth and so so I got her endorsement so yeah when I went to Lucky it's really I wasn't necessarily looking.
You're back into fashion as much as I really thought that there was this route there's a unique opportunity with lucky they were.
Over a billion in gmv which is to say the direct to Consumer wholesale and the value of their licensing business in the market was over a billion dollars.
So brand revenues and net revenue is like call it 650 million and it was independent.

[26:08] And there were not a lot of businesses at that scale.
In the u.s. that still were independent versus part of a conglomerate.

[26:21] And we're had already gone public and so I had been friendly with one of the partners at Wintergreen.
Who called me about the opportunity and after spending some time with them talking about it I said.
You really need somebody in LA full time in the arts district where they were headquartered and I'm not moving to LA and moving actually back east and they said.
Hey would you come in and manage the company to get us through holiday while we won for somebody.
And also give us a strategy like a like a financial model a business case three-year strategy.
And so that's how I initially got involved there was more as like a board advisor interim manager and then.
By January of twenty I'd really seen this amazing Lane.
For an older Millennial younger Gen-X.
That we could reposition Lucky Brand to be a cause marketer the company did a tremendous amount of good work in Downtown LA taking.
Old Denim and.

[27:50] Giving it.
Nonprofits that work with the homeless population there for clothing to for installation.
And then other other efforts to help that population,
and so I felt like we could reposition lucky to not mean like going to the casino getting lucky but meaning gratitude.
Like I feel lucky I made it I have the ability to spend a hundred dollars in a pair of jeans and I want to support.

[28:27] This this amazing company that does all this good work and so.
That I had this vision for how you could reposition the brand the business was running like it was 2005 as far as.
Go to market so there was a lot of heavy lifting that had to be done around digital transformation around merchandising around.
Rationalizing the stores there was way too much discount so there's a lot of work to do,
but I got really excited about the opportunity and wound up agreeing to stay on as exact chair in January 2020.
And part of my remit would have been to hire a CEO and partner with that individual and I had to kill people in my network that I thought would be great for it who be willing to move to LA.
But two months later the covid walk down start.
And then it turned into something you know completely different than we were just trying to survive we lost ninety percent of our revenue and that April.
And we wound up.

[29:43] Making it through to July August that summer but at that point yeah the damage had been done and the private Equity Firm decided to.
Sell it to a party that had been interested in the business for a number of years which was authentic Brands group out of New York so I stayed on to oversee that process and then once the deal is done I.
Said that was a lot of work I'm exhausted and wound up turning down the opportunity to stay on with a b g and left but,
I got to say I'm really grateful thankful for the team that I had there because they were amazing,
to work with during such a difficult period that that Q2.
And early summer of 2020 it was it was really really challenging to be in the market and I learned a lot about myself as a leader from it.

Jason:
[30:46] Oh my gosh I I am sure you did
I'm laughing though because you think about all the work involved there and so you decided to do something easier in your next gig like
oh I don't know like starting from scratch business in the middle of a really old non-profit.

Matt:
[31:08] Well I gotta say you know after after the lucky experience.
Um I really felt drained I didn't have.
The passion for retail for e-commerce digital for.
Brands for fashion like I had for the previous you know well 15 years and.
I was fortunate that I have the ability to do this but I basically gave myself 2021 off.
I've been sitting on a few boards I did some Consulting work I had been Angel Investing for a few years so I had a number of startup Founders and CEOs that I was mentoring and Advising,
and I just said to myself I really need to get re-inspired I need to like,
get back out in the market broadly see what's happening see where the Innovation is occurring and and,
get excited but also get lucky because a lot of these things from a career perspective is based on timing I was really fortunate that.

[32:27] I went to Urban when I did I was really fortunate to be part of,
ModCloth the journey during the years that was there the year that I was at Walmart was a really critical year in the Amazon the Walmart Battle.
Um amazing timing too.
Be available to do Consulting work with the after pay the exact summer that the founder moved from Australia to San Francisco.
So you know I'm acutely aware that you can't control timing and,
and yet the kind of put yourself out there so that was my plan last year and in doing so what I realized was I'm like I get the most energy and I do my best work when,
back in the phase of a company where it's.

[33:22] Focused on growth and Innovation and so no more turnarounds the end of Lucky business was a turnaround.
ModCloth was a pseudo turn around,
so I just said you know I want to get back to you know that stage where it's really about solving for customer needs and Market positioning and Prague service Innovation and deploying technology,
and then a couple that with also wanted to get in a part of retail where I can learn.
And you know secondhand what's happening right now the this whole cultural phenomenon around thrifting,
and you're the pioneering work of a thread up and a real real Poshmark deep op-ed see ya the last decade,
that was the that was the heavy lifting you know those Founders you know basically creating the category,
but now there's a critical mass now there's a consumer acceptance so I don't see it as it as a,
as hard as maybe it looks like from the outside it's I think it's the timing is great for the Goodwill Network to Rally around this new platform for us.
As a separate entity to stand up this new company to launch this new Marketplace.

[34:48] There's definitely engineering challenges to figuring out how do you successfully profitably scale.
Um second-hand and vintage when you know every item is unique and we have a distributed model where our sellers are.
Various.
Goodwill members across the u.s. so we're not centralized so there's definitely some some challenges but to me that's part of the fun that's part of the learning.

Jason:
[35:18] I can imagine I want to take just half a step backwards to make sure the listeners are tracking with exactly what you're doing now because I think it's super interesting so,
formal title is CEO of goodwillfinds and goodwillfinds is a new offering from Goodwill that is
selling Goodwill Merchant previously owned Goodwill merchandise via a website is that the in my clothes.

Matt:
[35:44] Yeah yeah so I think it's worth kind of spelling out the context a little bit because it took me a little bit honestly to fully understand it and grasp it.
Goodwill has been around for over 100 Years everybody knows Goodwill it's an amazing nonprofit franchise.
There is a I call it a holding company I don't know that that's the right.
Firm but there is a parent company that owns the Goodwill Master license in Metro DC and they have.
License out the brand to I believe the numbers 155,
individual territories across the u.s. and each of those territories have,
Goodwill organization with their own leadership team their own operations around treasury their own board of directors obviously they vary in.
Size and location and specification and you know mix the revenue and all those things but they all share the same Mission and the mission a Goodwill is.

[36:57] To enhance lives for the Dignity of work,
and it's my older brother was born with a disability and I've watched him go on and off disability a few times in his life and I tell you,
that he's his best self when he's working.
So when I first got connected with the folks at Goodwill earlier last year it really touched my heart like I really.
I wanted this to be successful for them because I know how important their mission is but as I got to learn more about the network.

[37:37] Of 155 Goodwill's and more about the opportunity and there are six founding.
Good we'll see EOS that came together to organize this new separate entity called goodwillfinds where a virtual Delaware company.
And those six are the ones that are the board that I report to and they've been working on this for years they were,
ready to watch this last year and decided that they needed to hire a CEO,
to come in build a team set up the company oversee the launch so I joined pre-revenue and we're now in our fourth month of selling,
the consumer response has been.
Unbelievable sales are more than doubling month-over-month it's it's really.
A unique opportunity to build something that is not only.

[38:39] In a part of retail that is innovating and growing and scaling rapidly but it's also doing it for this amazing Mission and you know really trying to redefine what does.
Nonprofit in the circular economy look like to deliver social impact at scale so I feel like that's the Mandate that I signed up for and the team that I'm building.
And the business model that we're designing right now to go with the marketplace are the is the execution of that but the bigger Vision here is to create this platform that not only.

[39:24] Overtime all 155 Goodwill members will have access to be on as sellers but that.
For the first time we'll have decentralized marketing funnel brands.
Strategy content messaging 1p data and then.

[39:48] But technical roadmap that were able to deploy that will integrate with the store operations and the back of house operations that will allow for scared investments in technology that all the good wolf can take advantage of.
On the consumer side I think all the players and secondhand have the same goal which is to make the.

[40:10] The option to buy second-hand versus new so compelling and so convenient and so exciting and cool.
That more and more consumption dollars go towards second hand and move away from New and by,
doing that,
it has this incredibly measurable impact on the environment in creating sustainable.
Impact and then in our case you add to it.
The fact that every net dollar that we collect from our sales go back to the location where the Goodwill was the item was donated to fund the Goodwill programs I mean it's I feel like we're pioneering,
this new this new kind of business model for circularity and so all that to me is like super compelling super interesting,
and I'm really fortunate that this opportunity found me.

Scot:
[41:19] Cool hearing you talk about it I can tell you like to build stuff the channel visor we had a lot of customers that were kind of in this General space
the challenge with this use Consignment World Is You Gotta you know I'm sure these Goodwills are getting,
they're only going to sell online a fraction of what comes in so you got to figure out what
what things do you want to sell in the store versus online you gotta create digital assets which are the descriptions and the pictures and then you gotta you know imagine you're not going to send them to a central location so then you've got to
create a shipping method that works down at the store level how are you guys solving all those problems at scale.

Matt:
[42:00] Yeah well I'll tell you a couple of things and you're exactly right there's a ton of operational challenges we have a couple things going for us one.
These Goodwills already have the physical infrastructure they already have,
donation centers they already have Micro warehouses that are already selling online as a three-piece seller through Amazon and eBay and some other Regional marketplaces,
so they have a lot of these physical operations setup,
so we're leveraging that and we're not having to deploy Capital to do it.
That's 12 there's a there's a maturity in the technology vendor Market you'd be surprised at how many.
Providers are in the space to automate.
We have a partner that we work with that leverages Google Lens technology and Leverage is the Einstein a I was Salesforce that allows us to,
take a lot of the heavy lifting out of item creation we have vendors that we work with that.

[43:15] Take images of items three-dimensional scans that send it to and Outsource in India where descriptions are being written for these items you know so there's,
and I'm learning this right but you'd be shocked at how much software deployment automation deployment already exists.

[43:38] So we're managing that to deploy in a way that integrates into these existing operations at and.
The other thing that we have an advantage of is because we are nonprofit.

[43:53] We're selling primarily me exclusively right now but overtime will be primarily selling donated items which have.
Is this not a zero cost of goods but it's a near zero cost of goods.
So we have room in the margin line to play with value-added services on each item,
if we feel like there's a lift that we can justify with that you know with respect to photography with respect to.
Metadata on each of the items with respect to Howard thinking about tagging,
there's a lot there's a lot of players out there that we're evaluating right now and we watched with.

[44:42] Over 100,000 unique items back in the first week of October.
Mid-December we were at nearly 200,000 items.
And our roadmap is to have a million unique items in our active.
Catalog by October of this year so this entire endeavor.
Has been from the start designed for scale.
So we feel like that's giving us an advantage because we're able to do some things that,
other startups that are venture-backed that are having to start from scratch with a lot of that infrastructure that have a cost of sourcing and and Supply acquisition that we don't,
it would be financially prohibitive for them to make some of the Investments that we're making right now.

Scot:
[45:43] Yeah it's interesting to hear you say you're using some of the AI Jason's not a believer in AI but I'm a big proponent.

Jason:
[45:50] Haha I haven't said a word on this whole podcast I've just been using my AI Avatar.

Scot:
[45:57] Ugh.

Matt:
[45:58] For the record this isn't Matt talking this is Matt's chat TPT talking.

Jason:
[46:04] Yeah we tested both in the shed she'd Beatty was much more Salient so we went with that.

[46:17] Yeah so it's interesting to me mad because,
you mentioned a lot of the early Pioneers in our e-commerce and by the way just from buzzword Bingo like are you re Commerce person or you like do you have a favorite label for what you're doing now.

Matt:
[46:34] Yeah I'm.
I'm back in the the interview circuit right now trying to get the word out about what we're doing and promoting the Goodwill Mission so I'm still trying some phrases on I mean yeah RI Commerce is definitely.

[46:50] What.
The buzzword but I think what we're doing at goodwillfinds and and in partnership with the Goodwill network is really about circularity you know in my mind's eye.
Getting a Marketplace standing up a new Marketplace from the zero.
You know it's the old Beezus flywheel the back of the napkin that I think about every day and in my version of it their supply demand admission and without the mission we don't get supply.
And the better job we do partnering with our members sellers in acquiring the right Supply and and listing it.
In a high-quality way,
you know then that allows us to be able to meet demand in the market which the proceeds from those sales go right back to the Goodwill where we got the donation and there's the kind of the flywheels complete,
and one of the stories around that and this is what we have to do a better job.

[47:52] This year versus last year's to get these stories these amazing stories about the Goodwill Network out into the world,
the more successful we are Google finds meaning the more that we're able to sell and scale demand.
The more people each of the Goodwill sellers have to hire in their e-commerce operations.
Because they're doing the listings they're doing the pick pack and ship on the on the outbound but those jobs are higher skill and they and they pay better.
And so it actually accelerates the local mission.

[48:27] The more successful we are because they have to hire more people and bring more people and train them into these higher value jobs that then they go get placed somewhere else they can go work within.
The digital economy you know the digital retail industry and so we really I really think about what we're doing as pioneering circularity.
We also are talking to some retailers and Brands you want to partner with us on they're both on the demand and supply side and part of it is because we're a nonprofit that there's a tax,
right up Advantage for them but it's there's also this,
PSG component to the large corporates that they have to think about especially in,
in apparel where they had to think about you know what is their end to end environmental impact and.

[49:27] It's it's really I can't believe the timing of this but it's really a moment right now not just with consumers but in the industry and so that's another aspect of circularity where you have.
Yeah it's not Nike so but I'll just use them as an example to speak of Austria of Lee imagine Nike telling their full price customers.
That they can buy second-hand Nike at goodwillfinds.com.
Or imagine a Chanel it's not Chanel so I'll just use them electrically but imagine them.

[50:04] Wanting to use us as their authentication partner so that when you find second-hand should now at goodwillfinds.com versus a real real or somewhere else,
you can you can you know that you have this objective third-party authenticator that you can partner with to control,
the the brand experience in the second hand market so it's,
I'm really excited about the possibilities and and we have a really big vision for what we're doing I don't I think we Commerce to me feels,
like a term that soap a little bit Limited.

Jason:
[50:41] Totally fair so maybe circular Commerce its,
it's interesting to me though like so we've had a bunch of those Founders from the circular Commerce.
Brands on and like their fundamental problem is not your fundamental like their biggest problem is sourcing,
the goods by getting people to send them stuff and then when they curate it they're mostly interested in,
luxury designer so they end up with a relatively poor yield and they don't have.

[51:13] Any monetization or you know frankly like a ecologically redeeming way to deal with,
all the goods they get that aren't they don't meet their criteria so it's like you you seem like they're like through the Goodwill Network you've got all these stores to put Goods in
you've got a bunch of you do have luxury consumers that are searching for
vintage and value but you also have more pure value consumers you it just seems like it's a really interesting fit because you saw some of the,
problems that are endemic to the re Commerce guys you've got the first gen,
Val you guys like the you know the fast fashion guys who are you know of course making stuff cheap but it's a psychological disaster and they only sell like half of it and the other half ends up in a landfill and all that and then you've got the,
discount guys who I think is the funniest of all I don't know if you follow this but Burlington Coat Factory,
right before the pandemic shut down their e-commerce and they shut it down because they fundamentally couldn't solve what you're doing like they couldn't figure out how to cost effectively make,
product detail pages for all the super thin inventory that they had and so it just interesting like,
because you built this business on top of the Google Network it feels like you got a nice sort of Head Start in the in all three corners of that problem if you will.

Matt:
[52:36] Yeah Jason so first off I know a lot of the players the founders execs at those other places and,
again I want them all to be successful because the more successful the category is it's a tide that will lift all boats and I think we're all being led by the consumer who is voting yes yes yes,
I also think that the consumer,
um is not just the the deal Seeker the value Seeker but it really is a trend ribbon,
style driven younger consumer who if you think about you know the.

[53:19] Tick Tock and Instagram and this this viral social world that we live in where you nobody wants to look the same,
wearing the same things that shopping vintage and second-hand is actually a way to differentiate yourself and show your,
your individual style so it's there's a really interesting marriage there between second hand and kind of social morality,
and what's happening there and then there's also a tell you a more affluent customer or aspirational customer who could Shop full price and does Shop full price but they really care about,
about the impact in the narrative and they want to talk about the story,
where they bought it not just what they bought and so there's it feels like there's this really.

[54:15] Great timing of all three customer segments and then the last thing I tell you is compared to the Discounters.
Do I have read about some of them struggling,
with figuring out e-commerce and I think I've read the rational rationalization was that it's hard to do Discovery online versus in the store.
What I would tell you is that what we're doing augments the in-store thrifting experience at goodwillfinds,
now if you're shopping Goodwill at your local store.
The assortment is very limited it's what just showed up that week or that month as far as donations go but,
you can do that because there are certain categories of people like to touch and feel or try on because fit matters or Texture and finish and,
and material matter you know how home goods and furniture and the like one of those big bulky items that you know are easier to buy and store but to be able to couple that with.

[55:29] Now shopping you know I don't want to say the best but the that e-commerce.
Assortment of other Goodwills across the country.
We're now you're getting access to donations from New York to LA Seattle to Miami,
Chicago to Austin and I mean wow like what a treasure Trove to be able to shop your Goodwill store and go online and get access to all these thrift stores in one place,
in our case I think it's a massive value add and.
Given the fact that the Goodwill brand has been around for 100 years and already has tens of millions of customers shopping their stores you know our primary focus to start is how do we,
how do we complement the in-store shopping experience to those tens of millions of customers to convert them to be multi-channel customers with the brand,
and at the same time how do we compete in the market too.

[56:38] Solicit this this these other two audiences that I mentioned the style and Trend driven younger consumer that's looking for vintage that's looking for.
For differentiated as well as this this aspirational and more affluent customer who loves the loves the purpose loves the mission loves the story of circularity and wants to participate.

Scot:
[57:03] Cool sounds like your
you're fired up and it's going to be exciting to watch the progress we're running up against time but while we have you you've been that this over 15 years the whole e-commerce retail thing what are some of the other Trends you're watching other than this circular kind of recycling element anything
anything interesting on your radar for example do you think the digitally native vertical brand thing has played out or is that still got legs any other trends that are interesting to you.

Matt:
[57:36] Yeah well on DM BB which just a an iteration of DTC.
Did you see to me was always a go to market strategy was never a business model.

Scot:
[57:47] Yeah.

Matt:
[57:49] The the early players the first movers in that space who did the,
you know go to the source and sell an item at the wholesale price versus the retail price because you're cutting out the middleman Zappos is kind of one of the one of the pioneers of that,
um
That was a momentum thing I've always viewed and again kind of sticking to my knitting here in this specialty premium you know Market space.
I've always viewed,
yeah the brand equity which is what we're all striving to create and grow and maintain.
It gets generated by picking an attractive customer,
that you want to obsess about and I don't and attractive I mean somebody that you think is a viable there's enough of them and they're viable to have a long-term relationship with.

[58:56] And obsessing about them to the point where you understand their needs better than they and you can create differentiated product and service,
where,
they fall in love with your Solutions with your customer experience and they want to tell their friends and then you couple that with the right distribution,
so that you can find more people like them which allows you to scale in an efficient manner and direct-to-consumer now going back 15 years,
was just the new go to market to find more like-minded customers to ones that you already had so urban urban already had amazingly strong brands with a lot of brand equity,
so what we did writing the Web 2.0 wave was really just figuring out you know how do we,
how do we reach the same or similar customers and give them a better experience a different experience online than what they experience in store,
and then Mark what was the opposite I got there and we had no physical experience and so the exercise was how do we take this brand love that exists.

[1:00:07] At this website and and translate it into a three-dimensional experience that,
the existing customers would love but would allow us to expand our market and introduce the brand and more people so I yeah so I don't I never saw DM BB by itself as a sustainable business model.

[1:00:27] As far as other Trends in the market today I when I left Walmart I did a talk.

[1:00:37] Where I said I felt like it was an amazing time,
to start a brand and I really meant it and I really believe that the market was was so like there's so much sameness in the market that.
That there's a huge opportunity for four new brands coming to the market Leverage The technologies that have matured and and really differentiate against the incumbents I tell you sitting here right now after.
I feel like consumers.

[1:01:12] Have now accepted the fact that their multi-line store is where they shop for everything.
The whole idea of this retailers essential and that one's not and those shutdowns for a year plus I think really changed consumer.
Perception of where's viable to shop the where it's not and I and so I think the bigger players,
have a massive advantage in this market especially this year with inflation continuing going into a recession I think it's I think this year is going to be really hard,
for smaller players to differentiate and survive so that's more from a consumer lens.
From a technology lens I'm sorry to say Jason but I'm a big believer in AI,
and I think it's early days and what I counseled a lot of folks who are earlier in their career is find a mega technology trend,
in the market that you can get passionate about learning that you think is early Innings and ride it.

[1:02:17] I certainly did that with e-commerce I was.
They're early with the that whole Social Mobile Local,
moment you know that was existing after the iPhone and Facebook launched,
I'm I feel like marketplaces are like halfway up the s-curve I feel like there's still a lot more room to grow and so I'm working on that technology curve right now with goodwillfinds.
But I would say that I don't I'm not a Believer it in web 3.0 today it feels like,
the.com in the late 90s where it was five years too early,
there just weren't enough participants to make it viable I think web 3.0 in whatever form it takes is five years out before becomes something that you could commercially work on.
And then you know I'd say I think the subscription in.
In a lot of categories is having a lot of success right now which is less about technology and more about,
business model but that's that's that's an area as well that I think is worth exploring for a lot of businesses that are trying to figure out ways to monetize Their audience.

Jason:
[1:03:40] Matt that is awesome,
basically we're mostly aligned I'm 100% with you on a I I'm also with you on web 3 / metaverse
being too early the one thing I'm gonna just for the record disagree on is I I can't public admit that marketplaces are thing because that'll
that'll go to Scott said too much if we admit that.
But,
it's going to surprise no one mat that has happened again we've used slightly more than our allotted time so we're gonna leave it with those words of wisdom from you as always if listeners found value from this show we sure would love it if you'd
jump on iTunes and leave us that five star review but Matt,
so awesome to reconnecting and congrats on everything you're doing it's it's fun to watch and and put your point like it's also adding a heck of a lot of value to the world.

Matt:
[1:04:33] Guys I really appreciate the time always great to reconnect congrats on the pot I'm a huge fan and let's do it again at number five hundred.

Scot:
[1:04:44] Sounds good Matt if folks want to find you online or you on the on MySpace where do you hang out.

Matt:
[1:04:52] Yeah have you heard of Tumblr no.
Um yeah I would just say if anybody needs to get ahold of me reach out through Linkedin and my contact information is there.

Scot:
[1:05:06] Sounds good we really appreciate taking time and good luck with the new Venture sounds really exciting.

Matt:
[1:05:11] Thanks guys.

Jason:
[1:05:12] And until next time happy commercing.

Nov 30, 2022

EP299 - Thanksgiving Week 2022 with Rob Garf of Salesforce

A discussion of Thanksgiving Week 2022 from a retail perspective with Rob Garf, Vice President and General Manager, Retail at Salesforce. This is Robs' fourth time on the show, having previously been on episodes 110248, and 282.

Thanksgiving week 2022 will go down as one of the most complicated holiday weeks on record. With covid impacts still in place, a global economic crisis, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, new retailer discounting practices, and new consumer behaviors we have a lot to unpack.

This episodes covers a wide range of topics around the most important shopping week of the year. We make liberal use of real-time data from Salesforce Shopping Insights HQ, which tracks how 1.5+ billion consumers are shaping shopping trends. You can see a real-time holiday dashboard, powered by Tableau so you can interact with the data yourself on the Salesforce Holiday Insights page.

Episode 299 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday November 29th, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Nov 1, 2022

EP298 - Amazon Q3 Earnings

Episode 298 is a recap of Amazon's Q3 2022 Earnings Report.

Episode 298 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Friday October 28th, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Oct 6, 2022

EP297 - GroceryShop 2022 and News Episode 297 is a recap of the GroceryShop trade show in Las Vegas, and the Consumer Brands Executive Summit in Colorado Springs.

We also discuss the latest news (and controversies) around Facebook and TikTok pulling back from some social commerce initiatives (and pressing forward with others).

We cover the Prime Early Access sale and its potential impact on the overall holiday season.

Episode 297 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday October 4, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Sep 27, 2022

EP296 - Guardian Baseball Co-Founder Matt Kubancik 

Episode 296 is an interview with Matt Kubancik (@mattkubancik), CEO and Co-Founder of Guardian Baseball. Matt is a serial e-commerce entrepreneur who was the founder of Street Moda, Co-Founder of SKU Vault, and most recently Co-Founder and CEO of Guardian Baseball.

Mark is an experienced Marketplace seller, and his current business Guardian Baseball is a hybrid seller selling both wholesale and owned brands direct to consumer from a Shopify site, and via multiple marketplaces including Amazon.

Guardian Baseball is an early adaptor of Buy with Prime, and shares in the interview, that they would migrate off Shopify if necessarily to keep using Buy with Prime. He also discusses a number of the current limitations with the Buy With Prime offering.

Episode 296 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Friday September 23, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Aug 20, 2022

Episode 295 is a breakdown of Walmart and Target Q2 earnings, as well as the US Department of Commerce retail sales data for July.

Episode 295 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday August 18, 2022.

 

Aug 1, 2022

EP294 - Amazon Q2 Earnings

.

Episode 294 is a breakdown of Amazon’s Q2 2022 earnings.

Episode 294 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday July 31, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing

 

Jul 7, 2022

EP293 - E-commerce leadership changes and news

Episode 293 previews Amazon no good, dirty, rotten, Q2. Including why Amazon's much hailed SCOT software may have led them astray (not a surprise given the name). We also discuss the recent leadership changes at Amazon, Google, Pinterest, and Bed Bath & Beyond.

Episode 293 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday June 30, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Jun 13, 2022

EP292- Quarterly Recap

Sorry for the delay since our last show. We took a beginning of summer hiatus, and Jason upgraded to a new knee!

This episode was recorded in front of a live audience at the NYC Google HQ, for Zenith Basecamp.

Key Topics discussed:

  • Amazon’s rate of growth declined in Q1, what lies ahead for them.
  • Impact of App Tracking Transparency (ATT) on advertising platforms
    • Shopify vs. Facebook
    • Retail Media Networks
  • Q1 2022 US Department of commerce data and trends
  • Audience questions (including buy now pay later)

If you’d like to follow along, the audience could see this deck during the discussion:

Episode 292 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday June 8, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Apr 29, 2022

Amazon released their Q1 earnings for 2022 on Thursday April 29th. In this episode we do a deep dive into all the details.

Key Topics:

  • Declining macro economics
  • First quarter 1P sales were down year-over-year for the first time in two decades, as it had to comp against a very strong Q1 2021 which was elevated by the pandemic.
  • AWS getting a strong boost from the pandemic.
  • Ads continue to quietly be a bright spot for Amazon
  • Andy Jassy's first annual shareholder letter
  • Amazon's new "Buy With Prime" offering for DTC sites.

Episode 291 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday April 29, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Apr 1, 2022

EP290 - Shoptalk 2022 Recap

ShopTalk held it's first in-person show since 2019, May 27-30th in Las Vegas. The show made the move from the Venetian to the Mandalay Bay. Nearly 10,000 attendees joined more than 600 exhibitors at this years show. Making ShopTalk one of the first industry events to truly feel like it did prior to the pandemic, and living up to the billing as the retail industries reunion. Shoptalk has truly established itself as the preeminent digital commerce event in the US.

In this episode Jason and Scot recap all the major keynotes, trends, and themes from the show. If you wren't able to attend, this show will catch you up. If you did attend, they episode will help you write that event recap you owe the rest of your team!

Episode 290 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday April 8, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Mar 19, 2022

EP289 - ShipBob Co-Founder Dhruv Saxena 

Dhruv Saxena is the co-founder and CEO of ShipBob, Inc. ShipBob is a tech-enabled third-party logistics provider (3PL) that fulfills e-commerce orders for direct-to-consumer brands.

We discuss ShipBob's origin story, how the e-commerce fulfillment industry has evolved, as well as the challenges and implications of Amazon and Shopify's various fulfillment initiatives.

Episode 289 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Friday March 18, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Mar 11, 2022

EP288 - News and Q4 Earnings Reports 

News

Q4 Earnings Reports

Winners

  • Dicks Sporting Goods
  • Walmart
  • Target

Neutral

  • Best Buy
  • Ulta
  • Kohls
  • Gap
  • Nordstrom
  • Ralph Lauren

Losers

  • Dollar Tree
  • Abercrombie & Fitch
  • Macy’s

Episode 288 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday March 10, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Feb 18, 2022

EP287 - Amazon Supply Chain Deep Dive with Marc Wulfraat

http://jasonandscot.com

Marc Wulfraat is President of MWPVL, a global supply chain and logistics consulting firm, and one of the foremost experts outside of Amazon, into Amazons supply chain.

In this episode to do a deep dive into all the elements of Amazon's supply chain, how it compares to other third party logistics providers, and most importantly if and how other retailers should think about competing against the enormous advantage that Amazon's logistics infrastructure provides

Episode 287 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday February 17, 2022.

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Feb 4, 2022

EP286 - Amazon Q4 Earnings 

Amazon released their Q4 (and full year) earnings for 2021 on Thursday February 3rd. In this episode we do a deep dive into all the details.

Key Topics:

  • Amazon North American Revenue grew 18.4% in 2021, which was just above the industry average of 17.9%
  • Amazon has broken out their ad revenue for the first time. In 2021 total revenue was $31.16B growing at 32% Year over Year. Ready Jason’s Forbes Article here.
  • Amazon is raising the rates for Amazon Prime from $119 to $139 per year.

Want to learn about Amazon’s sneaky fulfillment advantage (Amazon Key for Business)? Check out our YouTube video here

Episode 286 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday February 3, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Jan 21, 2022

EP285 - 22021 Full Year and Holiday Data Deep Dive

The US Dept of Commerce December Advanced Retail Sales Data is out, which gives us a full look at 2021 and the 2021 holiday season. So Episode 285 is a data deepdive into 2021.

If you want to follow along, we've made a deck with all the data available at https://retailgeek.com/2021-commerce-recap

Data Sources
US Retail & E-Com Sales Data: US Dept of Commerce
E-Commerce Estimates: eMarketer
Retail Foot Traffic Data: Placer.ai
Web Traffic Data: Similar Web
Holiday Estimates: Adobe, Salesforce, Mastercard

Episode 285 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday Jan 20th, 2022.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Jan 7, 2022

EP284 - 2022 Annual Predictions h

2021 Predictions Recap

Jason:

  1. Made to Order apparel business > 9 figures Yes
  2. Retailer offers viable health alt insurance option to consumers No
  3. Grocery E-Com > 10%  someone deploys(not pilots) MFC Yes
  4. Amazon Shopify Competitor (shipping solution) No
  5. Retail Media > $20B Yes

Bonus – More store closures in 2021 than 2020. No

Jason Total Score: 3 of 5

Scot:

  1. Amazon move to same day prime by opening a huge wave of neighborhood DCs (near DSPs) Yes
  2. Shipping (Shopify) – launch own DSP No
  3. Shopify marketplace No
  4. ‘zero friction addiction’ sticks – I’ve seen 30-40% repeated a lot, I think it’s 60-80%. commerce penetration says at 16% or better in 2021. Yes
  5. spac/ipo? Dnvb wave Yes

Bonus: post-covid anti-consumerism/materialism wave No

Scot Total Score: 3 of 5

We have a tie, including the tie-breaker. Here are some relevent links:

2022 Predictions

Jason:

  1. NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don’t deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022.
  2. Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry
  3. Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022.
  4. Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores
  5. Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired

Scot:

  1. Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS
  2. Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or  Jokr goes out of business in 2022
  3. Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue
  4. Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US 
  5. Fabric gets acquired

Don’t forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.

Episode 284 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 6th, 2022.

ttp://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Dec 21, 2021

EP283 - Year End Review 

It’s our final show of 2021!

We recap the US Dept of Commerce November Advanced Retail Sales Data.

We do a deep dive into the retail industries growth from 2019 through November 2021. In those 23 months, the retail industry grew 22%, historically fast growth. There were clear winners and losers. If you want to follow along on with all the data, here is a visual recap of retail growth 2020-2021. (PDF Download).

We also highlight the six most important trends of 2021.

  • Amazon fulfillment capacity growth (Amazon and Walmart become shipping companies)
  • Social Media becomes the discovery channel for e-commerce (led by live-streaming)
  • Ultrafast delivery services
  • Amazon invents and starts to scale a grocery store (Amazon Fresh) with just walk out technology
  • Retail Media Networks explode, led by Amazon’s $30B in ad sales. Retailers now compete with social media networks for eyeballs
  • Apparel has shifted from designer led to consumer led, as evidenced by the meteoric rise of Shein

We’re so very grateful to our audience, both for the time you have shared with us, and for generous opinions, feedback, and knowledge that many of you have shared. We wish you all the very best holidays and New Years, and look forward to seeing you in 2022!

Episode 283 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, December 21st, 2021

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

Dec 1, 2021

EP282 - Cyberweek Recap with Salesforce's Rob Garf 

Rob Garf (@retailrobgarf) is VP and GM, Retail at Salesforce. Rob returns to the show for the third time (EP249 and EP110) to talk about November, and especially cyber week e-commerce sales.

The Salesforce shopping index combines data and holiday insights on the activity of more than a billion global shoppers across more than 54 countries powered by Commerce Cloud, billions of consumer engagements and millions of public social media conversations through Marketing Cloud, and customer service data powered by Service Cloud.

We cover e-commerce sales in November 2021 vs 2020 and 2019. First mile issues, last mile issues, inflation, winning and losing categories, predictions for December.

Episode 282 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, November 30th, 2021

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Nov 23, 2021

EP281 - Mark Mahaney, author and top internet analyst 

Mark Mahaney is Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI, Research Division, he’s one of the original and longest lasting internet analysts on Wall Street. He recently published “Nothing but Net: 10 Timeless Stock-Picking Lessons from One of Wall Street’s Top Tech Analysts.”

We cover a variety of fun topics including the beginning of his career with with Mary Meeker. His initial evaluation of EBay. His long positions on Amazon, Netflix, and Priceline, and butting heads with Jim Cramer over Google. We also discuss what’s next for Amazon, and where the best investments of the future might be.

Episode 281 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, November 18th, 2021

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Nov 22, 2021

EP280 - Anker Innovations Head of Global Communications Eric Villines

Eric Villines is the Global Head of Communications for Anker Innovations. Anker is one of the most successful brands to be started on the Amazon platform. In this broad ranging interview, we discuss the origin story of Anker, their evolution from early Amazon FBA seller to Global Omni-channel brand. Eric covers their incubator, Anker Innovation, and their Amazon FBA consulting service OceanWing. We also discuss his recent book, Get Funded!: The Startup Entrepreneur’s Guide to Seriously Successful Fundraising.

Episode 280 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday. November 17th, 2021.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Oct 29, 2021

EP279 - Amazon, EBay, Shopify Q3 Earnings 

In Episode 257 we talked about IDFA and the impact of privacy and digital ads, and then on Episode 277 we talked about Supply chain pain (SupplyPain™). Now that we’re in Q3 earnings season we’re seeing those themes play out. This week we dive into the earnings calls from Snap, eBay, Shopify, and Amazon. We also discuss the Rent the Runway IPO.

Episode 279 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday. October 28th, 2021.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

Oct 20, 2021

EP278 - Adobe Holiday E-Commerce Forecast with Taylor Schreiner

In Episode 277 we covered some of the early overall holiday sales forecasts, and the issues likely to impact this holiday season. In this episdoe we get the very first look at Adobe 2021 Holiday Shopping Forecast. This is a deep dive on digital shopping behaviors based on Adobe Analytics, which analyzes 1 trillion visits to retail sites and over 100 million SKUs. We break it all down with Taylor Schreiner, Director of Adobe Digital Insights.

Episode 278 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday. October 14th, 2021.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

 

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